As we move closer and closer to the 2025-2026 season, it starts to be time to reset our expectations and our methods. In the radio business, they say that your audience turns over every 15 minutes. I’m not sure how often it turns over in the blog business, but there is bound to be some turnover. In particular, SBNation has rolled out a new design and a new system behind the scenes for us. There will be people attracted to the new design and there will be people that are turned off by the new design.
I’m sure the powers that be have done the behind the scenes research on this and have determined that it is a net positive. I’m not here to debate that wisdom. Instead, I am here to reintroduce the concept of the value of things. How did it get its name? What can readers expect week to week? Finally, what can you get from this specific article?
Why the Value of things?
I made my bones initially as a baseball analyst. I have written four books on baseball history and baseball statistics. The general idea is that all players have value. This is going to be true in every team sport. Even average players and backups have value. The question for every NFL franchise is how much value to place on every player. VOT got its start at the tail end of the Bill O’Brien era. Essentially, it was as a response to several players that had value, but were being drastically overpaid and overvalued.
This happens for a variety of reasons. As a former coach, I can attest to the fact that most of this is emotional. We get emotionally attached to players. No, that doesn’t mean we have a relationship with them, but it means that they may have come through in a pressure situation and so they have built up a level of trust. They also may just be a good kid that works hard. For one reason or another we lose objectivity and give them a larger role (or salary in the case of the NFL) than what they should get given their level of production.
So, the VOT will always have a more analytical bent to it. This happens for a couple of reasons. The most important reason is that this is how I am wired. I like statistics. I think data can provide most of the answers we are looking for. As a former coach, I will never discount the impact of so-called intangibles, but the mistake we often make is putting too much emphasis on that. If we can measure most things then we should start by focusing on that which we can measure. When it gets close in the end, then we can throw in the intangibles to break those ties.
So, I tend to utilize things like Pro Football Focus and pro football reference as sources of data. They are just one data point. There are other data points as well. The general idea is that the more data we can access the better our analysis will be. In most instances, those data sources will end up saying something similar. When they all agree then we probably have our answer.
What can I expect?
Those of you that have perused the new site have already seen the “By the Numbers” pieces I wrote after each preseason game. That will be a regular feature week to week. They usually come on Mondays unless the Texans are playing on Monday night or Thursday night. The idea is to look at the key numbers each and every week to see if we notice any trends with this year’s team. We can both determine which numbers correlate best with winning and losing and find consistent strengths and weaknesses for the squad.
Later in the week (Thursday or Friday) I will look at the opponents for that Sunday. I will look at who their best players (according to PFF) and how that might impact their strategy. So, we will look at how each team will try to attack each other on offense and defense. In essence, it provides a prediction of how the Texans are likely to win or lose on Sunday.
Additionally, I usually do a feature with the writer of the opposing team and ask them five questions. This is not officially a VOT, but it will be a consistent feature. Neither of these will be in place during the preseason. They will begin week one when the Texans take on the Los Angeles Rams. Since it will be week one, we will look at the 2024 data for PFF.
Keys for the weekend
The last preseason game is both romantic and anti-climatic all at the same time. On the romantic side, you have 30 or so guys all competing to get those last few spots on the 53 man roster. Some will make it. Some will be added to the practice squad. Some will be cut and unemployed. So, in one respect you will see the most passionate football in your life during these last preseason games around the NFL. Make no mistake, each one of these guys is auditioning for 31 other teams at the same time as they are trying to make their own team.
On the other hand, it isn’t a great brand of football. Teams aren’t running complex plays on either side of the ball, so it is basic vanilla offense and defense being played by the 60th and 70th best players on the roster. By sheer definition that isn’t going to be good football. It will be passionate football. It will be drama filled football for those connected to the players playing. It will not be good football.
Tuesday will be final cut down day, but it will be just the beginning of the process. Each team has to get to 53, but that 53 will in all likelihood not be the final 53 on opening day. When teams cut certain guys, other teams will add them in the waiver process. That will necessitate cuts from the initial 53. So, it will probably be the weekend or beyond before we have a real idea of what the final roster will look like. I will not be providing that coverage here, but we have numerous dedicated staff that will bring you that information up to the minute.
