When the Lakers allowed Dorian Finney-Smith to walk in free agency earlier this offseason, rumblings emerged that they did so because they were prioritizing long-term cap space. That stance appears to have shifted recently, as both longtime NBA reporter Marc Stein and Dan Woike of The Athletic
have reported that the Lakers are now more open to taking on contracts that extend beyond the 2025-26 season.The Lakers’ original rationale was easy to understand, especially before Luka Dončić signed his three-year
max extension in August. If LeBron James retires after this season or leaves in free agency, the Lakers could have max or near-max cap space. They could keep Austin Reaves’ $20.9 million free-agent cap hold on their books, spend a majority of their cap room on another star free agent and then re-sign Reaves once they’re over the cap.
There’s just one problem with that plan: The 2026 free-agent class is looking weaker by the day.
Dončić isn’t the only big-name player who’s signed an extension in recent months. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, De’Aaron Fox, Mikal Bridges, Jaren Jackson Jr., and P.J. Washington have as well. Many of the top potential restricted free agents — Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Jabari Smith Jr. — have also re-upped with their respective squads rather than testing free agency.
More players figure to follow suit over the next month, too. The deadline for 2022 first-round picks to sign extensions is Oct. 20, so teams still have more a month to hammer out extensions with the likes of Dyson Daniels, Keegan Murray, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Bennedict Mathurin, Shaedon Sharpe and Tari Eason. Some of them figure to become restricted free agents next offseason, but there’s no guarantee that the Lakers would be able to pry them away.
Granted, the Lakers might not have been eyeing next offseason to begin with. ESPN’s Dave McMenamin initially reported that they were trying to save cap space for 2027, which is the summer that both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokić could become free agents. The Lakers might have felt more bullish about their chances of landing one of them earlier in the offseason when the league was awash in Giannis trade speculation and before the Denver Nuggets overhauled Jokić’s supporting cast.
However, it’s appearing increasingly likely that both will stand pat with their current clubs, at least for the time being.
Jokić and Giannis aren’t the only two stars who could become available in 2027. Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard are among the stars whose contracts are set to expire that offseason, although none of them are aligned with Dončić from an age perspective. Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns and Donovan Mitchell are among the stars who could join them in free agency by declining their respective player options. But is it worth betting on those players actually becoming free agents when an increasing number of stars are choosing to bypass free agency entirely by signing extensions?
If the Lakers set their sights slightly lower, Michael Porter Jr., Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins and Cam Johnson are all set to become free agents in 2027 as well. Perhaps they won’t even need max cap space to round out their supporting cast around Dončić as they embark upon their post-LeBron era. But in the meantime, they can’t pin all of their hopes on moonshots.
Dončić alone likely won’t be enough to lead them to a championship. The Lakers need to spend the next year figuring out the archetypes they need to pair alongside him. The Dallas Mavericks already did some of that for them — a defensive-minded, rim-running center and three-and-D wings should be among their top priorities — but knowing whom to target and actually landing them are two separate battles.
Dončić signed a three-year extension with a third-year player option because it was the best route for him financially. He’ll be able to decline his player option during the 2028 offseason and sign a contract beginning at 35% of the 2028-29 salary cap. In the meantime, the Lakers have him under a guaranteed contract for the next three seasons.
If they spend that time building a championship-caliber roster around him, he shouldn’t have to think twice about re-signing with them in 2028. But if they drag out their roster-building in pursuit of a pie-in-the-sky dream like Jokić or Giannis — at least without concrete reason to believe that they’re legitimately in play — they’d run the risk of wasting their next few years with Dončić. At that point, he might have second thoughts about their ability to maximize the rest of his prime.
The Lakers have effectively been in win-now mode ever since they signed James in 2018. They flipped most of their homegrown core for Davis one year later and won a championship in 2020, but they’ve been spinning their wheels ever since. Acquiring Dončić was a godsend as James nears the end of his career, but the one downside is that the Lakers won’t get a reprieve from feeling urgency to constantly improve their roster.
They’ll happily make that trade-off, even if it means having to abandon some of their long-term roster-building dreams. Convincing Dončić to spend the rest of his career in L.A. should be their top priority moving forward, whatever it takes.
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