Well, the worst-kept secret in college basketball is out in the open: Luke Loucks can coach.
The second-year Florida State head coach has received praise throughout the offseason after turning the Seminoles’ basketball program around, from an ugly start last year to winning 10 of their final 13 games. ESPN’s Jeff Borzello listed Florida State as a “team he would pound the table for” in one of ESPN’s college basketball mega-previews last week. The ACC media has also been drinking the Kool-Aid, ranking
the Noles seventh in the 2026-27 preseason media poll, eight spots higher than last year ahead of Loucks’ first season.
But with the start of the college basketball season almost here, what should the expectations for Florida State men’s hoops be this season?
“I don’t really care about preseason rankings, but I assume we’ll be somewhere in the middle to lower half of the ACC, and it’s my job and these guys’ job to continue to overachieve and push towards that upper tier of the ACC where we’re competing for a title,” Loucks said at ACC media days.
Of course, in today’s athletics, the best marker of success is the dollars invested, and the Noles are still below average in the ACC and nationally. CBS Sports released estimated roster costs for every program in the country and tabbed FSU between $7 and $10 million, triple its 2025-26 roster cost but still in the sixth tier out of seven nationally. The good news for Florida State, though, is that seven other ACC teams are either in Tier 6 or Tier 7, essentially half the conference.
“Operationally and foundationally, we had an entire year to get our feet under us and understand what we wanted and what we needed to build as a program,” Loucks said. “Then, resources-wise, I think we were dead last in the ACC and dead last in Power Five basketball last season. We were fortunate enough to fight and still tie for seventh in the ACC, but our resources went up.”
Then there is the Seminoles’ schedule, which is a double-edged sword: playing high-quality teams to boost FSU’s NET ranking versus seeking blowout wins against lesser competition. Currently, Florida State plays three top-10 teams in non-conference play: No. 1 Florida, No. 8 Tennessee, and No. 10 Houston, while facing all four ACC teams currently ranked in the preseason top 25. Loucks gave his team some breathers during the non-conference slate, with seven games against teams ranked 150th or worse in NET last season, excluding FSU’s game against West Florida.
“Going back to the foundation of what we’re building at Florida State, I think the conference is better when Florida State is one of those top-tier teams,” Loucks said. “You look at obviously Duke and Carolina and the history they have, Louisville, and the job that Coach (Ryan) Odom did at Virginia, the job that Coach (Jai) Lucas did at Miami. I’m excited to get into that tier as a program, and I think we have the support to do it from top-down.”
Ultimately, what matters most for Florida State is the roster makeup, which looks vastly different from a year ago, both in how the Noles will play and who’s on the roster. Alex Steen is the only rotational player returning from a season ago until AJ Swinton gets healthy, as FSU lost its top five minute-getters from the 2025-26 season.
In their place are four P5 transfers, a first-team All-Big South Selection, and the 24th-ranked recruiting class with eight freshmen, according to 247Sports. The Seminoles should have positional size 1-4, and depending on Marcis Ponder’s conditioning, throughout the lineup. It should let Loucks’ team force turnovers, rebound, and get out and run — three things he prioritizes — but it may take time for the group to gel. Along with the risk of taking a brand-new roster, the team’s high-end talent and shooting are a question mark.
Loucks believes this team will win by committee, with multiple leading scorers throughout the season, but when Florida State needs a big shot, who will take it? Is there a Robert McCray V on this roster?
“Efficiency is the way we want to play, the way we want to move, the way we want to share the ball, the type of shots we want to generate,” Loucks said. “Most of those are created for someone else. To me, the best way is to play fast, that’s efficient, but ultimately, to break down the paint, to get the ball in the paint, to get it closer to the rim.”
So what does an up-and-coming coach with a roster that fits his style and whose team is facing an average schedule mean for FSU this year? With the tournament expanding to 76 teams, the Noles should be a bubble team all year and will need to avoid bad losses — something they struggled with last season and under Leonard Hamilton — to avoid the dreaded Quad 3 or Quad 4 loss and keep their NET rating high.
But beyond making the tournament, Florida State’s top priority in the 2026-27 season is for men’s hoops to establish itself as a program that deserves backing from the new athletic administration. A signature home win would be massive for Loucks, along with improved capacity inside the Tucker Center.
Turning the energy into tangible action should be the focus this season. Given where the program was when Loucks took over last year, this was never going to be a one-year rebuild. But developing the freshman class, pushing for a postseason run and continuing to grow the relationship with the fan base are realistic goals for Florida State this season and would mean Loucks checked another box.
