The Virginia Cavaliers are coming off a crushing defeat at home against Wake Forest last week that put them in the losing column in the ACC for the first time this season. They are now 8-2 (5-1, ACC) entering
a significant game on Saturday at 3:30 PM in Durham against Duke (5-4, 4-1 ACC).
In what first seemed questionable at best, the status for QB1 Chandler Morris to start on Saturday continues to look more and more positive as the week goes on. Morris suffered a late hit against Wake Forest early on in last week’s contest and never returned to the game. That was an injury that Tony Elliott and his team could not bounce back from, and it was a big reason for the loss. Virginia failed to score a touchdown for the first time this season, and went on to lose 16-9 with backup quarterback Daniel Kaelin at the helm of the offense.
The line for this game on Saturday opened at 6.5 with Duke as the favorite. But, as the week has progressed and news about Chandler Morris has remained optimistic, the line has dropped all the way to 3.5 points, now sitting at four according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
With Duke coming off a loss at home vs. UConn as a heavy favorite, it may be confusing as to why they claim the favorite status headed into this one against the #19 team in the country. Well, it seems Vegas and many others have lost confidence in the Virginia offense, even with Chandler Morris in the game. Can you blame them? Virginia certainly has the skill on offense, but they have been consistently halted by opposing defenses since putting up 46 points against Florida State.
Now, this is a “something has to give” game because Duke’s defense ranks towards the bottom of the ACC in just about every defensive statistic, and Virginia’s offense now finds itself towards the middle of the pack. Virginia’s offense will have an opportunity to bounce back and get back on track this week, as Duke has the 14th-rated pass defense in the ACC and the 12th-rated run defense in the ACC.
On the other hand, Duke’s offense has been borderline unstoppable over the last month, putting up 40-plus against both California and Clemson and 34 in a losing effort against UConn. They only accounted for 18 points at home against Georgia Tech a couple of weeks ago, but a couple of bad red-zone turnovers kept them from scoring their usual amount. Darian Mensah still threw for 373 yards, and they had nearly 500 yards of total offense.
Mensah, the ACC’s leading passer with 310.4 yards per game, will be a problem and Virginia’s defense, a unit that has been playing well this season, will have to be up to the test if Virignia wants to pull this one out.
I think Virginia covers and wins this game. A healthy Chandler Morris, a hungry offense that needs to show up after a loss, and a consistent defense in a must-win game. Virginia 28 Duke 24
