The Orioles did it. They spent big money on a free agent. After missing out on slugger Kyle Schwarber just a day ago, the Orioles pivoted to signing Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million contract on Wednesday
afternoon. The news was first reported by ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
Entering this offseason, I did not believe the Orioles would actually do it. I figured Mike Elias’s talk about wanting to add a bat was just a smoke screen, that he might lurk around but not be serious. Yet it seems that the fact that the Orioles were the team that escalated the Schwarber bidding to 5/150, which the Phillies then matched, was actually a harbinger of things to come. They stepped up and spent the money to sign Alonso, the other big power bat on the free agent market this winter.
The immediate rationale for the deal is obvious. The Orioles rather famously lacked a major power threat in their lineup in the 2025 season, with three players tying for the team lead at a frankly pathetic 17 home runs. This was, to some extent, impacted by them trading away players in July, but even so, it was sad. Now, they’ve got Alonso, whose seven-year MLB career has seen him hit home runs at a pace of 42 per 162 games.
$31 million per year is a lot of dollars and five years is a lot of years to make that commitment to a guy who is limited to first base or designated hitter. It is, in fact, the highest AAV ever given out to a free agent first baseman. Alonso will be 31 next season and it could be that years 4 and 5 of the contract will not nearly be as exciting. Hopefully that will not be a problem until 2029 at the earliest. For now, consider that these players batted the most games at cleanup for the 2025 Orioles: Ryan O’Hearn (48 games), Ryan Mountcastle (39), Adley Rutschman (21), Tyler O’Neill (17). That wasn’t it.
Now, presumably, it will be Alonso almost every day. Something had to change beyond just hoping that the returning hitters would improve. I didn’t think Elias would be “$31 million per year” committed to that reality. Here we are. Mash us some taters, Polar Bear. Alonso hit 38 homers in 2025 and Statcast projects that at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, the righty slugger would have smashed seven more homers than he did. I am only partially joking when I wonder if Walltimore 3.0 will be in the cards.
It’s an eye-opening deal: Alonso was projected for four years and $110 million by MLB Trade Rumors heading into the offseason, so he’s bested that guess by a sizable amount in AAV and tacked on an extra year besides. One might reasonably speculate that Elias, after just missing out on Schwarber, stepped up with a fifth year in bidding that was otherwise at four years.
The seal has finally been broken. Elias will sign a big contract. Yet even this deal leaves lingering questions: Will he sign a big contract for a starting pitcher? Plowing $31 million per year into Alonso means that, if they’re going to get a top free agent starter, they’ll be going quite a way beyond the 2025 payroll. Second, now that big money is committed for first base, what will be the impact on Mountcastle and Coby Mayo’s places on the roster? It’s not hard to see Mayo as being even more obvious trade bait now than he has ever been. These are questions for another day. Unless Elias surprises us again and answers them today.
