The Spurs are on a seven-game win streak and seem to be peaking at the right time, just as the playoffs near. They’ve looked like one of the best teams in the league for a while, but they have been playing like a true contender since the All-Star break and have fully separated themselves from the pack of teams below them in the West.
There are many reasons why the team seems to not only have a high ceiling but has looked more stable recently, from improved individual performances to pristine chemistry.
One of the more underrated causes for the steadiness it has been displaying has been the optimization of some lineups. So let’s look at what has been working and why.
The new starting lineup is a juggernaut
With Harrison Barnes struggling, Mitch Johnson decided to start Julian Champagnie and have the veteran forward come off the bench. The results have been great. Since the change, the new starting lineup of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Champagnie, and Victor Wembanyama has outscored opponents by over 21 points per 100 possessions, a ridiculous amount. For the season, that group sits with a 17.7-point net rating, one of the best among units that have played at least 100 minutes together.
The Spurs’ previous starting lineup was also among the best, but not as effective as this new group. There are some weaknesses to this unit, particularly against opponents who have big forwards, but the shooting is a major plus, as San Antonio connects on 41.7 percent of its three-pointers with those five players on the floor. It remains to be seen whether rebounding will be an issue with this configuration against elite opponents, but the success it has had so far suggests Mitch Johnson was right to make the change, and the fact that he doesn’t over-rely on any lineup allows him to adjust.
A scoop of French Vanilla is fine, but don’t overdo it
One of the most intriguing aspects of the Luke Kornet signing in the offseason was the potential for him to not only back Victor Wembanyama up but also play next to the star center. Kornet had done it successfully with Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford in Boston and his ability to slot in with another big gave the Spurs the potential to play jumbo lineups. The duo even got a nickname: French Vanilla.
The reality hasn’t been as exciting as the idea. The Spurs simply can’t score enough with both centers on the floor, posting a sub-100 offensive rating. That main reason for the struggles won’t surprise anyone: lineups with both in them struggle to shoot, especially from distance, where they connect on just 26.4 percent on three-pointers. Wemby is not as reliable as the Boston bigs from long range, and adding a non-shooter like Kornet to groups that likely feature others hurts the spacing in general. The minutes for the combination are down in the post All-Start stretch, which isn’t surprising.
Those lineups could still have a place against specific matchups, which is why it’s good that they haven’t been scrapped completely. They are great defensively, allowing just 103.5 points per 100 possessions, and they dominate the offensive glass, with the Spurs recovering 41 percent of their misses. If some of those second-chance opportunities turn into points, the offense might improve. As a change of pace option rather than a go-to strategy, it could have a place in the offseason in short stints.
The Spurs are slowly figuring out the non-Wemby minutes
Like most teams, the Spurs have struggled to make units that don’t feature their superstar work. It’s not a huge issue when Wembanyama plays heavy minutes, as the Kornet-led lineups are just expected to keep pace for short stints instead of vastly outscoring opponents, but San Antonio can’t afford to have combinations that are liabilities, and some of the lineups they were using were just that.
Before the All-Star break, the most used lineup featuring Kornet and at least two other bench players consisted of the big man, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Stephon Castle, and Julian Champagnie. It bled points, getting outscored by 17 points in just 32 minutes. Granted, no sweeping conclusions can be drawn with such a small sample size, but in general, units featuring Kornet, Castle, and Harper struggled. The offense simply wasn’t good enough, largely because opponents could simply wall off the paint.
The apparent solution has been to have De’Aaron Fox or Devin Vassell share minutes with Kornet, Harper and Keldon Johnson, the three main bench rotation players. Post All-Star break, the most used Kornet plus at least two bench players unit has featured the two young guards, Keldon and Vassell, and has only been outscored by six points in 27 minutes. The second most used has Harrison Barnes and Fox along the bench trio, and has outscored opponents by two in 21 minutes. After that, there’s a unit featuring both Harper and Carter Bryant that has been a mess, but won’t likely be used much in the postseason.
It can’t be stressed enough how noisy the data of lineups that only share the floor for a few minutes a game can be, but good coaching staffs notice patterns and make small adjustments to try to win on the margins. Some teams are probably going to outscore the Spurs when Wembanyama isn’t on the floor, so the goal is to find units that can hold the fort and phase out those that can’t. It seems that Johnson is doing just that as the playoffs approach, which provides even more reason for optimism about a deep run.
