If Aaron Donald comes out of retirement to rejoin the Los Angeles Rams, the team’s Super Bowl odds would increase by over 3 percent and their win projection would go up by 0.6, according to a projection by the NFL Network’s data science analyst. However, while it’s widely believed that Donald’s presence would be a boon for Myles Garrett, his odds of back-to-back 20-sack seasons and his sack projection would both decrease.
Even if Donald makes it harder for offensive lines to defend against a defensive
line with both Donald and Garrett, could his presence actually decrease the sack numbers for L.A.’s biggest offseason acquisition?
That’s what a projection by Cynthia Frelund’s data model presumes, in a video she posted on Tuesday.
Frelund’s model projects the following totals with and without Donald:
- Wins: 11.6 without, 12.2 with
- Super Bowl probability: 12% without, 15.2% with
- Garrett leads NFL in sacks: 25% without, 23% with
- Garrett getting 20+ sacks: 4% without, 2.5% with
- Garrett’s sack projections: 17.5 without, 15 with
Myles Garrett had 23 sacks last year. But in his career, he has never been teammates with another player who had double-digit sacks on the Browns, or even close to it.
Now he joins a Rams defense that already has Byron Young, an edge rusher who had 12.5 sacks in 2025. If Donald comes out of retirement, that gives L.A. another player with a long history of double-digit sacks. And then there’s Kobie Turner, a player who had nine sacks as a rookie and has averaged eight sacks per season. Even Braden Fiske had 8.5 sacks as a rookie.
Any one of these guys could be the most productive pass rusher who Garrett has ever played alongside.
Frelund notes that even if 4% likelihood of another 20-sack season seems low, keep in mind that there have only been 13 of those in history. From 1987-1988, Reggie White had 21 and 18 sacks back-to-back. He also had 18 sacks in 1986.
Before sacks became official. Deacon Jones had 21.5 and 22 sacks in 1967 and 1968, which were 14-game seasons.
I’m not going to assume that Frelund’s model is right, or that it is wrong. There is a sensible argument to be made in either direction.
Donald’s return would probably soak up more double-teams away from Garrett, that’s true. Maybe that would increase Garrett’s sack total.
But there’s also a case where another great pass rusher simply gets to the quarterback before Garrett, and if Donald was anything like his old self then he has a quicker path to the quarterback. A lot of sacks—more than fans care to admit—come against teams and quarterbacks and offensive lines that are easy to sack.
In Cleveland, it was relatively easy for Garrett to be the one taking advantage of bad teams.
In Los Angeles, it should be relatively more difficult.
Donald’s presence could make the Rams better. His presence should make Garrett better. The team should get more sacks as a whole. If Donald returns, that’s all L.A. cares about, not individual records.
