When | 7:00 p.m. CT
Where | Enterprise Center; St. Louis, Mo.
TV | Fox Sports 1
Radio | Tiger Radio Network
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
Kenpom prediction | Illinois -7
ESPN win probability | 31.0% chance
The Starters
Mizzou
G: Anthony Robinson II (JR, 10.8 PPG)
G: Annor Boateng (SO, 5.4 PPG)
F: Jacob Crews (GR, 14.8 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 18.2 PPG)
C: Shawn Phillips, Jr. (SR, 8.2 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man:
Sebastian Mack (JR, 8.4 PG)Illinois
G: Kylan Boswell (SR, 16.1 PPG)
G: Keaton Wagler (FR, 15.1 PPG)
G: Andrej Stojakovic (JR, 15.5 PPG)
F:
David Mirkovic (FR, 13.6 PPG)
F: Tomislav Ivisic (JR, 10.0 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Ben Humrichous (GR, 6.4 PPG)
Note: these starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Illinois: far more than just that one Brad Underwood Twitter meme
Illinois approaches the end of its non-conference slate looking like a team that could make a deep postseason run for the second time in three seasons. The Illini have been ranked as high as eighth in the nation this year and were ranked 13th last week before a narrow 83-30 loss to Nebraska dropped them five spots. Brad Underwood’s squad showed potential last season but were a second round exit in the tournament. This year’s team might be closer to his 2023 squad that made a run to the Elite Eight before falling to the eventual national champions, UConn.
Mizzou’s rivals to the east return three starters from last year’s squad, including All-Big Ten Honorable Mention honoree Tomislav Ivisic and dynamic guard Kylan Boswell. Ben Humrichous also returns but has seen his role take a slight step back, underlining the amount of talent Underwood brought in during the offseason.
That starts with Honorable Mention All-Pac 12 wing Andrej Stojakovic, who transferred his top-level scoring ability to the Big 10 with ease and has quickly become of the team’s top offensive weapons. Illinois also added Tomislav’s twin brother Zvonimir, also known as “Big Z,” a stretch forward who put up 8.5 points and was second in the SEC in blocks last year as a starter at Arkansas.
Zvonimir leads the Illini’s bench unit alongside Humrichous, both of them strong shooters with size. Illinois has 10 players averaging at least 10 minutes a game, but two of those players are questionable to appear Monday night in St. Louis. Brandon Lee has been missing since November (has dealt with injury issues), and Mihailo Petrovic missed the team’s last game against the Huskers. Petrovic came in sporting high expectations as one of the squad’s many players with experience in international leagues and a possible complement to Boswell at the starting guard positions, but his playing time has diminished due to disappointing performances and injuries.
His role also decreased due to the emergence of true freshman Keaton Wagler, who has blown all expectations out of the water as a low four-star recruit. Wagler has started every game for the Illini, providing more than 15 points a night while averaging 4.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. He’s joined in the starting lineup by another freshman, David Mirkovic, who has immediately stepped in to provide 13.6 points and 8.8 rebounds a game.
Mirkovic is one of three Illinois players to gain high-level experience with SC Derby in the professional ABA league in the Balkans (alongside the Ivisic brothers), and part of the team’s large contingent of players from that region as Underwood has heavily dipped into the international waters for impact talent that can play immediately (and also led to a number of internet memes fueled, in part, by Underwood himself).
The strategy’s worked: the Illini are 8-3 on the season with notable wins over top-20 Texas Tech and top-25 Tennessee. Illinois has dropped games to top-20 teams in UConn and Alabama, both on neutral courts, meaning the team’s three losses (also Nebraska) have all been to ranked opponents. Underwood’s combination of returning starters, impact transfers, a few talented freshman and a heavy dose of international flavor has created a squad that could be one of his best in Champaign.
3 Keys to the Game
Contest and limit shots from three
Illinois averages 28.9 three-point attempts per game, a number that ranks 44th in the nation and is higher than that of any other team the Tigers have faced this year. Those attempts come out to about 46% of the Illini’s overall attempts from the field, and their high volume of perimeter shots could spell trouble for a Mizzou team that has shown a tendency to allow a few too many open looks from three.
The good news for the Tigers is that Brad Underwood’s squad connects on three-point attempts roughly 34 percent of the time, a percentage that ranks around the middle of Division I teams. Illinois has plenty of capable shooters, though — Stojakovic is the only starter shooting below 30 percent from beyond the arc, and the team’s key forwards have better shots than most players their height. The Illini lack a shooter of Caleb Grill or Jacob Crews’ caliber, but most of their rotation members can be trusted to knock down open looks.
That’s exactly what MU needs to prevent if it wants to pull off the upset. Mizzou has been solid defending from within the arc this year, holding opponents to a 45.1 two-point field goal percentage. That rate is more generous to the Tigers due to their lower level of competition — and Illinois is also efficient shooting from within the arc — but they should increase their odds of a win Monday by preventing open looks and directing Underwood’s squad into the paint.
Force turnovers and capitalize
Creating havoc on the defensive end has been a hallmark of Dennis Gates’ teams at Mizzou, and the Tigers will need to crank the havoc up to another level in St. Louis. Stealing possessions away, if combined with limiting the Illini’s scoring from beyond the arc, could bring their offensive efficiency down significantly. MU forces an average of 13.1 turnovers per game, and Illinois has often been on the losing end of the turnover margin this year, so some favorable conditions exist for this possibility.
Generating turnovers has also been an effective method for Mizzou to generate offense this season, as the team is averaging 18.1 points off turnovers per game. Getting buckets in transition off turnovers would help grease the wheels of the Tigers’ offense, which hasn’t quite been the same since Jayden Stone’s injury. When combined with the final key to the game, points off turnovers could give MU just enough of a lift on offense to get the job done.
Hit your shots, especially from beyond the arc
Mizzou shot a combined 27 percent from three at Notre Dame and in the Border War, struggles that helped sink the Tigers in both matchups. But that was before the team’s jumbo lineup, which clogged up spacing and slowed down the offense, went out the window in favor of placing sharpshooter Jacob Crews in the starting lineup. How much of a difference will the lineup adjustment make to the team’s scoring ability against a power conference opponent?
MU needs the answer to be “significant.” Illinois outrebounds its opponents by an average of 10 boards a game and is top-30 in the nation in defensive rebounding rate, and the Illini also rank just outside the top 25 teams in the country with 5.2 blocks per game. They make life difficult from inside the arc, and it’s rare to get a second-chance opportunity.
How do you overcome that? With an efficient shooting night that minimizes the need for second-chance points and enough three-pointers to either de-clog the lane or make going inside irrelevant to your team’s offensive output. Shooting from beyond the arc is one of the game’s great equalizers, and the Tigers need that equalizer to work in their favor Monday night.
Game Prediction
My prediction: Illinois 86 – Mizzou 78
Mizzou took a solid step in the right direction with wins over Alabama State and Bethune-Cookman following consecutive losses, making a much-needed shakeup to the starting lineup and putting together one of its best defensive performances of the year against their visitors from Daytona Beach. But the Tigers are still missing two starting-caliber players, and Illinois might be the best team MU faces in the non-conference schedule.
Both teams have shown a high scoring ability this season, and fans should anticipate an offensive-oriented matchup. I’m expecting Illinois to stop a Mizzou offense that’s still missing a few key puzzle pieces, at least enough for its own offense to pull away down the stretch. The Illini take Braggin’ Rights for a third straight year, but the Tigers keep it within 10.
