Every great show builds to a final act.
For the ’Cats, that moment arrives Sunday. On their lake, in their time zone, in front of their crowd.
The Lake Show has been waiting for this stage all season.
The circumstances couldn’t be better. After defeating Johns Hopkins en route to the championship, NU is now on a 13-game win streak — its longest since winning it all in 2023 — and is facing the UNC team that cost them the title last year. Also, there hasn’t been a program to win the championship on its home
turf since Maryland in 1986. How is this not the perfect time for Kelly Amonte Hiller’s squad to make history?
Getting to the curtain call will require the usual grit, but the ball is in Northwestern’s pocket. Here are three keys to a victorious Sunday.
1. Suffocate
Defense has, and always will, win championships. If NU wants to win on Sunday, it has to lock down all facets — from Jenika Cuocco at the net, to the other 11 in rotation.
But this doesn’t only come from causing turnovers down the stretch, which is something the ’Cats have done 182 times this season already.
Instead, overpowering the offense before they have a chance to clear is a great advantage the ’Cats need to capitalize on more. Johns Hopkins had a 92% clearing rate before entering the semifinal matchup. On Friday, Northwestern forced three failed attempts, dragging that number down to 88.5%. The ‘Cats scored on all three Blue Jay turnovers.
It may not seem like a lot, but three goals can be more than a deciding factor in any game — especially against a team like UNC, which the ’Cats defeated in an overtime win by just one.
Additionally, Northwestern needs to stay locked in throughout the second half. It’s been a common trend among tough opponents that the ’Cats fail to hang on as the game winds down. This season, opponent scoring production has increased by 3% in the second half. Perhaps it’s the other team adjusting, or maybe it’s because the Lake Show gets comfortable — either way, it needs to cease immediately.
While Friday’s game still swayed in NU’s favor, the Blue Jays outscored the Wildcats 8-6 in the second half, including a four-goal run to open the final 30 minutes. Against a Chloe Humphrey and Addison Patillo-led offense, this cannot happen.
In the first Northwestern-UNC meeting of the year in March, NU proved it could win by taking advantage of the second half. After trailing 10-8 in the first, the Wildcats outscored the Tar Heels 9-6 to end the game — that’s the type of mentality Northwestern needs to hang onto to take home a trophy.
2. Keep the chemistry alive
There is something infectious about the way Northwestern threads the ball across the field. This deep into the season, it looks rather instinctive how the Wildcats can find the right player at the right moment.
The Wildcats have faced many zone defenses this year and have quickly learned the tickets to victory are passing the ball and communicating. This season, Northwestern has accumulated 192 assists compared to only 92 for its opponents. Against Johns Hopkins alone, 11 of 16 goals came off assists. In the tournament, 65% of the Wildcat goals have come with an assist. The offense runs through everyone, not just Maddie Taylor.
While Taylor is certainly a force, it’s the depth of the players in purple and white that make Northwestern so good. There is no doubt the Tar Heels will guard the Tewaaraton finalist just as heavily as games past, so finding open players becomes even more imperative.
The ability to make UNC pay for the attention it gives Taylor and to spread its defense thin will make or break the game for the ‘Cats.
3. Luck of the draw
Northwestern should head back to the basics and stick to what it knows best: winning the draw.
In the quarterfinals and semifinals, when NU won the draw, it was the first team to score 55.6% of the time (excluding quarter-end draws). When the opposing team won, they converted 60% of the time. Five percentage points may not sound like much, but again, every goal counts. In a National Championship game against a team this evenly matched, the former is preferable.
The good news is that Northwestern seems to be getting better at limiting the damage; in the Colorado game, the Buffaloes cashed in 83% of the time after winning the draw. For the Blue Jays, though, that number dropped to 44%, even though their offensive production is ranked seventh in the country. It seems the defense is getting better; it just needs to stay intact.
However, in a championship game, there is more than defense and offense once the ball is in play — the draw will set the tempo. Both teams have an even draw percentage this season, the Tar Heels at 59% and the ’Cats at 60%. In the teams’ last matchup, NU scored 58.82% of the time while UNC scored 57.1% of the time after winning. This game is a tipping scale.
When everything is this close, the team that wins the draw wins the margin, and the margin is everything.
First draw for the National Championship is Sunday, May 24, at 12 EST. Hopefully, the Lake Show will be ready.
