Homecoming for the Tar Heels offers an opportunity for UNC’s best win of the season. Louisville comes to Chapel Hill with an average metrics ranking of 15th nationally, but the Cardinals get only 3.5 points from the sports books. Louisville this season tends to veer between spurts of offensive domination and bouts of self-destruction, with the shooting-itself-in-the-foot mode causing an inexplicable loss to NC State. Since then, the Cardinals ride a four game winning streak, but those four opponents
were Florida State, Syracuse, Stanford and Georgia Tech. What are three things to watch as UNC tries to string together its own four game win streak to end the season?
Can UNC stop Louisville on 1st down?
Huh? Shouldn’t that be third down? No, and here’s why: Louisville leads the nation in yards per play at 7.76. Louisville’s explosiveness is the biggest reason for this number, as the Cardinals lead the nation in plays gaining 20 yards or more (64). Where does Louisville’s offense do most of its damage? First downs.
For the season, Louisville has gained 4,393 yards, and 2,299 of those — 52%! — were gained on first downs. Louisville averages 7.2 yards per rush and 10.3 yards per pass attempt on first downs. Most of that damage comes from three speedy individuals: RB Isaac Brown, WR Tre Richardson, and WR Lawayne McCoy. Brown has 22 explosive plays (19 rushing, 3 receiving). Richardson has 26 explosive plays (19 receiving, 7 rushing). McCoy has 14 explosive receptions. On first downs, these three have produced 1,226 yards, 33 explosive plays, and nine touchdowns.
UNC’s defensive strategy starts with limiting explosive plays, preferring to surrender 20 yards in four or five plays rather than one. It’s the primary reason UNC’s defense ranks so low in 3rd down conversions for the second straight year. Against a much less potent offense last Saturday, UNC allowed nine explosive plays, eight of them passing plays that netted 177 yards and two touchdowns. The defense will need to step up and do what it’s designed to do.
Can UNC’s offensive efficiency grind down Louisville’s defense and keep their offense off the field?
UNC ranks 115th nationally in plays gaining 20 or more yards. Petrino’s offense this season is predicated on efficiency rather than explosiveness, somewhat the opposite of Louisville’s. When UNC’s offense rolls, Billy Edwards Jr gets the ball out fast and accurately in the passing game while the run game moves chains. Long drives eat clock, convert in the red zone, and protect the defense. UNC’s offense has risen to a top 30 unit in the estimation of both FPE and FEI, whereas the defense hovers in the 50s in all three major metrics. The offense now leads the way for UNC football.
Interestingly enough, Edwards’ two best games statistically this season came against Miami and Notre Dame, with the Miami game ranking as Edwards’ best effort as a college QB. Louisville’s secondary surrenders a lot of completions on short and intermediate throws, where UNC’s passing game thrives. On the other hand, Louisville’s defense has been on a heater on third downs in its last three games, allowing only nine conversions on 47 attempts (19%). Edwards and the UNC offense need to control this game.
Who wants it more?
Yes, it’s a cliche, but what are these two teams playing for as the season enters the home stretch? While a mathematical possibility for it still exists, Louisville is effectively out of the ACC title game. At 6-3, Louisville’s a good team that didn’t need much motivation to boat race Stanford and Georgia Tech, but the Cardinals are 0-2 versus teams from the state of North Carolina this season, falling to Wake Forest at home and NC State on the road. What are they playing for in this game?
If UNC can find a way to win this game, the Tar Heels would have a 6-4 record with two struggling opponents — Virginia and NC State — ahead of them. After last season’s 4-8 embarrassment, the potential for an 8-4 turnaround should have UNC focused. This game should mean more to UNC, and in a close contest — a 3.5 point spread — that can matter a lot.
What are your thoughts on UNC’s game against Louisville on Saturday?
