At time of writing, the Yankees can still feasibly win the AL East. If that happens, this column becomes meaningless and the path to successfully defending the AL pennant gets a little easier. However, the math is what the math is, and FanGraphs gives New York just a 13 percent chance of capturing the division with six games left. Therefore, we need to prepare for the more likely possibility that the club will have to win a best-of-three Wild Card Series.
They will almost certainly host all three
potential games, so the big question is who they welcome to the Bronx. The annual AL Central Rock Fight might end up in MLB’s history books, as the Cleveland Guardians have gone from 15.5 games back to just one behind the once seemingly invulnerable Detroit Tigers. It’s been a bit of a reversal from last year, where the Cardiac Cats had a chaotic rush to the postseason in the final eight weeks of the year, and 12 months later they find themselves on the brink of a crushing collapse. Both teams will likely be in the opening round of the playoffs, and the question is one of seeding and hosting.
Despite my general desire to see something I’ve never seen before, I think as a fan, I want the Guardians to fail in their division push. The Wild Card Series is kinda antithetical to the marathon style of the baseball season — three games to determine your season. So much hinges on that first game, and the Tigers will do everything in their power to get Tarik Skubal on the mound Tuesday September 30th. He’s tabbed to start tonight, in a huge series against Cleveland, and depending on how that set goes, it may be his final outing of the regular season. Should the Tigers sweep and clinch their division, they likely skip over Skubal’s next turn in the rotation which would line up with the season finale next Sunday.
Should the Guardians still be alive in the division race, things get trickier. Detroit needs to balance the value of having the game’s best starter in a potentially critical Game 162 against the risk of not having him available for the Wild Card round. It’s much easier to just brush the Guardians aside and get set for the first round, which also would mean the Tigers host their best-of-three to open October.
For the Yankees, there’s just nothing Cleveland can bring to bear that matches the threat of Skubal. At this point Tanner Bibee is naturally lined up for a Wild Card Game One, subject to the same kind of shuffling discussed above. He’s a perfectly fine pitcher and in fact has 3.57 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees, but he and Cade Smith, the two top arms on Cleveland’s staff, combine for about two-thirds of Tarik’s fWAR on the season.
The Yankees boast the best offense in baseball, Detroit the 11th, and Cleveland the 28th by wRC+. They can almost surely out-hit anyone they’d face in the opening round of the playoffs, especially at the Stadium. The one most volatile element is the Cy Young winner though, and avoiding him as long as possible is paramount. Once again, I’ve gotta back the cats for the AL Central title.
