This weekend (Sat., March 28, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will venture forth to Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington, for UFC Seattle. In the main event, Israel Adesanya looks to avoid a fourth consecutive loss against rising power puncher Joe Pyfer. The co-main event has a similar dynamic, as ex-champ Alexa Grasso aims to return to the win column versus former foe Maycee Barber. The rest of the main card features some established action fighters, so I dare to hope we are in for a fun
night of combat.
Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the three main card fights leading up to the c0-main event:
Featherweight: Julian Erosa (+235) vs. Lerryan Douglas (-320)
Best Win for Erosa? Hakeem Dawodu For Douglas? Cam Teague
Current Streak: Erosa lost his last bout, whereas Douglas debuts having won five in a row
X-Factor: Erosa is a bit long in the tooth
How these two match up: Somebody is getting knocked out.
Erosa is a lanky slugger, a hard-hitting veteran who throws himself into the fire each and every time. His jiu-jitsu and general ground skills are a serious threat as well, but “Juicy J” usually makes his money by pressuring his foes until they slip into a big right hand or heavy knee. Douglas is known as “Gunslinger,” and the knockout artist lives up to his name. He throws crisp punches in combination and has scored each of his last five wins via KO.
Erosa has a strange dynamic all his own. He seems rather prone to getting knocked out quickly, but if he escapes the first few minutes, he can brawl with the best of ‘em. Clearly, the oddsmakers expect Douglas to blow him out of the water immediately, a result that has occurred quite a few times over the years against various levels of competition.
Even given that precedent, I’m not picking a newcomer over Erosa, who I would consider a very hard debut match. Douglas has been knocked out previously himself, and Erosa hits quite hard and has a great deal more high-level experience. It’s not like Erosa is washed up either: he’s won three of his last four and gave Melquizael Costa a real challenge in defeat.
Douglas looks like a solid pickup, but Erosa is a tough introduction to the Featherweight ranks.
Prediction: Erosa via knockout
Middleweight: Mansur Abdul-Malik (-128) vs. Yousri Belgaroui (+100)
Best Win for Abdul-Malik? Dusko Todorovic For Belgaroui? Azamat Bekoev
Current Streak: Abdul-Malik won his last bout and Belgaroui recently won his UFC debut
X-Factor: Both men are fairly green in MMA
How these two match up: Talented-but-flawed Middleweight prospects collide!
Abdul-Malik is very clearly a standout physical fighter, explosive and dangerous on the feet and canvas alike. However, his recent draw versus Cody Brundage demonstrated an inexperienced fighter with relatively few ideas when the early finish doesn’t materialize. Belgaroui, conversely, is an accomplished professional kickboxer with experience in GLORY. He’s massively long and lanky for the division, yet still hits with quite a bit of power.
Naturally, his grappling remains a major question mark at the UFC level.
This fight very much feels like it comes down to Abdul-Malik’s ability to bully his way forward and gain top position. He does not want to be stranded on the outside by a sharper distance fighter. If he’s able to complete the takedown and control position, Abdul-Malik has demonstrated some nasty ground-and-pound in previous fights and could produce a quick finish given Belgaroui has spent most of his career focused on kickboxing.
How good is Belgaroui’s takedown defense then? I was impressed by his work against Bekoev, an accomplished Russian champion with legitimate wrestling prowess. Also, it’s likely that Abdul-Malik — who has far less total combat experience — will struggle a bit when confronted by the rare opponent who can match his reach, which could lead to some bad decision-making and general frustration.
Any bout that hinges so heavily on the takedown could go either way, but I like the look of the rising kickboxer.
Prediction: Belgaroui via decision
Lightweight: Terrence McKinney (-178) vs. Kyle Nelson (+138)
Best Win for McKinney? Fares Ziam For Nelson? Matt Frevola
Current Streak: McKinney lost his last bout, whereas Nelson rebounded
X-Factor: McKinney is prone to self-destruction
How these two match up: One way or another, this bout should wrap up inside a round.
McKinney is pure entertainment. He only knows how to sprint, chasing the finish with reckless abandon whether on the feet or canvas. He seems to have the physical gifts to be more than a lower-tier action fighter, but he’s always a welcome addition to fight cards. He quite literally guarantees a finish!
Conversely, Nelson is a bit of an overachiever. He’s not an overwhelming athlete. Rather, he’s a gritty Muay Thai striker with a deceptively effective lead leg that saps the energy from his opponents. He’s not going to develop into a title contender, but very few would have expected “The Monster” to maintain his UFC contract after his initial 1-4-1 run.
He’s since evened his UFC record by winning four of five with several upsets.
McKinney is a test. At a certain level, fighters are able to withstand his barrage and then batter the hopelessly fatigued “T. Wrex.” Lower level opponents, conversely, are overwhelmed by his raw power and strong wrestling, enabling that immediate finish he chases. The question, then, is where does Nelson stand?
I’d place “The Monster” right smack on the dividing line. He’s definitely tough but will be at a massive physical disadvantage that could see him sparked right away. Simultaneously, he’s a much better technical kickboxer and is pretty good at slowing the pace down. As such, I’m quite torn on the outcome of this bout between underachiever vs. overachiever, giant Lightweight vs. former Featherweight.
I’ll side with the Canadian simply because he’s better than most of McKinney’s recent wins, but I wouldn’t put money on it.
