Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, November 15 at 4:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPNU
- Location: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium — Greenville, NC
- Spread: East Carolina (-3.5)
- Over/under: 58.5
- All-time series: East Carolina leads, 17-8
- Last meeting: East Carolina 47, Memphis 45 — October 15, 2022
- Current streak: East Carolina, 2 (2021-22)
Setting the scene
It’s a chaotic November for the American Conference. There are five teams wielding exactly one conference loss and then one with two conference losses, all eyeing an elusive conference championship and potential
College Football Playoff spot. East Carolina (6-3, 4-1 American) falls into the first bucket. Memphis (8-2, 4-2 American) falls into the latter.
This is a high-stakes matchup for both teams to keep their conference championship prospects alive. Memphis’ took a significant hit last week after its rally vs. Tulane fell just short. East Carolina’s chances are quietly growing after three-consecutive double-digit victories. It should be rowdy at Dowdy this Saturday as the Pirates look to remain undefeated against the Tigers in the 2020s.
Memphis Tigers outlook
Memphis was in prime position for a College Football Playoff appearance, cemented in the playoff committee’s initial mock bracket. The Tigers were in a de facto win-and-in scenario, but that is no longer the case. Memphis dropped a 38-32 heartbreaker to Tulane at home last Friday, snapping a 12-game win streak at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
Under sixth-year head coach Ryan Silverfield, the Tigers branded themselves as the ultimate comeback team this year, erasing an 18-point deficit to Arkansas and a 14-point fourth quarter deficit to South Florida in key home victories. Memphis trailed Tulane by 21 yet gave itself two opportunities to win with a fourth quarter touchdown. The Tigers ultimately fell short, and they’ll need to win out and receive some help to qualify for their first conference championship game in six years.
It has been a recurring theme for a month, but the question remains — what does Memphis’ quarterback situation look like? Brendon Lewis has started all 10 contests, but he suffered an ankle injury against UAB on Oct. 18 and reinjured it Oct. 31 at Rice. Lewis powered through it all, setting a career-high 317 passing yards on a 29-of-34 showing in a noble effort against Tulane. However, he did not finish the game as backup Arrington Maiden guided the Tigers’ last-ditch effort at the comeback.
With Lewis’ status uncertain, three different quarterbacks could start Saturday — Lewis, Maiden, and AJ Hill. Memphis rotates between Maiden and Hill as Lewis’ backup, evaluating several factors including what the defense gives. The true freshman Hill has exhibited more as a passer this season, while the redshirt freshman Maiden is an effective runner like Lewis, scoring a 21-yard rushing touchdown last week.
Regardless of quarterback, Memphis looks to regain its presence on the ground after a few difficult weeks getting the running backs going. The Tigers are one of 30 FBS offenses averaging at least five yards per carry as a team, and they channel this effective run game through the duo of Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers Jr., who pick up 6.0 and 5.8 yards per rush, respectively.
Another key component to this offense is the American’s leading receiver Cortez Braham Jr. Offering 705 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, Braham has become an electrifying presence in the offense — making contested grabs and burning coverage on a regular basis. He totaled 11 receptions for 113 yards a week ago, while Jamari Hawkins shined with 98 yards as the Tigers’ other featured receiver.
It’s been an up-and-down year for the Memphis defense, and the unit aims to get back on track after surrendering over 30 points in three of its last four games. The Tulane game was an interesting case study on this unit as the Tigers played their absolute worst half of the year in the first half, surrendering 35 points to Tulane. But in the second half, they played some of their best football, forcing routine three-and-outs and limiting the Green Wave to a lone field goal.
Inside linebacker Sam Brumfield is a commanding presence in this bunch, attaining team-highs in tackles (77), tackles for loss (13.5), and sacks (4.5). With Brumfield leading the way, Memphis tallies over seven tackles for loss per game as one of the most invasive fronts in college football. It’s a three-level effort with strong safety Chris Bracy and defensive William Whitlow Jr. as frequent guests in opposing backfields. Memphis can also make up for an 86th-ranked passing defense thanks to its sheer turnover output. The Tigers are 15th in the FBS with 17 takeaways, and they never lost a turnover battle until last week.
East Carolina Pirates outlook
East Carolina didn’t make as much noise as the other American contenders in the non-conference slate, dropping a close finish to NC State on Week 1 and bowing out to BYU in Week 4 to enter conference play at 2-2. Perhaps that’s why the Pirates are the overlooked dark horse in the conference, but if the cards fall their way, a championship could be theirs for the taking.
ECU’s lone conference slip-up was a 26-19 road defeat at Tulane, a game where the Pirates led in the fourth quarter but the Green Wave scored the deciding touchdown with 35 seconds remaining. The Pirates’ four other conference games were all seamless double-digit victories, handling middle-of-the-pack teams like Army and Temple by a combined score of 73-20.
The Pirates are 11-4 since promoting Blake Harrell from defensive coordinator to head coach. Yet, his defensive coordinator background is still evident, as this team’s strength lies on that side of the ball. East Carolina is 15th in the FBS in scoring defense (17.3 points allowed per game), 18th in run defense (106 yards allowed per game), and third in tackles for loss (8.3 per game). Opponents are 39-of-127 (.309) on third down and 8-of-24 (.333) on fourth down — both top-11 FBS ranks — as the Pirates seem to always be in the right place at the right time on short-yardage situations.
Samuel Dankah and Dameon Wilson are the vital run-stoppers from the linebacking corps, each tallying seven tackles for loss on the year. Zion Wilson and J.D. Lampley are in charge of the first level stops in this elite run defense, and they look to prevent breakaway scampers before they happen. The pass coverage is the shakier part of ECU, but the Pirates still trot out tremendous talent in free safety Ja’Marley Riddle — whose 49 tackles and two interceptions lead the team. BYU is the only team to break 27 points on the Pirates, and ECU has stifled four different challengers to 14 or fewer points this season.
The Pirates’ offense oscillated between its caliber of play early on, but they finally found their rhythm the past three outings. Sure, the competition against Tulsa, Temple, and Army represented the team’s easiest three-game stretch; still, the offense dropped over 40 points in three convincing wins.
Katin Houser is 15th in the FBS with 2,469 passing yards, and he’s starting to find a rhythm. The Pirates were burdened by turnovers last year, but Houser fixed those issues — coughing up one interception in his last four starts. His 66.5 percent accuracy is impressive for a quarterback that takes as many deep shots as him, and he’s equipped with the necessary personnel to go vertical early and often.
Anthony Smith leads the team with 683 receiving yards on a 15.5 average, often flying past coverage on deep streaks and posts. Another 6’3” Smith receiver — Yannick Smith — is another premier target in this offense, thriving more as a threat on short to intermediate routes. Brock Spalding rounds out the main wide receiver trio in Greenville, which bolsters the nation’s 14th-ranked offense in total yards per game.
The reason the offense is suddenly hitting its stride is the unearthing of the run game. ECU never finished with a 60-yard rusher during its 3-3 start, but during this 3-game win streak, that’s the norm for the purple and gold. London Montgomery has compiled three-consecutive outings with 80+ rushing yards and a touchdown on an average of six yards or greater. Marlon Gunn Jr. and TJ Engleman offer good complementary support, suddenly boosting this ground attack to 34th in the nation in yards per game.
Prediction
Memphis presents a significant step-up in competition for East Carolina, which has only faced one of the top six American Conference contenders to date. ECU fields a potent defense, but the Tigers’ 15th-ranked scoring offense will test the Pirates in ways they haven’t seen in over a month — regardless of whether Brendon Lewis plays, or the Tigers utilize one of the two freshman backups.
East Carolina’s offense is peaking at the right time, showing two-way excellence through Katin Houser’s explosive passing and through an improved run game consistently moving the sticks. Tulane took down Memphis mainly due to chunk plays in the passing game, and ECU is equipped to inflict similar damage. This will be a close game and feature a decent amount of points, but the Pirates emerge at Dowdy-Ficklen in a close one decided on a late scoring drive.
Prediction: East Carolina 31, Memphis 28
