Liverpool entered the match hoping to find their footing in the Premier League against bottom-of-the-table Nottingham Forest and were unable to get the job done. Overrun feels like too strong a word, but
this is one of the few results over this rough patch where I’m more apt to tip my cap to the opposition. What took place on the pitch was complicated, but the results are simple: Liverpool were beat, at home, by Forest. Let’s take a closer look at what happened.
Winners and Losers
Winners
Sean Dyche
The Forest manager really deserves a lot of credit because the match essentially ended up the way he would have liked: a committed Forest denying Liverpool space and ensuring that they kept a clean-sheet. Perhaps it’d be a stretch to think he expected a win – and one where the scoreline likely flatters Forest if we look at the run of play. But it’s undeniable that his brand of football – absorb pressure and try to nip something from either a counter or a set-piece – is kind of the blue print for everyone looking to take down this Liverpool side. I’ll now send my computer through a disinfectant bath because I can’t believe this performance is making me give credit to Sean Dyche.
Narrative
We’ll go deeper into it in a later section but this match had everything: Liverpool being caught on a set-piece, VAR working against (and in favor) of Liverpool, and the inability to reverse a deficit. Liverpool’s season, in a nutshell, felt pretty well-contained within the match’s first 50 min.
Losers
Liverpool
It was a bad result which compounds the run of form. This was probably their best chance at getting a result to right the ship, but things didn’t fall their way. Opta, again, has LFC underperforming their xG. Which passes, for me, the eye-test: Liverpool had chances. They weren’t clear – and I wouldn’t wager many of our opportunities came with clear looks given the opposition set-up feels predictable for us at the moment – but we could have and probably should have scored more. It feels like bad luck but after a string of such results, there has to be a reconsidering of the tactical approach.
Talking Tactics
Liverpool’s set-up, I think, highlights an issue with the tactical balance. Today, I’ll highlight that Arne Slot opted to start two midfielders – Dominik Szoboszlai and Curtis Jones – in what looked like an experimental rotation of right-backs/right-sided midfielders. It’s possible that this deployment was meant to disguise that Liverpool were looking to add bodies in the midfield to force movement from Forest. And it’s tough to say that it didn’t work from a chance creation standpoint – again, per Opta, Liverpool had approximately .6 more xG on the day.
But it is reflective of a clear approach of seeking playmakers/offensive-minded players to remain on the pitch in order to unlock the low-block. Which, I think, has lead to the team being much more susceptible to being countered/falling victim to second-ball lapses in the box following a counter.
I’m not a tactician and I do think Conor Bradley being unfit throws a massive wrench here – though, it must be noted, that Joe Gomez was available. Still, it feels like there are some tweaks that need to be made to try to force more space in the box and create more overloads in the areas of the pitch that might better serve the team.
Is the answer going more defensive and encouraging a team to pull out of their defensive posture? Maybe, though I think it’ll both be difficult to do against a team like Forest who is fighting for survival and be a tough pill to swallow for Liverpool fans who want to see the likes of Alexander Isak, Hugo Ekitike, Florian Wirtz, and Mo Salah all lighting up the scoresheet. Perhaps, though, it might be worth it to tilt the balance of play back to better support the backline.
Lastly, and this isn’t a knock on Milos Kerkez, but I did find our tactical set-up to be a bit strange in that the left-back often found himself further central and forward than Cody Gakpo. The commentary noted that those moves meant that the winger found himself with more defenders – usually Kerkez’s – squaring up to him. That was true, but I also didn’t feel a lot of trust from Gakpo in terms of releasing Kerkez, allowing his defender to rightly sag on the coverage. Lots of ifs here for me, but I’m mostly left wondering if the Hungarian where in better form would this wrinkle have worked out differently?
Dissecting the Narrative
Lots of Narrative stuff today but I want to focus on the form of three players: tMilos Kerkez, Mohamed Salah, and Alexander Isak. On the former, I thought he did well and while the run of play would maybe make that unremarkable, I would venture to say his performance was solid. Shame that the results meant he could not stay on the pitch longer as I think his confidence could do with being able to see out a full 90. I also would love to see if we could put him in a better place in terms of his understanding with his partner on the left wing in order to get more fluid attacking movement. But I felt he looked decent on the day.
Mo Salah looked like he was much sharper and, I feel, is unlucky to not have had an assist (had his ball in the first half fallen to anyone but Kerkez, ironically, I think he’d have gotten one). His touch and smoothness on the ball also looked great. And if we’re considering the understanding he’s built with Szobo, I expect things to get better. In fact, if Ekitike and Salah had a better understanding, that backheel flick from Dom might have resulted in a goal.
In terms of Isak, I think he was marked out of the game by Dyche. This is perhaps the biggest part of the gameplan that Forest needed to get right and it worked. Isak ended up with the fewest touches on the pitch by the time he departed, which signals a lack of service. I wonder what this match might have looked like had Florian Wirtz been available and provided more direct playmaking potential in the midfield with Szobo at right-back. Perhaps the balance might have worked better. No way to know for sure, but getting the big Swede service is a problem that Slot and Co. will need to sort in order to right the ship.
All of this to say that while I understand the concerns given this run of form, I’m feeling like this is one of those cycles that tends to hit clubs not named Manchester City every few years where it feels like every inch of variance gained to reach the mountaintop is paid back in full to the Return-to-the-Mean data gods.
It isn’t going to be satisfying for fans – and, perhaps, enough to save the jobs of those in charge – but it does provide some context for why the results aren’t lining up with what we’re seeing on the pitch: a team that, yes, maybe lacks some of the characteristic fortitude of past versions but also still puts in a shift; a team with the individual quality to create chances but seem to be on a weird run underperforming on those chances; and one where even the things out of their control, such as poor bounces or seemingly conflicting VAR decisions (I wanted to avoid discussing this for my own sanity) feel to all come up against the team.
All of this in the backdrop of a club managing their way through grief. I don’t know how to solve that without time. And, if I’m being honest, my hope is this group gets that time to make it right.
What Happens Next
The fixtures are going to come thick and fast and, unfortunately, it looks like the cups – FA and Champions League – are what might be on offer to save the season. Top Four will be a dogfight and while it’s still early enough to turn it around, we’re closing in on the part of the fixture list where we can approach the table with more firmness. Liverpool, to put it plainly, are quickly running out of room to find something positive out of this season. Things have to improve and quckly.
