Week 5 of the College Football season brings us an amazing slate of games. Mizzou faces UMass on Homecoming and their final non-conference game of the season, but four other ranked matchups highlight this
Saturday’s schedule. FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff heads to Champaign for No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois, and ESPN’s College Gameday is Happy Valley bound for No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State.
Let’s make some picks! (with the odds presented by our partners over at FanDuel Sportsbook).
But first, a standings recap after Week 4:
Stava: 12-12 ATS (19-5 SU)
Deck: 8-11 ATS (13-6 SU)
Gustafson: 7-7 ATS (8-6 SU)
Hurst: 8-7 ATS (10-5 SU)
Matejka: 4-6 ATS (6-4 SU)
No. 20 Missouri Tigers (-44.5) vs UMass Minutemen (6:30 p.m. CST on ESPNU)
Sammy Stava: Central Arkansas might be better than UMass. Allowing 47 points to Iowa is all you need to know about the poor Minutemen. 52-3, Tigers.
True Deck: Iowa hung 47 points on UMass. I think Mizzou’s offense is even better. I think this game has a very strong chance of being over by halftime. 61-10, Tigers.
Matthew Gustafson: This one should get ugly fast, likely mirroring the Louisiana game. The Tigers should have little trouble putting up points against this UMass team, and only a late game touchdown gets the Minutemen on the board. Mizzou gets the win, 55-7.
Nathan Hurst: I really hate picking massive spreads like this because you never really know how soon in the game the favorite’s coaching staff will pull the starters and sit on the score to shorten the game. That said, UMASS is really, really, really bad and I think the Tigers will be able to move the ball and score points even if all they are doing is handing off to Marquise Davis in the second half. Give me Mizzou and the points.
Josh Matejka: I’ll admit, I’ve been a coward when it comes to Mizzou this year. I’ve gone off of Eli Drinkwitz’s past habits of not running up scores, and I generally won’t pick Mizzou to cover in games like this. But when the defense is this good and the offense is firing on all cylinders like it has been, it’s kind of hard to pick against them. I’ll take Mizzou to cover here, if only barely.
No. 21 USC Trojans (-6.5) at No. 23 Illinois Fighting Illini (11:00 a.m. CST on FOX)
Sammy Stava: The Illini should be eager to bounce back after losing 63-10 to Indiana, and it helps that this game is at home. However, USC has enough talent to win on the road, and they simply look like the better team. 37-28, Trojans.
True Deck: I’m 0-2 on matches involving Illinois this season. I think they’ll be hungry following a complete breakdown against Indiana. Illinois still has the opportunity to stay in the rankings with a win. With a loss, its season could fall into a spiral. I’ll take the Illini to win outright, 28-24.
Matthew Gustafson: The Illini are coming off a game where they allowed 312 rushing yards to Indiana, and Waymond Jordan has been a really strong addition at running back for USC. Illinois will keep this one much closer than last week’s debacle in Bloomington, but the Trojans effectively end the Illini’s playoff hopes with a 34-24 win.
Nathan Hurst: Illinois is coming off an absolute shellacking in an embarrassing performance at Indiana last week. I expect them to make a better showing of it at home against USC, that said, I think USC is able to score just like Indiana did. I’ll take the Trojans to cover.
Josh Matejka: It’s always hard to pick against teams like Illinois that just got embarrassed, as they’ll be looking to bounce back. But I find it hard to believe they’ll be able to keep USC out of the end zone enough to get back in the win column. Give me Illinois against the spread with USC winning a tight one.
No. 4 LSU Tigers at No. 13 Ole Miss Rebels (-1.5) (2:30 p.m. CST on ABC)
Sammy Stava: LSU is one of the best teams in the country, and they’ve already been battle tested on the road with the season-opening win at Clemson under the lights. I usually go with the home team in a close game, but Nussmeier and LSU find a way to get it done on the road. 24-20, Tigers.
True Deck: I think this game has potential to be a game of the year candidate. With Chambliss under center for the Rebels, a Division II transfer, looking really strong, and LSU looking like one of the best teams in the country, Oxford is in for a good one. I’ll take the Rebels to squeak it out, 32-31.
Matthew Gustafson: LSU’s resume has been dinged a bit by Clemson’s early season meltdown and a slightly underwhelming win against Florida, but the Bayou Bengals are legitimate playoff contenders. Nussmeier and Chambliss should be an interesting quarterbacks matchup, but I think experience wins out in this one. LSU remains undefeated with a 35-31 victory.
Nathan Hurst: Give me LSU as the underdog here. Ole Miss hasn’t really done anything impressive yet this season and LSU is getting hurt for only beating Florida by 10. I think they win this one by about a touchdown.
Josh Matejka: Wait LSU is a dog here? Why? LSU straight up.
No. 6 Oregon Ducks at No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions (-3.5) (6:30 p.m. CST on NBC)
Sammy Stava: Dante Moore is a heck of a quarterback for Oregon, but he hasn’t proved yet that he can live up to the hype in a tough road environment. Penn State wins at home behind Drew Allar, especially under the lights in Happy Valley. 27-23.
True Deck: I think this should be an exciting game. I think Dante Moore will get the best of Penn State and take it outright. Not to mention that Beau Pribula is a better quarterback than Drew Allar… 31-24, Ducks.
Matthew Gustafson: Oregon has been a steamroller so far this season against subpar power conference opponents, and the team has been waiting patiently to prove their mettle against a top-25 team. I think the Ducks come out of Happy Valley with a statement win, 35-24.
Nathan Hurst: Penn State has looked not great against a terrible schedule thus far, while Oregon has been absolutely dominant. The Lions don’t win big regular season games so I’m going to take the Ducks to win outright.
Josh Matejka: I’ll pick a James Franklin Penn State team to beat a blue blood in the regular season when I see it. Oregon straight up.
No. 17 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5) (6:30 p.m. CST on ABC)
Sammy Stava: Alabama has the talent to pull this off and get back on track, but on the road in primetime between the hedges might be too much to ask. Georgia keeps their 33-game home winning streak alive led by Gunner Stockton. 31-28, UGA.
True Deck: Super unfortunate that this game is going on during the Tigers matchup. I think Georgia takes it, but not without a fight. I think this will be a high scoring game with Kirby Smart having the last laugh. 56-48, Bulldogs.
Matthew Gustafson: Alabama’s two touchdown win over Wisconsin proved they’re still a solid team, but are they solid enough to beat the Bulldogs in Athens? Georgia cements itself as a top contender and the Tide as playoff outsiders with a 31-27 win.
Nathan Hurst: Alabama has historically owned Kirby Smart. I think that ends this week as the Bulldogs host the Crimson Tide. It won’t be a blowout, but Georgia will cover the 2.5 points.
Josh Matejka: The heat is on in Tuscaloosa, and I’m not sure the Tide have enough juice to get back on track in Athens. Georgia covers.
