We are nearly through 10 weeks of the 2025 NFL season, and it is a great time to take a look at the AFC playoff picture. It is rather early, but we have three teams at the top of the AFC with an 8-2 record. The Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and our Denver Broncos (Is it 2013 again?). After that, you have several teams fighting for a wildcard spot and an AFC North division title that could go to a team that started 1-5.
Oh, and if the playoffs started today (they do not), the Kansas City
Chiefs would be out of the playoffs.
It is not how any of us would have predicted the AFC to look like at the beginning of the year, but that is how it stands currently. So, let us go over each playoff-contending team in the AFC and discuss their outlook moving forward.
Division Leaders
1. Indianapolis Colts (8-2): Their magical run continues in a large part due to an MVP-caliber season by running back Jonathan Taylor. He leads the NFL in rushing with 1,139 yards, has 15 rushing touchdowns, and is coming off a game where he rushed for 244 yards on the ground vs. the Falcons. They will go as far as Taylor will carry them.
Daniel Jones hasn’t been as good recently, but his performance is another reason why the Colts sit at the top of the AFC right now. If he and Jones continue to play well, they will be a tough matchup for whoever faces them moving forward.
With that said, they’re heading into their bye week knowing they have a tough stretch of games upcoming. Fresh out of their BYE, they will head to Arrowhead in what figures to be a cold late November game vs. the Chiefs, host the Texans and their tough defense, then have back-to-back road games against the Jaguars and Seahawks. Those four games will be a tough test for the Colts and may ultimately decide if they keep the #1 seed or not.
2. Denver Broncos (8-2): The Broncos, led by their top-ranked defense and 4th quarter heroics of quarterback Bo Nix, have the Broncos as the number 2 seed in the AFC and at the top of the AFC West through 10 weeks of the season. While it may not always be pretty, they have won 7 straight games and set themselves up in a great position to make the playoffs this season.
Where they ultimately finish likely depends on the play of Bo Nix and the Broncos’ offense. Their defense is elite, but at times, the offense has struggled to put points up on the board. If that continues, they may fall in the standings a bit, but if they turn the corner, they’re a true Super Bowl Contender in the AFC.
Looking ahead, they have a key divisional matchup vs. the Chiefs this Sunday. It’ll be at home a chance to put the Chiefs back at .500 at 5-5 while the Broncos would improve to 9-2. However, a loss would get the Chiefs back to 6-4 and right back into the AFC West conversation. After that game, they have their much-needed BYE week before back-to-back winnable road games vs. the Commanders and Raiders. They’ll then host the Packers and Jaguars before another key Christmas Night game vs. the Chiefs.
3. New England Patriots (8-2): Probably the biggest surprise thus far has been Mike Vrabel’s New England Patriots. They beat the Bills in Buffalo, sit at the top of the AFC East, and second-year quarterback Drake Maye is playing damn good football right now.
They have a 2 game lead in the win column over the Bills right now and a comfortable lead in the division. Vrabel has this team playing tough, much like he did with the Titans, but now, he is paired with a talented young quarterback having a breakout year. They’re playing good football and may have the best odds of being the number one seed in the AFC.
A big reason why I believe they have the best odds for the one seed is their favorable schedule. They host the Jets, travel to Cinci to take on the Bengals, then host the Giants, have their BYE week, then finish out the year vs. the Bills, Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins. Not exactly a tough road ahead for the Patriots.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4): They’re coming off an awful showing on Sunday Night Football and suddenly have the Ravens on their tail as we head into the second half of the season.
The Steelers started the year with a 4-1 record but have lost 3 out of their last 4 games and appear like a team that may have a second-half collapse if they don’t figure things out. Aaron Rodgers is 41 years old, they lack playmakers on the offensive side of the ball, and their defense is not the top-ranked unit that we have known in the past. They’re fortunate to be in the AFC North right now because they’re currently playing like a fringe playoff team.
Looking ahead, they host the Bengals, before traveling to Chicago to take on the Bears, host the Bills, play in Baltimore, host the Dolphins, before having back-to-back road games against the Lions and Browns, before finishing up the year hosting the Ravens in a game that could determine who wins the AFC North.
Wild Card Teams
5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3): Despite the Chargers suffering their usual injuries, they sit at 7-3 due to Justin Herbert, a productive run game, and a tough defense. They, at times, can look like one of the best teams in the NFL, then the following week, play bad football and lose to a team they should beat. Despite that, they are very much in the AFC West conversation and are right behind the Broncos for the division lead.
Looking ahead, they will be tested in the coming weeks as they’ll face several contending teams in the second half of the season. This coming week, they’ll head to Jacksonville to take on the Jags, have their BYE week before hosting the Raiders, and then the reigning Super Bowl Champion Eagles. Then they finish the year with road games in Arrowhead vs. the Chiefs, in Dallas, host the tough Texans defense, before finishing out the year with a road game vs. the Broncos that should have playoff implications.
6. Buffalo Bills (6-3): The Bills were thriving after their big win against the rival Chiefs last week, where they made the statement that they’re the team to beat in the AFC. Well, they followed that win up with an embarrassing effort in Miami, where they were blown out by the two-win Dolphins.
Despite this loss, they still have Josh Allen and have a comfortable lead in the wildcard standings. They will need the Patriots to trip up in the coming weeks and go on a win streak of their own if they want to win the AFC East this season.
Moving forward, the Bills have a tough stretch of football upcoming. This coming week, they host the Bucs before traveling to Houston and Pittsburgh. They then host the Bengals before two more back-to-back road games vs. the Patriots and Browns before finishing out the year with home games vs. the Eagles and Jets.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4): The Jags are still clinging on to the final playoff spot despite a heartbreaking loss to the Texans on Sunday, where they blew a double-digit 4th qaurter lead while facing backup quarterback Davis Mills.
With the way they are playing, I am not sure that they are a playoff team, and on top of that, they have some ascending teams behind them ready to take their spot in the playoffs. The Chiefs, Texans, Ravens, and hell, maybe even the Bengals have a shot to leapfrog them in the standings.
The Jags will host the Chargers this Sunday before having back-to-back road games vs. the Cardinals and Titans. Following that, they host the Colts and Jets before having road games against the Broncos and Colts before finishing out the year vs. the Titans.
The Rest
8. Kansas City Chiefs (5-4): It’s hard to believe that the Chiefs are currently out of the playoffs and could fall to 5-5 if they lose to the Broncos. That’s a bit of a must-win game for them if they want to win the AFC West once again this season. They also have tough games against the Broncos, Colts, Texans, Chargers, and Cowboys remaining on their schedule. We’ll see which Chiefs team shows up coming out of the BYE week.
9. Houston Texans (4-5): They kept their postseason hopes alive with a comeback win vs. the Jags. They’ll get C.J. Stroud back from a concussion and look to make a second-half run for a wildcard spot. They have a great defense, and as we know, that can win you some games as we head into the later parts of the season.
10. Baltimore Ravens (4-5): After starting the year 1-5, they have won three-straight games and are right behind the Steelers, who have lost 3 out of 4 games. It seems like they are ascending while the Steelers are descending, and I don’t think it’ll be long before we see the Ravens in the division leader category.
11. Cincinnati Bengals (3-5): Despite their record, they are technically not out of the AFC North race. While they have a VERY bad defense, Joe Flacco added some life to this offense, and they can score points with anyone. While it is a long shot, they can go on a run and challenge for the AFC North title.
