After watching UCLA drive and kick their way past MSU on Friday, it became clear that 1) UCLA is much improved from when they lost to the Spartans in January and 2) Michigan State needs to somehow get its defensive mojo back before the NCAA tournament.
The defensive difficulties weren’t just evident against the Bruins. They’ve been creeping up on the Spartans since late January. The charts that follow attempt to convey the trends of the Spartans’ struggles on the defensive end.
A few notes about what
follows:
- The data below accounts for each Big Ten game the Spartans played as well as the really quality opponents they faced out of conference (Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Duke).
- The first three charts show points per game, field goal percentage, and three point field goal percentage for MSU and the Spartans’ opponents.
- Each of the first three charts has a trend line for MSU and the Spartans’ opponents which shows the direction of a statistic from the Arkansas game to Friday night’s game against UCLA.
- The fourth chart shows the difference between MSU’s opponents’ three point field goal percentage and their overall field goal percentage. More on that below.
First, the scoring trend:
The trendlines show the scoring gap between the Spartans and their opponents getting much closer together as the season progressed. The Spartans have gone from outscoring teams by roughly 71-56 to squeaking by 82-81. So, as far as improved offense – at least when judged by just points per game – Michigan State’s opponents are improving twice as much as the Spartans.
Next, field goal percentage:
As far as shooting, Michigan State has held pretty steady in the mid to high 40% area all season but they’ve allowed opponents to go from around 35% to joining the Spartans in the high 40’s.
It’s much worse with the three point shooting:
Here, the Spartans have held steady in the mid-30’s but allowed opponents to go from the low 20’s and actually surpass MSU into the mid-40% area on their three point shots. This might be the most alarming chart. In the beginning of the season, Michigan State was holding teams well below their season three point shooting averages but lately Rutgers, Michigan, and UCLA have shot well above their expected rates.
Finally, the three point defense gap chart:
Of course teams are generally going to shoot a lower percentage on three point attempts than three and twos combined. Here, we went with a baseline value of 12% lower on threes vs. total shooting, which is represented by the straight red line in the chart.
In some of their better defensive games the Spartans held North Carolina, Washington, and Ohio State to -20% to -30% gap between total shooting and three point shooting.
But look at how the green bars are mostly above the red line in the second half of the season. The only exception is the Ohio State game. Minnesota and Rutgers (in the second game) actually shot better from deep than overall against the Spartans.
This indicates that, while perimeter defense started out as real strength for the Spartans, it’s become a major liability down the stretch. Michigan State is no longer running teams off the line and conference opponents have found the key to getting open looks against the Spartans’ rotations.
All of this just shows in some charts what we’ve all seen happening with this team. But why is it happening and how are teams now getting such good looks against MSU?
The following two clips might give a hint as to how Dent hurt the Spartans on Friday.
In the first half, Dent uses a screen to get by Coen Carr and Carson Cooper moves to stop Dent’s dribble penetration. Carr recovers to Tyler Bilodeau after getting screened and Jaxon Kohler appears to be keeping an eye on #5 Brandon Williams in the corner. Jeremy Fears is also in a position to help on Dent but he just kind of swipes at the ball and moves back to an area of the three point line where there isn’t anyone to guard. This leaves #8 Eric Freeny wide open but Dent goes to #0 Trent Perry, who is also left wide open after Jordan Scott moves over to help on Dent.
After Fears’ help was ineffective, Dent has the one-on-one against Cooper. Perhaps this isn’t ideal for MSU, but Cooper does appear to have gotten in the way of Dent’s movement towards the basket and, at 6-11, could have been a disruption of Dent opted for a short jumper. When Scott comes over to help anyway, Dent immediately makes the read and Perry rings up three for UCLA.
In the second half, Scott and Kur Teng don’t switch on the screen and Scott stays with Dent. It looks like Dent has a step on Scott but Cooper is there again as Dent starts to get closer to the basket. Carr comes in the paint to help on Cooper’s man if needed.
But Trey Fort also moves to help on Dent despite Cooper and Carr being in positions to help Scott recover. When Fort tries to help, it leaves Perry wide open in the corner and it’s another three for UCLA.
After an early exit from the Big Ten tournament against a determined UCLA team, there are likely a lot of things the Spartans need to do better. Clearly understanding and communicating help responsibilities on defense to better defend the three point line might be a good place to start.
