The Spurs will return to the playoffs after a six-year drought as the second seed, following a surprising and fantastic season. They have looked like a contender, exceeding expectations and eliciting praise from the entire league. Now it’s time to prove that the success from the regular season is sustainable in the playoffs.
The Trail Blazers will be there in the first round to try to play the spoiler after winning their play-in game against the Suns. Portland has proved to be a deep, scrappy team
that found a centerpiece in their breakout star, Deni Avdija. They are a massive underdog heading into Game 1, but they are not to be taken lightly despite their flaws.
Let’s take a closer look at what should be a fun series between two teams with vastly different goals and expectations.
San Antonio Spurs
Record: 62-20
Offensive rating: 118.7 (3rd)
Defensive rating: 110.4 (3rd)
Net rating: 8.4 (tied 2nd)
Portland Trail Blazers
Record: 42-40
Offensive rating: 113.1 (21st)
Defensive rating: 113.5 (12th)
Net rating: -0.4 (19th)
The Spurs’ offense will be tested
Portland has built its identity around defense. Despite dealing with multiple absences at different times in the season, they finished in the top half of the league in efficiency on that end and are arguably better than their numbers suggest. Their biggest asset is size. Even their smaller guards, Scoot Henderson and Jrue Holiday, have impressive wingspans and strength. Their collection of defensive-minded wings is vast. and they are anchored by Donovan Clingan inside, with Robert Williams backing him up. They thrive when they can cause turnovers, which they often achieve by playing a long rotation and pressuring opponents into mistakes.
Unfortunately for the Trail Blazers, they are facing a Spurs team that seems designed to counter their strengths. The Silver and Black have one of the lowest turnover percentages in the league and have several ball handlers they can turn to to relieve the pressure of any specific matchup. They play fast, trying to attack before the defense is established, and normally counter size with speed even in the halfcourt. Their offense is not the most sophisticated, but it doesn’t have to be. Drive-and-kicks and any play involving Wembanyama are normally enough to get them a good look. And they are even feisty on the offensive glass, punishing defenses that overcommit to contesting everything or try to be too aggressive.
There will be key matchups to monitor. In all three regular-season games, the Blazers used Toumani Camara on De’Aaron Fox, even when they had Henderson and Holiday available. Fox got to the paint at will, so they might adjust and try to match his speed with a smaller but quicker defender. Even if they do contain Fox, who torched them this year, the Spurs can turn to Castle to run the show or try to get Deni Avdija, a solid but not outstanding defender, on switches to trigger rotations. The midrange shot and floaters could be deadly against an opponent that often plays drop defense to wall off the rim but doesn’t have switchable bigs.
Speaking of bigs, Victor Wembanyama missed all three games against the Blazers in the regular season, but should thrive in this matchup. Clingan, in particular, should not be able to deal with his agility, and he can draw him out with his range, leaving the back line exposed and the Blazers susceptible to offensive rebounding. Portland has hidden Clingan on non-shooters against stretch bigs, but it might be hard to find somewhere to do so against the Spurs. Castle seems like the better option on paper, but he’s been shooting better and can use his athleticism to attack him. We might see a lot of zone from Tiago Splitter’s team.
Ultimately, it will come down to execution. The Blazers have a lot of long-armed defenders to throw the Spurs’ ball handlers’ way and to punish any distraction or laziness on offense. They have no answer to Wembanyama, but could force others to beat him, so the shooters should be ready to fire away if left open, and San Antonio’s superstar might need to be patient if the entire game plan is geared towards stopping him. The Silver and Black should be able to score, but will need to be under control on every possession against an opponent that only has a chance to make the series competitive if they can rattle them.
Defensively, discipline will be key
While the Blazers can be tricky to deal with on defense, their offense is simply not good enough. Their outside shooting is among the worst in the league, and since they don’t have a true stretch five despite Clingan’s improving range, the paint can be crowded at times. They have some talented shot makers, a star in Avdija, and some momentum after closing the season with several role players shooting better, but it’s incredibly hard to see them scoring consistently against an elite defense like San Antonio’s, provided the Spurs are locked in.
It will be important for the Silver and Black to not fall back into bad habits. The Blazers know their limitations in the half-court and will look to run, even after makes. If the Spurs can limit easy points on the break and force Portland to play against a set defense, they should cruise to the second round. It’s easier said than done, since the Blazers have multiple ball handlers who can push the ball up the floor, including Avdija, who is lethal in space, but San Antonio has been great at preventing fastbreak points this year.
Another area where focus will be required on every possession is the defensive glass. The Spurs led the league in defensive rebounding percentage, but could struggle against an opponent that puts a big emphasis on getting extra possessions. Luke Kornet is not a great defensive rebounder, and Victor Wembanyama can be moved out of the way, so it will take a team effort to limit second-chance opportunities, a key factor for Portland, which finished the season with the fourth-highest offensive rebound percentage in the league and led all teams in second-chance points. Clingan is a specialist and will recover some misses, but San Antonio has to fight for every board.
The engine of the Blazers’ half-court offense is Deni Avdija. He led the league in drives per game and was efficient in those forays to the paint in part because opponents couldn’t stop fouling him, something that Castle, likely his main defender, will have to avoid. Avdija’s combination of size and vision makes him a handful, but he hasn’t faced Wembanyama yet this season, and it will be interesting to see how much challenging the best rim protector in the league affects him. It might push him to do what he seems to prefer on drives: passing. The problem for Portland is that Wemby will likely make lobs impossible, forcing Avdija to spray to the perimeter to questionable shooters.
Beyond the transition buckets, second chance opportunities, and Avdija-generated points, Portland has viable but not consistent weapons. Veterans Jrue Holiday and Jerami Grant can still fill it up occasionally, but neither can act as a first option. Scoot Henderson is progressing as a shooter, defender, and shot creator, but at this point, he’s more of a role player than the star many thought he would immediately be. Shaedon Sharpe might drop 30 or take bad shot after bad shot. The Camara-Murray-Thybulle trio will hit some threes, but it doesn’t inspire fear from beyond the arc. The lack of firepower is real.
Prediction: Spurs in 4
The Trail Blazers are likely better than the numbers suggest, but this is a terrible matchup for them. San Antonio is good at preventing what Portland does well on offense, namely getting transition points and offensive rebounds. Avdija, who can shoot but is at his best when he touches the paint, will face a challenge because the Spurs will live with some threes from Clingan if it means Wembanyama gets to shut down the paint. They are deep, but so is San Antonio. Their defense is stout, but Wembanyama presents a riddle they might not be able to solve. They have no significant edge in any area.
A safer bet than a sweep would be to give Portland at least one game, based on the Spurs’ inexperience, Avdija’s brilliance, and the Trail Blazers’ ability to make teams uncomfortable with their defense. The games should likely be close, but in the end, if San Antonio is locked in, they should come out on top in every single one.
