Well that was certainly a gut punch. The Nats just got swept at home by a Marlins team that had lost five straight entering the series. For whatever reason, the Fish just seem to have our number. That is especially true of Marlins pitchers who have contained this offense better than any other team.
In this series, the Nats only scored 7 runs in the three games. Today, they only managed 1 run on 3 hits. The one run they did score was due to Otto Lopez booting what could have been an inning ending double
play. That elite offense which has been so consistent all season long was nowhere to be found in this series.
Part of that is due to the Marlins pitching staff. The Marlins threw the ball well in all three games, and saved their best performance for last. Emerging ace Max Meyer just carved up this Nats lineup with elite breaking balls. The sweeper and slider were both working well for the 27 year old, who has pitched like an All-Star this year. He struck out 7 and also got 7 ground outs.
There were a couple missed opportunities for the Nats offense, but for most of the day, they were just being dominated. Keibert Ruiz, Jacob Young and Luis Garcia Jr. were the only ones who looked like they had a chance for most of this series. Young hit the only Nats home run of the series, while the contact oriented Marlins hit 8 homers.
While the depth pieces have been solid for this Nats offense, this group really goes as CJ Abrams and James Wood go. When the big guns are rolling, this offense is elite. However, when they go quiet, the house of cards begins to fold. In this series, the duo went 3/23 with 9 strikeouts. Today it felt like Wood and Abrams were both trying to do too much to spark the struggling offense.
Daylen Lile had a good game yesterday, but he has been in an extended slump since his massive series against the Reds with his family in the house. Lile’s increased chase rate is alarming. Last season, he chased 26.7% of the time, which is slightly less than the average hitter. Impressively, he was able to do this while being very aggressive in the zone. This season, Lile’s chase rate is up 10% to 36.7% which is in the 14th percentile.
We are going to do a deeper dive on Lile, but the Nats need him to step up. He was a big part of this offense at the end of last season, and has gone on some very impressive runs this season as well. However, his season has been slightly underwhelming so far, especially offensively.
On the mound, the Nats were lucky to only allow 4 runs. The Marlins were putting constant pressure on Nats pitchers. Nationals pitchers were constantly falling behind hitters and nibbling as well. They walked 8 and gave up 10 hits. Usually when that happens, you are allowing at least 6 runs. However, the Marlins were not great with runners in scoring position. Fortunately for them, the Nats offense was in no mood to make them pay.
Sweeps happen in baseball, but this stings. However, what happens next is what will truly define this season. The Nats are at a crossroads right now. They can either bounce back and keep their exciting season rolling on this west coast trip, or this could be where everything goes off the rails.
Last season, the Nats entered June only two games under .500 before everything unraveled. Another June swoon would be so discouraging for a Nats fanbase that was beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel. It could also have major implications on CJ Abrams’ future. If the Nats fold again in June, it makes it much easier for Paul Toboni to stick to his original timeline and trade CJ Abrams.
However, if the Nats prove that this was just a blip, we could push forward with Abrams and try to maximize his window. It may sound melodramatic, but how the Nats respond to this sweep could legitimately decide the future direction of this franchise for years to come.
