No. 1 Indiana football is set to take on No. 9 Alabama at the 2026 Rose Bowl game, which doubles as a College Football Playoff quarterfinal, on Thursday, January 1 in Pasadena, California.
The Hoosiers locked up the No. 1-seed in the playoff with a win over No. 2-seed Ohio State in the Big Ten Football Championship game while the Crimson Tide advanced after a road win over No. 8-seed Oklahoma in the first round.
Indiana currently sits as a 7.5-point favorite and -260 to win the game, per FanDuel Sportsbook.
There’s clear paths to win, the Hoosiers just have to take advantage.
Here’s three keys to the matchup:
Getting pressure on Ty Simpson
It’s no secret that Alabama has struggled mightily running the football this season, especially as of late with leading rusher Jam Miller out with a collarbone injury for multiple weeks.
The Crimson Tide picked up just 28 yards on 25 carries, good for just 1.1 yards per attempt, in their first round win over Oklahoma. That includes sack yardage, so it’s worth going through what the backfield gained: Daniel Hill picked up 43 yards on nine carries, good for 4.8 yards per attempt, while Miller returning from aforementioned injury, picked up 11 yards on seven carries, good for 1.6 yards per attempt.
The numbers were worse against Georgia. Alabama picked up -3 yards on 16 carries, which obviously includes sack yardage. Hill picked up 11 yards on four carries and AK Dear picked up 10 yards on three carries.
As a result, the offense is heavily dependent on quarterback Ty Simpson, who’s mostly done his job with three touchdowns and an interception in the Tide’s past two games. Without that, Alabama doesn’t beat Oklahoma and might not make it close.
Indiana’s done a great job of pressuring opposing quarterbacks and will have to do so with limited depth given Stephen Daley’s injury after the Big Ten Football Championship game. If the Hoosiers can consistently get to Simpson, Alabama’s path to victory becomes significantly more narrow.
Running the football
As stated above, Alabama has struggled running the football this season. Indiana has not.
The Hoosiers, as a team, have gained 2,875 total yards on the ground this season on 524 rushing attempts with 29 touchdowns. That’s good for 5.5 yards per carry. Indiana’s total rushing production ranks 10th nationally and their average ranks 13th.
Indiana’s rushing attack is led by Roman Hemby, who’s rushed for 918 yards and six touchdowns, gaining 5.2 per carry. Behind him is Kaelon Black, who’s rushed for 799 yards and seven touchdowns, gaining 5.6 per carry. Black stepped up after Lee Beebe Jr. suffered a season-ending injury against Indiana State.
If Indiana finds success on the ground, it can keep the ball out of Ty Simpson’s hands and wear down the Alabama defense over the course of the game, dictating the terms in the process. Keep the mental and physical pressure on Simpson to make plays when he has the ball. He’s absolutely capable, but Indiana’s offense has shown it can answer.
Fernando Mendoza on third down
Finally, if Indiana finds itself in disadvantageous third and long situations, Fernando Mendoza has to be able to capitalize.
As previously stated, Simpson is a talented playmaker and has plenty of options in the passing game. He’ll likely be key to Alabama’s all-around gameplan as their most effective method of pushing the ball down the field. Mendoza’s going to have to answer the call, doing what he does best.
That doesn’t mean asking him to be Superman for four quarters. It means reading the defense and delivering strikes with confidence when the offense needs it most, on third down situations. Indiana has played remarkably well on that down this season, but now it’s more important than ever.
