The Houston Texans were the first team Drake Maye faced as an NFL starting quarterback, but a lot has changed since Week 6 of the 2024 season. Maye is a legitimate MVP candidate now, who has helped the New England Patriots recapture the AFC East and return to the postseason. The Texans, meanwhile, have taken another step forward on defense and are now arguably the best in the league at throwing a wrench in other teams’ offensive aspirations.
With that said, let’s find out more about the Patriots’
divisional round opponent. To do so, we spoke with Scott Barzilla of Pats Pulpit’s sister site Battle Red Blog, the SB Nation community for all things Texans.
Here is what he told us about the upcoming game and opponent.
1. What are the keys to moving the ball against this Texans defense?
Obviously, no defense is perfect and the Texans defense isn’t perfect either. The Pats will be tempted to keep their tight ends in to block, but that would play into the Texans hands. Defensively, they have shut down wide receivers most of the season, but they usually have more issues with tight ends. Their corners are the best in the NFL, but after Jalen Pitre and Calen Bullock they are pretty thin at safety.
Additionally, the Texans can get caught overpursuing the quarterback and they are usually good to allow one 20+ yard scramble per game. Those have come at terrible times this year. Drake Maye is certainly more than capable of doing that, so those two elements concern me.
2. There are plenty of studs on the Texans’ defense, but which players may be flying under the radar?
Pitre got absolutely robbed of a Pro Bowl berth. He was the highest rated safety in the NFL for several weeks according to Pro Football Focus. He and Bullock are solid safeties in the run and pass game. Derek Stingley Jr. was a first-team All-Pro at corner, but Kamari Lassiter actually had a better season.
I think the most impressive thing about this defense is the sheer depth they have on the defensive line. Everyone focuses on Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, but they can rotate four or five solid edge rushers throughout the game and all of them (including Derek Barnett and Denico Autry) can get to the quarterback. Sheldon Rankins and Tommy Togai have been solid on the inside. There isn’t quite as much interior DL depth, but overall all of the guys they do have are proficient at getting to the quarterback.
3. How has the Texans offense grown and overcome injures this season? What’s the strength of this unit?
The biggest injury has been Joe Mixon. We still aren’t quite sure what happened to Mixon, but he was missed particularly early in the season. The Texans relied more heavily on Woody Marks in the second half and that has made a huge difference. None of the Texans backs will blow you away with their numbers, but they have been effective during the 10-game winning streak.
No one is going to confuse the Texans with the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams teams or the 49ers of the 1980s, but they have been effective simply by not making mistakes. They had the fewest turnovers in the NFL in the regular season. Obviously, C.J. Stroud had a rough day on Monday night, but normally they do a very good job of taking care of the football.
4. How did the Texans get their ground game going against the Steelers? Do you think they can replicate that success against a healthy Patriots defense?
I think in general, the Texans offensive line has been getting stronger as the season has gone on. A large part of that is shuffling some key guys in the lineup and replacing guys that were less effective. The combination of Marks and Nick Chubb was strong on Monday night. Overall, the running game has been inconsistent from week to week, so I’m not sure what we will see on Sunday. I’m certainly hopeful that we will see more of the same, but I can’t necessarily bank on that.
During the regular season, the line was ranked 30th in the NFL in pass block win rate and 32nd (we call that dead ass last in these parts) in run block win rate. Obviously, Monday night was better than that and if they are better than that again they will have a good chance.
5. Who do you see coming out on top and why?
I am picking the Patriots 17-14. Houston NFL teams are 0-12 in divisional round playoff games in my football viewing lifetime (since 1980). I cannot pick them to win a divisional round game until I see them do it. I feel like they have a better chance this season than in years past.
The Texans have been huge underdogs in seemingly every other instance playing in this round. I certainly think they could win this game and I could even elevate that to should, but I cannot predict it until I see it happen. The over/under is at 41.5, so I would pound the under and never look back. These were the two best defenses in the gcard round. I see at least one of these teams if not both struggling to score.
