It’s been a trying year for the Beavers. The effects of being left behind out of a power conference and without a home for just over a year are really starting to affect both Oregon State and Washington State this season as they are both struggling mightily in the first 1/3 of the season.
Focusing on the Ducks opponent this week (Hythloday will have his customary film review up on Friday) today I’m simply previewing the Beavers from a numbers stand point. The Beavers are off to an 0-3 start with multi
score losses to former conference member Cal, future conference member Fresno State, and then a blowout loss against B12 contender Texas Tech this past Saturday. As you can imagine the advanced numbers are not kind to an 0-3 team.
Week 1 vs Cal Loss 34-15
Week 1 was a good example of how critical turnovers can be. The Beavers were relatively even against the Golden Bears on a per play basis as Cal only outgained the Oregon State by 0.61 yards. What did the Beavers in and made the score so lop-sided was the turnover margin which Oregon State lost 2-0.
Week 2 vs Fresno State Loss 36-27
This game is a perfect example of why yards per play is a superior box score state versus total yardage. As the Beavers mightily outgained the Bulldogs 528 to 318, but the biggest reason for this wasn’t because the Beavers were playing better, but because they less efficient reaching the same goal.
On a per-paly basis Fresno State actually outgained Oregon State by 0.55 yards. The Beavers put up a decent 6.36 yards per play to score 27 points. But whenever they would let Fresno State get the ball they would let them score easily as Fresno State put up a 6.91 yards per play in large part thanks to 197 rushing yards on 28 attempts. That combined with some special teams gaffs and that’s how you lose by 9 points despite outgaining the opponent.
Week 3 vs Texas Tech Loss 45-14
This game was the absolute shellacking that the scoreboard says it was as Texas Tech outgained Oregon State by 3.43 yards per play. In fact some late garbage time Touchdowns by the Beavers makes it look better than it actually was.
Put it all together and the advanced stat community is expectedly pretty low on this Beavers team right now.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ has Oregon State:
- as the 112th team in the country between Northern Illinois and Tulsa
- below every single P4 team
- Below 5 FCS teams
- 12 of 12 of the old Pac-12 Teams
- 7 of 8 of the new Pac-12 Teams
Jeff Sagarin has Oregon State:
- as the 110th team in the country between Jacksonville State and Austin Peay
- Below 7 FCS teams
- 12 of 12 of the old Pac-12 Teams
- 7 of 8 of new Pac-12 Teams
Put simply, the Beavers are just a bad football team right now. Despite them being Oregon’s oldest rival I don’t take joy in saying that. I truly do hope they can find their footing in the new Pac-12 because right now it doesn’t seem like this game is benefitting anyone.
Should Oregon win this game as comfortably as we expect and be competing for the college football playoff I can almost guarantee that this game will be used against Oregon in a strength of schedule debate
And for the Beavers it goes without saying, but I don’t think they gain anything out of being blown out either.
With no game on the docket for 2026 but both schools working to ensure it gets back on the schedule in the near future maybe a pause is what is needed. With sometime to re-group in their new conference maybe the Beavers can build up there program to be an elite Group of 6 school that can at least compete with the Ducks, akin to future conference mate Boise State.
Because for me personally, I sure enjoyed this game, and this game, and this game, a lot more than this game.
