Coby Mayo is definitely not the biggest star in Orioles camp, but he’s casually become the center of attention. Mayo has put his bat on full display while hitting .500 (13-for-26) with a homer, three doubles and 10 RBIS. But it’s not just his performance at the plate. Fans, media, and Baltimore’s front office are all focused on whether Mayo can find a way to stick at third base with Jordan Westburg sidelined.
You all know the story by now. The Orioles shifted Mayo to first base last year, but the Pete
Alonso signing changed things in a hurry. Now, with Westburg and Jackson Holliday set to begin the year on the IL, Baltimore is providing Mayo another chance to prove he can hande the hot corner.
I have yet to encounter a single person that believes Mayo could contend for a Gold Glove this season. He’s never carried the reputation of a strong defender, and he’s taken his lumps at the position this spring. On the other hand, there is real potential in his bat. Mayo slashed .301.393/.548 with five homers over his final 24 appearances last season. He’s proven everything he can at Triple-A, and there’s reason to believe he can hack it in the majors.
Any type of projection really boils down to the amount of playing time you believe Mayo will receive. That amount of playing time likely depends on whether you think Mayo can handle third base on a semi-regular basis, and that determination likely hinges on the level of tolerance the Orioles will have for below-average defense.
- Baseball Reference: 352 PA, .229/.310/.389, 12 HR, 35 RBI
- ZiPS: 520 PA, .234/.310/.443, 22 HR, 70 RBI
- ZiPS DC: 189, .234/.310/.443, 8 HR, 25 RBIs
Here are Mayo’s projections from Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. I added the ZiPS DC projection because it felt particularly relevant for Mayo. ZiPS DC takes the standard ZiPS projections and factors in pro-rated playing time as allocated by the staff.
ZiPS believes that Mayo could tally 22 homers and 70 RBIs with regular playing time, but ZiPS DC projects less than 189 plate appearances for the 24-year-old. Baseball Reference projected 352 at bats with homer and RBI totals in the middle. Both projections feature similar slash lines.
What do you expect from Mayo this season? Do you think he’ll hit well enough to justify his place at third? Do you think he’ll even get an extended opportunity at third? Let us know!
