Saturday’s loss on the road to USC was yet another massive gut-punch for Hawkeye fans. Iowa looked dominant early and the season looked poised to be salvaged. Then they played the second half and the Hawkeyes
looked absolutely lost on both sides of the ball.
College Football Playoff ambitions were already gone, but a second straight loss drops Iowa to 6-4 on the season and firmly back into the territory of fan ambivalence. Another year, another 8-4 season incoming. All upside is off the table and now the Hawkeyes have a real chance at a disaster. After years of pulling the football away as Nebraska approaches to kick it, the Huskers would surely love to end Iowa’s regular season with a big red L on Black Friday.
But despite the proverbial cloud hanging over Hawkeye Nation post-USC, the folks in Vegas have a bit of a sunnier forecast, at least for this week.
The folks at FanDuel Sportsbook opened with Iowa as a 16.5-point favorite over the Michigan State Spartans in their senior day home finale. That’s in a game with a 42.5 point over/under, giving us an implied outcome of Iowa 29.5, MSU 13.
That’s a very big number for Iowa, especially in a conference matchup. But it’s worth noting the Spartans will come to Kinnick riding a 7-game losing streak. MSU is currently winless in the Big Ten and fresh off a 28-10 home loss to Penn State.
Like Iowa, the Spartans have struggled moving the ball this season. Despite returning junior QB Aidan Chiles, Michigan State enters the weekend ranked 108th nationally in total offense and 90th nationally in scoring offense, averaging 335.8 yards and 24 points per game. While the total offense number is slightly better than Iowa’s, the scoring offense has been much worse.
And while the Hawkeyes can live with mediocre offense given a top-10 defense, the Spartans have actually been worse on the defensive side of the ball this season. They’re giving up 31.1 points and 370.9 yards per game, good for 113th and 68th nationally respectively. Importantly for Iowa, the Spartans are 79th nationally in rush defense, giving up more than 150 yards per game on the ground.
This is a potential get right game for the Hawkeyes if there ever was one. But sadly, it comes at a point in the year where getting right means little for the season as a whole. Still, sending out this senior class with a big home win would be a positive. And while the upside is gone and fan apathy may be now setting in, avoiding the bottom falling out and setting that floor at 7 or 8 wins is big for the program long term.
Here’s an early look at the details for Saturday’s matchup with the Spartans.
Date: Saturday, November 22
Time: 2:40 pm CT
Matchup: Michigan State Spartans (3-7, 0-7) at Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4, 4-3)
Location: Kinnick Stadium – Iowa City, IA
TV: FS1
Updated Weather Forecast: mostly sunny with temps in the upper 40s
FanDuel Opening Line: Iowa -16.5, O/U 42.5
