Expectations are tricky for these Falcons. The most dour pessimists have usually undershot this team’s annual win total, even if their predictions of disappointment rung true. The biggest optimists have, year after year, overshot those win totals in a way that may slowly be turning them into pessimists.
What makes 2026 even trickier, waving away the fact that we’re not even at the draft yet, is that there’s a totally new regime in town. Rich McKay has been shunted aside for Matt Ryan and Greg Beadles,
Ian Cunningham has taken over for Terry Fontenot, and Kevin Stefanski has replaced Raheem Morris; only a handful of holdovers like Jeff Ulbrich, Nate Ollie, and Kevin Koger remain. Even the roster is dramatically different already, with the team cutting Kirk Cousins and Darnell Mooney, letting Kaden Elliss and David Onyemata walk, and adding about 20 new players acquired via free agency or trade.
We know the roster will continue to change, from additional free agents to draft picks to unexpected injuries and the inevitable raft of August cuts. But with free agency winding down and the team looking dramatically different already, what should we expect from Atlanta in 2026?
Less variance
The Falcons a year ago were defined by their fundamental roller coastertude. They blew out the Vikings early 22-6, beat the Bills 24-14 in a highly impressive Week 5 victory, and triumphed over the playoff-bound Rams late; they won three of their first five games and their final four. They fought the Super Bowl-bound Patriots to a near-victory they only lost when Parker Romo missed a kick, took the Colts to overtime, and so forth.
In between that, they also were horrible, losing to the Panthers twice (once by a humiliating score of 30-0), getting stomped 34-10 by the free-falling Dolphins, barely putting up a fight in a 20-10 loss to the 49ers, and letting the Jets squeak by them. At one point, they lost five in a row and seven of eight games, and a combination of injuries, poor performance, and puzzling coaching decisions ensured this team was never as consistent as they needed to be.
The new Falcons regime took a look at the highs and lows and decided it was most important to try to not just raise the floor, as Ian Cunningham has said, but find some reliability. With the exception of the relatively unproven Chris Williams, Christian Harris, and Jahan Dotson, everyone the Falcons have signed this offseason has a history of playing solid football and serving as a reliable performer. After their kicking situation was a quagmire through much of last year, reserves from JD Bertrand to Natrone Brooks to Casey Washington scuffled when pressed into action, and the team had to white knuckle too many stretches when a starter was out, there was no way the Falcons were going to half-ass their depth and wave away multiple positions in 2026. They also were not going to let special teams stand as constructed, given that several botched returns and the aforementioned kicking situation helped to doom them.
The end result, assuming Kevin Stefanski and company don’t create chaos of their own, should be a roster that performs more consistently.
Capped ceiling
Any team with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts is going to be fun to watch and a threat to do spectacular things. These Falcons still very evidently are going into 2026 with a certain ceiling.
You could have talked yourself into Atlanta making some real noise in 2024 and 2025—many of us did—if everything went the way it was supposed to. By focusing on smoothing out some of the variance for this team by getting low-ceiling, high-floor players to fill close to half the roster, the Falcons have also made it harder to buy into outsized outcomes. You would have to be able to believe that Michael Penix Jr. will be A) healthy and B) much better in his return, or that Tua Tagovailoa will be greatly improved over the largely listless quarterback we saw a year ago, to really buy into this offense turning into a juggernaut. You would have to believe the defense, which shed players coming off terrific years like David Onyemata, Kaden Elliss, and Dee Alford, will not suffer any real pass rushing productivity losses despite James Pearce Jr.’s uncertain status and the loss of Onyemata and Elliss. And you would have to believe that special teams, which was a major drag a year ago, will be drastically improved.
This team can win 9 or 10 games, lest you think I’m really down on their prospects, especially if the draft and tail end of free agency bring in a few more useful players. I think last year’s team, with all their chaos and boneheaded play, were probably fortunate just to get to eight wins in the first place. A winning season would be a welcome change for a Falcons team that has been a mess for a very long time, so I don’t think anyone’s going to be unhappy if they’re a legitimate playoff caliber team. But it’s hard to see the Falcons winning more than 9 or 10 games with their upside looking a bit capped and lingering questions about positions like inside linebacker, cornerback, and wide receiver, and things will still need to break their way a bit to get to a winning season even in a mediocre NFC South. There’s just not enough elite talent, especially with an iffy quarterback situation, to justify Super Bowl dreams.
The unknown variables
I feel pretty confident saying this is a team with a six win floor barring catastrophic injuries and a ten win ceiling, even before we’ve seen the entire offseason play out. But there are still unknowns we’ll want to revisit before the season starts.
- When will Penix be healthy, and will he beat out Tua for the starting job? If Tua goes into the year as the starter, what does his leash look like if he struggles? Can either of these guys be the players they were supposed to be, say, two years ago?
- Is this team standing pat at wide receiver? Dotson has promise but is not a proven #2 guy, and while Olamide Zaccheaus is a fan favorite and a capable enough #3, he’d be an even better fit as your #4. Are the Falcons planning to add via the draft?
- How has Kaleb McGary’s recovery gone, and is he ready to step back in at right tackle? Who will the Falcons pick up to handle swing tackle duties with McGary’s injury history and Jake Matthews’ age?
- Do the Falcons have enough pass rushing punch to replace Onyemata, Elliss, and potentially Pearce in 2026? Can Nate Ollie work another set of miracles with a group that’s a bit less talented on paper?
- Is this really the plan at inside linebacker? Will the Falcons simply hope that Christian Harris can take a Divine Deablo-sized leap in Atlanta’s defense as a starter, or are they lining up competition for him?
- Is Mike Hughes your CB2 again after a year where he saw both a dip in performance and injuries mar his year? If not, are they going to have a player who can offer more, or will it be a young player set to take their lumps?
- Who is returning for Atlanta, and will they be able to greatly improve on a return game that was lackluster throughout 2025? Do the Falcons have reliable enough special teamers to avoid the lapses and penalties that repeatedly screwed them last year?
- The big one: What will this offense look like under Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees, and will they be able to drastically improve on the inconsistent mess Zac Robinson and company were putting together last year?
Some of these questions won’t be answered until the regular season, while others will be at least partially answered in April-July. Depending on how good those answers are, we may look to adjust our expectations toward the high end of the scale I laid out earlier in this article, or even higher if you’re crazy enough to buy in to this team wholeheartedly after the past eight seasons.
Sound off in the comments and let us know your expectations for 2026, and what X factors you consider most important to this team finding their way to a winning season.
