The exercise of comparing draft prospects has driven me nuts for years. For a time, seemingly every wing with a good vertical was the next Michael Jordan. Tall kid who can dribble? The Next Magic. White forward who can shoot? Larry Bird.
In this draft, AJ Dybantsa has been comped to Tracy McGrady and Andrew Wiggins, who are basically nothing alike. There’s a draft site out there that lists Dybantsa’s comps as McGrady and…Scottie Pippen? What?
Darryn Peterson’s NBA comp, according to this site is Devin
Booker. Maybe?
Cam Boozer got Al Horford, which might make sense if Horford had been a big-time scorer with top-shelf three-point shooting.
Caleb Wilson, who could theoretically be a Wizards target in a trade down scenario, was tagged with Jermaine O’Neal and Chris Bosh, who once again were not very similar as players.
This site says comps for Darius Acuff Jr., the last player FanDuel says has a chance to be the number one pick in the draft, are Tim Hardaway and Damian Lillard, which…I guess? I mean, they’re both smaller guards, but Hardaway played more of a PG role — lower usage, more steals — and didn’t shoot as well. Lillard played in an era where more rigid roles were dying out and did more scoring along with playmaking. And he shot better than Hardaway.
Anyway, I’m a stat dork, so I modified the statistical doppelganger machine I made for NBA players and deployed it on Ye Olde Draft Analyzer (YODA), my stat-based draft prospect evaluation tool. Now, the doppelganger machine doesn’t work quite as well on draft prospects, but I’m still asking it to work with YODA and give us who they think are the top NBA comps for the five theoretical possible Wizards draft picks at number one.
AJ Dybantsa | F | BYU
Top Comp: Blake Griffin. Interesting because one of the first things that jumps off the screen is a difference — Griffin was a big-time rebounder at Oklahoma (17.3 per 40 minutes) and Dybantsa is not. But, the usage, scoring, overall efficiency, and steals are close. Both had superb verticals, as well.
Runners-Up:
- Michael Beasley — impressive college player (also grabbed many more rebounds than Dybantsa) who scored in bunches. Crashed and burned in the NBA.
- Brandon Ingram — lower usage and not as efficient or productive overall as Dybantsa, but similar scoring forward profile.
Darryn Peterson | G | Kansas
Top Comp: Kyrie Irving. Not what I was expecting. But as I eyeball the numbers, I see similar scoring (though Irving was more efficient), steals and blocks. Peterson did more rebounding. Irving did more playmaking. Both missed significant chunks of the season due to injury or health issues.
Runners-Up:
- Jalen Suggs — psychotic competitor who keeps hurting himself by attempting to make plays with complete disregard to his health and safety.
- Jalen Green — similar pattern of production
Cam Boozer | F | Duke
Top Comp: Anthony Davis. Worth mention that basically no one in the database shows up as a strong statistical comp for Boozer. He’s a unique conglomeration of hyper-efficient, high-volume scoring, plus elite rebounding. Davis was a dominating defender with similar efficiency on lower volume. He blocked lots more shots than Boozer. Boozer got more assists. Overall YODA score was pretty similar — both have grades in YODA consistent with being the number one pick in nearly any draft I’ve evaluated.
Runners-Up:
- Marvin Bagley III — This guy was so good at Duke that a number of teams had him rated ahead of Luka Doncic.
- Kevin Love — This one feels the most right. Love was accused of lacking the athleticism to be an effective NBA player. He ended up a five-time All-Star and two-time second team All-NBA. He’d likely have tallied more of each if he hadn’t played for a dumpster-fire franchise. Seriously, one season he was the only member of the Minnesota Timberwolves with an above average PPA. The Wizards should be so lucky.
Caleb Wilson | F | North Carolina
Top Comp: Kevin Love. Which doesn’t feel right at all. Except, the numbers are reasonably similar. Love was the more prolific and accurate three-point shooter, but the rebounding, assists, blocks, turnovers, fouls, scoring and overall efficiency are pretty close. Wilson generated more steals. Fascinating.
Runners-Up:
- Blake Griffin. Again. I’m starting to wonder if the doppelganger machine and YODA are just hitting ctrl+c over and over. But…when I look at the numbers, it makes some sense — Love and Griffin were fairly similar, so if a guy is similar to one, he’s similar to the other.
- Victor Wembanyama — There are some definite differences. The Machines are picking up similar usage, poor three-point shooting (Wemby shot 27.2% from deep in the season he entered the NBA Draft), rebounding, and scoring. Wemby was less efficient and higher usage, and he blocked a lot more shots. There overall YODA scores are very close — Wemby’s season in France wasn’t mind-blowingly great. He still had a score consistent with being the top pick in most drafts, as does Wilson.
Darius Acuff Jr. | G | Arkansas
Top Comp: John Wall. This makes some sense considering they were both coached by John Calipari, who’s still running the dribble drive motion system he used when Wall played for him at Kentucky. There are differences — Acuff was lots more efficient — especially from three-point range. The other stats are pretty similar — Wall had some rebounds, but assists, free throw attempts, and fouls were about the same. Wall produced more blocks and steals, as well as more turnovers. Still, it all tallies up to similar YODA scores — top 3-5 in most drafts, top pick in a few.
Runners-Up:
- Ty Lawson — Superb shooter and playmaker, who played at North Carolina. He had some quality performances in the NBA, though is career got derailed by some personal issues.
- Derrick Rose — Hmm, another Calipari guy. Have The Machines figured it out?
