#23 BYU goes for its fourth straight win to open the season when Montana State comes to the Marriott Center Thursday night. The Bobcats were picked to win the Big Sky in both the coaches and media preseason polls, so this should be a step up from Omaha and Queens. The game tips off at 7pm MT on ESPN+.
BYU is 3-0 after beating Ohio State 94-83, Omaha 108-67 and Queens 98-82. The Cougs have scored 300 points in three games and have shot exactly 46% from three in each game.
BYU and Montana State by the
Numbers
BYU KenPom: 26
AP Rank: 23
Montana State KenPom: 128
Win: Long Beach State (H)
Loss: Colorado State (A)
KenPom Prediction: BYU 90, Montana State 72 — BYU 94% win probability
Point Spread: BYU -23.5
Point Total: 163.5
Montana State Overview
Montana State is 1-1 on the season. The Bobcats dropped their opener 84-74 at Colorado State (missing their best player, Jed Miller) and beat Long Beach State 83-70 in their home opener last Saturday.
Head Coach Matt Logie is in his fourth season in Bozeman, and last year was his best. Montana State went 18-14 (12-6 in the Big Sky), finished second in the league and ranked 127th in the NET. The Bobcats’ season ended with a 78-74 loss to Idaho in the second round of the Big Sky Tournament.
Montana State was picked to win the Big Sky due in large part to their continuity. They bring back 10 players from last year’s team and added a five-man class that includes three transfers.
Players to Watch
Jed Miller, Guard — Miller was a unanimous First Team All-Big Sky pick last season and a preseason all-conference selection this year. Last season, he led Montana State in points (14.9), rebounds (5.7), assists (2.9), steals (1.6) and minutes (34.5). He went 4-8 from three in the Long Beach State win on his way to 14 points. Miller is the best player and focal point for MSU.
Jeremiah Davis, Guard — Davis was just named Big Sky Player of the Week after putting up 17 points and 10 rebounds against Long Beach State. Listed at 6-foot-4 and 185 pounds, the fifth-year guard made the Big Sky All-Defensive team last season. He averaged 9.1 points and 1.4 steals and shot 34-85 (40%) from three. Davis is the kind of physical, disruptive guard who can make life harder on Rob Wright than Queens did.
Christian King, Forward — King was an Honorable Mention All-Big Sky pick in his first season at Montana State after transferring from Washington. The 6-foot-8 forward averaged 12.6 points last season on 36% shooting from three. He scored 12 points on 5-8 shooting (2-4 from three) against Long Beach State. King is a forward who can step out and shoot, which means BYU’s bigs will have to guard on the perimeter.
Prediction
BYU beat Queens 98-82 on Tuesday, but the team didn’t look fully dialed in and had defensive lulls. Montana State doesn’t run the same pace that Queens does, but like Queens, returns many top contributors from last season’s team.
I want to see BYU perform better on the glass. Rebounding is one of my questions for this team, and they were outrebounded against a small Queens team. Montana State isn’t much bigger, so I want to see BYU assert its will on the glass more against a team which they have a size and length advantage.
BYU should win comfortably, but Montana State is a quality mid-major team. They gave Colorado State a competitive game on the road without Jed Miller, their best player. I think BYU wins due to its overall talent and size advantage, but BYU will need to be strong on the glass and defend better if they want to cover the spread.
Prediction: BYU 88, Montana State 70
