Perspective Check: Four teams have more wins than the Cubs. Two teams have as many wins as the Cubs. The Cubs are on pace to win 90.4 games. Fangraphs projects the Cubs at 87 wins. On the one hand, that feels like a bucket of cold water being dumped on them. On the other, most of us have paid pretty close attention to this Cub team and understand a lot of what goes into that model. I’d still take the over on that, but also I very definitely get it.
I think the more important thing from the Fangraphs
projection is that they project the Cubs to have the seventh best record. They do have the Yankees and Phillies, presently tied with the Cubs, finishing ahead of them. That seventh best record earns them the second Wild Card. The Cubs finish three games clear of the next closest team in those projections, across baseball. So in one sense, Fangraphs views seven teams as separate from the rest. You can argue that there are tiers within the top seven and I won’t argue. But, the seven teams are clearly separated from the rest.
Fangraphs is using data modeling to make those projections. I would generally expect their projection to basically just regress a whole lot of things towards the middle. I can’t even imagine the chaos that would ensue if data modeling was the way things play out. Visualize the Fangraphs standings as the actual final standings. The NL is more or less fine. Five teams at 87 wins or more. The Marlins get in as the sixth NL team at 84 wins. That’s all fine and dandy.
But turn your attention to this hypothetical data model come to life. The Rays win 90 games, nipping Yankees by one game to win the AL East. The Yankees eat a lot of frustrating humble pie as the top Wild Card at 89 wins. The Mariners win the West at 84 wins, again just edging out their second place team, the Rangers at 83 wins. The Central? Won by the Guardians. At 81-81. Sorry White Sox, we can assume their modeling places a lot of value on recent years and so they have you tailing all of the way down to 79 wins, despite having 48 in the bank (at a .516 pace). The final playoff team? The Red Sox with 80 wins.
If you believed that 80 wins was a playoff team, almost no AL team would trade any meaningful players at the deadline. Injuries or prolonged slumps would decide winners and losers. Every game for almost every AL team would have increasingly profound implications. It would be a chaotic mess and probably a lot of fun to watch.
Spoiler alert, all of these models eventually fall apart. Again, the one thing I take from that, flaws and all, the models definitely see the Cubs above the cut line for the better teams. You didn’t expect 500 words plus in the perspective check, but here we are. Flaws and all, yes I’m repeating it, the Cubs are in that top group. They are who we thought they were. Better than the field, not a potential champion. The one caveat ties back to the White Sox. A reason why the model keeps the Cubs up there is past success. I imagine their computers don’t entirely know what to do with a constantly evolving pitching staff.
On the field, this was a fairly typical Cub game. Their beleaguered pitching staff allowed three more homers. The good news was they were all of the solo variety. They allowed 11 hits and three walks, but only the three solo homers. After falling down 2-0, it did feel like the Cub offense was back on vacation. Hat tip to Miguel Amaya for getting the offense started. I note that this is twice for him on this road trip. He had a two-out single in the fifth. A walk for Pete Crow-Armstrong and a single by Seiya Suzuki got Amaya in and the Cubs were back in the game.
That inning felt huge. The way this offense tends to disappear, it reminds me of the old Cub curse and the way things snowball for this organization. Like it is a living, breathing thing despite how silly that is. This team is somehow both one of the best offenses in the league and belonging on a milk carton for several games at a time every 10-15 games.
Carson Kelly homered in the sixth and Ian Happ had an RBI double. It feels like maybe I’m right that we are seeing the start of a Happ hot streak. He’s due for a long ball. After Drew Pomeranz allowed a homer in the bottom of the sixth to tie, Alex Bregman had the kill shot. A two-run homer with one out in the seventh that provided the margin of victory.
So pleasant to see the team come off of the mat and bounce back for what felt like it might be back-to-back losses. Friday’s game was closer than the final score for most of the game. And then, it was so pleasant to see the bullpen finish it out without allowing any runs (despite walking a tight rope).
I’ll note here that in the comments section to the Thursday game in Baltimore (Game 93), I broke down the blown saves. I would not throw that around as the barometer of the Cub bullpen being bad. Yes, the blown save in this game was number 17 and yes, that’s a large number. There were two games in which they blew multiple save opportunities, so there are only 14 games in which they’ve blown saves. Then on top of that, they won a small handful of those games. And then only a small handful of those saves were blown in the ninth inning or later. One of those blown saves was actually in the fifth inning. More than one was in the sixth. This game? A blown save in the sixth, three holds afterwards and then an actual save.
The bullpen has definitely struggled, but the blown saves aren’t really the metric that captures it best. I’ve talked about it all year, there haven’t been many spots like this where the Cubs lead after six (or in this case top of the seventh) and then have to throw three no or low scoring innings to secure a save. If Mariano Rivera was on this team, in his full prime, I think the team would only be a couple of games better. Blown saves makes our knee jerk be that this is about Daniel Palencia not being healthy and effective. The reality is, the Cubs have struggled to consistently get outs across all nine innings of the game. Literally, any consistently effective pitcher would improve this team. That would be true if they typically pitched in the first inning, the sixth inning or later.
Three Positives:
- Michael Busch, three hits, one a double. He scored a run.
- Carson Kelly, two hits, one a homer.
- Alex Bregman had a walk and a two-run homer.
- Obligatory Pete Crow-Armstrong. He drew two more walks. Finding ways to help the team, even when he’s cooled off for a couple of days. The strong plate appearances suggest he may break back out at any second.
Game 95, July 11: Cubs 5, Reds 3 (53-42)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Alex Bregman (.249). 1-4, HR, BB, 2 RBI, R
- Hero: Carson Kelly. 2-4 (.184), HR, RBI, R
- Sidekick: Ian Happ (.121). 1-3, BB, RBI (5-14, 2B, 2 BB over last four games)
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.141). 0-4
- Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.102). 0-4
- Kid: Drew Pomeranz (-.098). IP, 5 BF, 2 H, BB, ER
WPA Play of the Game: Alex Bregman’s two-run homer in the seventh. (.285)
Reds Play of the Game: JJ Bleday’s lead-off homer in the sixth tied the game at three. (.170)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 94 Winner: Shōta Imanaga received 26 of 40 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +24
- Carson Kelly +17.5
- Michael Busch +14
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Trent Thornton +12.5
- Edward Cabrera -9.5
- Phil Maton -10
- Dansby Swanson -11
- Seiya Suzuki -11.5
- Caleb Thielbar -14
Up Next: Game three of the weekend series, game six of the six-game trip, and the last game before the All-Star break. Matthew Boyd (4-1, 4.31) gets the start for the Cubs. He’s 4-0 with a 3.25 ERA over his last seven (that incorporates all but his rough first start of the season. He’s allowed three runs in 15.2 innings since returning from injury. Lefty Andrew Abbott (5-5, 3.92) starts for the Reds. He is 1-2 with a 3.76 (38.1 innings) over his last seven. Last time out, he allowed three over six innings for a minimum quality start, but lost to the Phillies. He threw 5.2 scoreless against the Cubs on May 5 in Wrigley Field.
Find a way, get a win, win the series. Win the road trip.
