Ohio State 2025-2026 Season
Overall Record: 17-11
Big 10 Record: 9-8
Previous 3 Games
2/25: L – 57 – 74 vs Iowa @ Away
2/22: L – 60 – 66 vs Michigan State @ Away
2/17: W – 86 – 69 vs Wisconsin @ Home
Ohio State Personnel
Starters
Bench
Key Analytics
(Per KenPom.com – National Rank / Big 10 Rank in ())
KenPom Ranking – 38
Offense
Adjusted Efficiency: 122.3 (31) – Big 10 Only: 114.9 (8)
Adjusted Tempo: 66.2 (234) – Big 10 Only: 65.7 (6)
Average Possession Length: 17.7 (197) – Big 10 Only: 18.3 (7)
Effective Field Goal%: 55.4 (36) – Big 10 Only: 51.7 (6)
Offensive Rebound%: 31.3 (159) – Big 10 Only: 34
(15)
Three Point%: 34.7 (145) – Big 10 Only: 31.8 (4)
Two Point %: 57.6 (30) – Big 10 Only: 54.5 (10)
Defense
Adjusted Efficiency: 103 (61) – Big 10 Only: 114.3 (12)
Adjusted Tempo: 66.2 (234) – Big 10 Only: 65.7 (6)
Average Possession Length: 17.7 (197) – Big 10 Only: 18.2 (9)
Effective Field Goal%: 49.8 (93) – Big 10 Only: 51.7 (6)
Offensive Rebound%: 31.3 (217) – Big 10 Only: 34 (15)
Three Point%: 30.6 (33) – Big 10 Only: 31.8 (4)
Two Point %: 52.4 (212) – Big 10 Only: 54.5 (10)
Key Stat for Purdue
(Per KenPom.com – Big 10 Rank in ())
*Note: I’m only using Big 10 stats for this section because I think it better represents how both teams are currently playing.
Offense
Efficiency
Purdue Offense: 121.8 (3)
Ohio State Defense: 114.3 (12)
Thoughts:
Once again, Purdue’s defense can’t stop anyone, which puts immense pressure on the offense to perform. What the Boilermakers have yet to figure out is that every point matters. Purdue misses layups, bricks free throws, commits live-ball turnovers, and they don’t get back on defense when they commit turnovers (see Smith, Braden).
The offense, on paper, is still good, maybe even very good, but this collection of players has to be elite because they can’t guard anyone. This may be the worst, successful Purdue team, in terms of defense, that I’ve had the misfortune of watching. That means the offense has to squeeze every point out of the game they can and hope they build a big enough lead to hold on down the stretch, when the other team seemingly scores at will.
The offense doesn’t have to be perfect against Ohio State. They’re not a good team, but maybe they should practice being perfect, because unless they suddenly figure out how to guard, they need to be against any top-level team.
Defense
Effective Field Goal%
Purdue Defense: 54.7 (15)
Ohio State Offense: 54.2 (7)
Thoughts:
Ohio State isn’t a great shooting team, but Purdue is a terrible defensive team.
Bruce Thornton and Devin Royal can win games by themselves on offense, as they did against Wisconsin when they combined for 52 points in the Buckeyes’ upset win over the Badgers. Purdue starts two defensive black holes and CJ Cox in the back court. That leaves at least one of Ohio State’s two scorers free to do as they please, with Braden gambling for steals that don’t materialize and Fletcher playing defense like a tourist attempting to navigate the subway system in a foreign country.
I assume Cox will guard Thornton until there is a screen, at which point Oscar Cluff or Daniel Jacobson will be the primary defender. From a neutral fan perspective, watching Cluff and Jacobson attempt to guard point guards must be amusing. From a biased Purdue perspective, it makes me want to throw things at the television and drink more than I should.
There’s no fix for this defense. They lack size, athletic ability, and conviction. You can get away with the first two if you have the third, but the Boilermakers don’t have it in them to consistently play with the energy required to make up for their physical limitations on a possession-by-possession basis.
Hopefully, Ohio State misses some open shots on the perimeter and can’t finish at the rim because they’ll have ample opportunity to hit open shots and finish at the rim against this defense.
I wish I had something more positive to report.
Brief Thoughts
Once again, Purdue looks to bounce back after getting punked at home by the top tier of the conference. The good news is that the Boilermakers have somewhat established themselves as “the best of the rest,” once you take Michigan, Illinois, and Michigan State out of the equation, and Ohio State isn’t very good.
The one that concerns me is the Buckeyes’ coming out and playing with crazy energy in a game that could potentially help get them on the bubble or at least keep Jake Diebler’s job on life support. A win against Purdue would help in both efforts.
If Purdue shows up and plays a focused game and matches Ohio State’s effort, they win and win easily. I assume that’s how this game plays out, but who knows at this point?
Predictions
KenPom
Purdue: 78
Ohio State: 74
Drew
Purdue: Don’t know
Ohio State: Prefer not to say
Looking Into My Crystal Ball
Purdue should win this game. They’re the better team. That doesn’t mean anything if Ohio State plays harder and tougher than the Boilermakers. Watching a Purdue team play below its ceiling because it gets outworked has been an unpleasant viewing experience.
I like Purdue in this one, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Buckeyes keep it close and snipe them down the stretch.
