The Indianapolis Colts‘ vaunted 2025-26 offense has come back down to earth in recent weeks. After eight straight weeks of historic efficiency, Indy’s offense has caught a turnover bug of sorts.
In the
past two weeks, QB Daniel Jones and company have turned the ball over eight times, double the amount of turnovers they committed through eight weeks prior to their Week 9 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, aka the beginning of such dysfunction.
Despite this, the Colts have gone 1-1 in such games, have totaled 887 yards of offense, and have yet to score less than 20 points in a game this season, regardless if this horrendous stretch of ball security suggests otherwise.
The main culprit of the newfound dysfunction, as per usual, goes to the quarterback. Daniel Jones had seemingly evolved overnight from one of the more turnover-prone quarterbacks across the league to becoming the mere opposite. But, of course, the situation at hand cannot be viewed in a vacuum, as pass protection as a whole has faltered during the same stretch.
Prior to his stop in Indianapolis, Daniel Jones was brutal passing under duress during his career. Before becoming a Colt, Jones was a career 49.8% passer under pressure (384-771) and a 61.9% thrower against the blitz. During his first eight games in Indianapolis, however, Jones posted a 59.0% completion percentage under pressure. This near ten percent jump was good for the 5th-highest rate among quarterbacks through eight weeks, with his 7.8 yards per average being good for 4th leaguewide, and was such a drastic change that fans and analysts alike started to change their tune altogether.
Jones wasn’t just improving as a passer; he was showcasing a newfound confidence in his ability within the pocket, as he’d been sacked just 9 times through eight weeks. Jones had been sacked on just 9.7% of his pressured dropbacks during that stretch, the lowest mark in the NFL and 5.7 percentage points lower than his previous career-low (2021, 15.4%), according to Next Gen Stats.
Fast forward to the conclusion of Week 10, and the Colts’ offense is fresh off of back-to-back performances that instill questions after half a season’s worth of answers. Against the Steelers in Week 9, Jones was worst under pressure in general, whereas against the Falcons in Week 10, Jones was more rattled against the blitz rather than pure pressure.
Against the Steelers, Jones completed less than half of his pressured pass attempts and was sacked 5 times, including two strip-sacks. According to Next Gen Stats, Jones was pressured a season-high 18 times, completing just 6 of 13 attempts for 88 yards and 2 interceptions when under duress (-3.6% CPOE). From a clean pocket, Jones was more effective, completing 25 of 37 passes for 254 yards, one touchdown, and one interception
Against the Falcons, Daniel Jones was under duress early and often, though this time was more of a product of Atlanta’s league-high 49.2% blitz rate. According to Next Gen Stats, Jones was blitzed on over 40% of his dropbacks (46.2%) for the first time since Week 2 and was sacked five times against the blitz in Week 10 against the Falcons, more sacks against the blitz than he had taken through Weeks 1-9 combined (3). Furthermore, Jones was sacked on 7 of his 16 pressured dropbacks overall, including both a strip-sack fumble and an interception. He has now committed 5 turnovers when under pressure over the past two weeks after having avoided a turnover under pressure in Weeks 1-8.
For those keeping track, here’s Daniel Jones’ dysfunctional trend in full (Weeks 9-10): 4 interceptions, 6 fumbles (3 lost), and 12 sacks taken (15 including Week 8 vs Tennessee).
As alluded to, this is not all on the quarterback. The Indianapolis Colts’ offensive line has struggled in pass protection during this stretch, with running back Jonathan Taylor’s early-season heroics regressing to the mean. The highly-regarded unit under OL Coach Tony Sparano Jr. has not played as together as they showed in weeks prior, though at least their run-blocking chops have remained as such.
Sacks are a quarterback statistic after all, but just as it was when this offense was putting up historic numbers, the passing game’s recent warts are a collective issue. Although Jones may deserve his fair share of the blame, he is also the reason they’ve gotten to overrated talks. The goalposts are moving with each step back, but Jones and Co. continue to find a way. During the past two weeks, he and this Colts offense have clawed their way back after seemingly trying to give the game away, winning once and coming just short in the other.
This recent stretch hasn’t been pretty — it’s even been concerning at times — but there’s no reason to hit the panic button, especially after Jones’ bloodied effort to tie and eventually win the game versus Atlanta. After a game that mimicked Week 9’s uncharacteristic inefficiency and carelessness, Jones delivered multiple gotta-have-it moments with pure will. Tasting blood with each breath as he led his team to free football across the pond, toughness has never been a concern with Jones, and neither has his down but never out mentality.
Thankfully for Shane Steichen, Daniel Jones, the offensive line, and the rest of this offense, the Colts get to leave Berlin, Germany, with a much-needed bye week awaiting them.
