As Syracuse travels to South Bend this weekend, the Orange enter as 35.5-point underdogs against ninth-ranked Notre Dame, according to FanDuel. The sportsbook also projects a total of 51.5 points for the matchup.
To me, a 35.5-point spread feels simply too large for a matchup between Syracuse and Notre Dame, especially when considering what the Orange defense has shown this season.
Even in difficult environments, Syracuse’s defense has proven capable of generating a few key stops, and that alone makes a line one where I lean taking the ‘Cuse and the points.
Against Miami, for example, the Orange kept the Hurricanes in check for much of the first half, limiting explosive plays and keeping themselves within striking distance for a significant stretch.
When a spread extends beyond five touchdowns, Syracuse doesn’t need to dominate to stay within the number. If they compete, tackle well, and force the occasional punt, losing by more than five scores becomes a much tougher outcome. In my view, Syracuse has enough defensive talent to make that happen, especially with most of the unit remaining healthy throughout the season.
There’s no denying this will be an extremely hostile road environment, and with two losses and no conference title to play for, Notre Dame has every reason to keep its foot firmly on the gas. Jeremiah Love has been playing exceptionally well lately, and CJ Carr looks as though he’s truly found his rhythm.
But even so, one or two early defensive stops, a forced field goal instead of a touchdown, or even a single turnover can dramatically reshape the math on a spread this large.
Ultimately, I think the number is simply too high. Regardless of the gap between these programs, 35 points is a lot, and Syracuse’s defensive ability alone gives them a strong chance to stay within the spread.
As for the total, the number feels about right. Notre Dame’s defense is extremely strong, and Syracuse’s offense has struggled to generate much consistency. It’s hard to imagine the Orange putting up more than 10 points in this matchup.
I’d lean toward the under, though I could see the over hitting if Syracuse manages to string together a drive early or picks up a late score once the game is out of reach.
But my official play in this one: Syracuse +35.5. Enjoy the Saturday afternoon sweat.
What do you think the play is in this game? Will Syracuse cover? Do you lean the over or the under in this game?
