UFC 324 takes place this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, the first UFC event in six weeks, and the first event of the new Paramount era. And to kick off this new era, the UFC is putting an interim lightweight title on the line with two of their most bankable stars, Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett.
Gaethje is the most exciting fighter who has ever set foot inside the octagon, while Pimblett is one of the sport’s biggest stars and could be the promotion’s hope for a future crossover superstar.
And while this matchup may not decide who the best lightweight on Earth is (Ilia Topuria and Arman Tsarukyan might both dispute the point), it’s a fascinating clash of styles and eras.
Let’s discuss.
Paths to victory for Justin Gaethje at UFC 324
The start for every Justin Gaethje fight is this: Gaethje is the most exciting fighter in the history of MMA. There are others in the conversation, and some might disagree, but if you polled 100 true MMA fans, they’re going to tell you it’s “The Highlight,” because he simply has never had a bad fight.
That excitement is attributable to his unique style, vacillating between technical power-striking and semi-controlled chaotic brawling. When Gaethje first entered the UFC, he was all blood-and-guts brawling, but after a few losses, he shifted to a more refined style that embraces his berserker nature in specific moments. It makes him a very dangerous fighter to face.
Gaethje’s game boils down to a few key components: huge power, a sharp jab, chopping low kicks, and astounding durability — not in a way where he can’t be hurt, but where even when he is hurt, he’s still a nightmare to deal with. Gaethje has this remarkable ability that, even when he’s getting the worst of things, he can persist through and drag you into the muck with him. And once you’re in that place, that’s his home. He was born in the brawl, and you? You’re just a visitor.
But in the later parts of his career, this dogged persistence has become the bastion of last resort for Gaethje. Ultimately, Gaethje will go there, but first, he wants to fight a one-for-one battle at range, where his leg kicks and power weight that sort of exchange in his favor. The darkness will always call out to Gaethje, but he’s proven much more willing to stick a jab and land power shots if that’s working for him. And against Pimblett, it very well may.
Pimblett is still very much a work in progress on the feet. He’s got some natural power, and he’s developing a decent kicking game, but his defense is suspect, and his chin sits high in the air, almost as if on a pedestal, waiting to be shot off. That’s obviously an attractive target for someone with Gaethje’s powers, but he shouldn’t zero in too much on it, because overthrowing to get to the KO shot is exactly the sort of thing that opens up takedowns for Pimblett, which is very bad news for Gaethje. Instead, Gaethje should focus on constant forward pressure, working the legs and body before shooting at the head. Pimblett backs up on straight lines and never tucks his chin, so get him moving backward before gunning for it, making it much more difficult for Pimblett to wrestle.
Paths to Victory for Paddy Pimblett at UFC 324
Paddy Pimblett entered the UFC in the unique position of being heavily hyped by casual fans, while hardcore fans were skeptical. Well, chalk one up for the casuals, because despite some critiques that can be made about his level of opposition, Pimblett has unequivocally excelled inside the octagon.
While Pimblett occasionally fancies himself a striker, the straw that stirs the drink for “The Baddy” is his ground game. Well, really, the straw that stirs the drink for him is that he’s enormous, but he can best leverage his size with his grappling game. On the feet, Pimblett’s size helps to equalize some of his striking deficiencies, whereas on the ground, it makes him a serious threat.
But how to get the fight to the ground? Pimblett is not a great wrestler, and Gaethje is a solid defensive wrestler, even if he’s a bit of a turtle once you get him on his back. Pimblett has had a lot of success getting to dominant positions from scrambles, but Gaethje rarely shoots takedowns, so it’s unlikely that Pimblett will get free grappling exchanges that way. Instead, he’s going to have to shoot takedowns, and if you’re trying to do that against Gaethje, the best way to do that is to watch the Khabib Nurmagomedov fight. Pimblett is not Khabib, but the tactics are sound — forward pressure, be willing to commit to the striking, kicks and jabs, and then shoot when Gaethje is moving backward.
And on the feet, Pimblett has started to add some very useful pieces in this regard. The first is his kicking game, which was on full display against Michael Chandler. Gaethje is a better kicker than Pimblett, but Gaethje may be less inclined to use his kicks for fear of takedowns, and you can’t cede combat ground anyway. Kicking with Gaethje will both score and set up opportunities for Pimblett in the fight. But the biggest thing for Pimblett — other than forward pressure, which is a must — is the uppercut. Not only is the uppercut a good weapon to force a higher posture from opponents, but it’s also uniquely suited against Gaethje, who constantly dips his head. Pressure, uppercuts, leg kicks, takedown; that’s the formula for Pimblett.
Question Marks
With any title fight, there are always a lot of questions about what the matchup might look like, but with this one, there are two non-fight-specific questions that may decide things.
The first is Gaethje’s age. While Gaethje is by far the best opponent Pimblett will have ever faced, he’s also 37 years old and unlikely to be at his peak. Pimblett, by contrast, is right in the thick of his prime. How much juice does Gaethje have left, and if it’s true he’s going to retire with a loss, does that help or hurt his chances on Saturday?
The other thing is Gaethje’s readiness. While Gaethje denied having a staph infection a few weeks ago, what fighter would admit that? And I’m not a medical doctor, but that doesn’t look like just an ingrown hair.
Did Gaethje have staph? If so, it’s certainly cleared up by now, but how did antibiotics affect his final preparations for this fight? I guess we’ll see.
Prediction
My brain says this is a favorable fight for Paddy Pimblett. He’s bigger (though not by much), younger, and a far superior grappler, with a clear path toward getting the fight he needs to win. Gaethje, meanwhile, has lost to the two best grapplers he’s ever fought, and most of his UFC success came against people who wanted to strike with him.
All that being said, I still believe. At his peak, Gaethje was/is a much better fighter than Pimblett, and he also has a clear path to victory. Pimblett isn’t Charles Oliveira or Khabib Nurmagomedov, so even if he scores takedowns, Gaethje can survive and get back to the feet, where eventually Pimblett’s defense costs him in a big way.
Justin Gaethje def. Paddy Pimblett via KO (punch) — Round 3, 1:24
