Entering the 13th and final week of the 2026 Mountain West Softball season, every single seed in the conference tournament is still up for grabs. Only one team has been eliminated from tournament contention (San Jose State), but not every team in the conference can possibly earn every seed available. To dispell some of the probable confusion, let’s take a look at which teams are still eligible to take each seed in the conference tournament, ordered by their current rank in the conference standings
(tiebreakers excluded).
#1 seed: Grand Canyon, Nevada
#2 seed: Grand Canyon, Nevada, UNLV
#3 seed: Nevada, UNLV
#4 seed: Colorado State, Fresno State, New Mexico, San Diego State
#5 seed: Colorado State, Fresno State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Boise State
#6 seed: Colorado State, Fresno State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Boise State, Utah State
Now, let’s take a deeper dive into what each team needs to have happen in order to make the conference tournament at each eligible seed.
#1 Seed (Conference Title, First-Round Bye)
Eligible teams: 2 (Grand Canyon, Nevada)
Grand Canyon: (1) Series win vs. Colorado State (2) Series loss vs. Colorado State + 1 UNLV win vs. Nevada (3) Series swept vs. Colorado State + UNLV series win vs. Nevada
Nevada: (1) Series sweep vs. UNLV + GCU series loss vs. Colorado State (2) Series sweep/win vs. UNLV + GCU series swept vs. Colorado State
Preview: The #1 seed is GCU’s to lose at this point. The Lopes are two games up on Nevada entering the final week of the season, on the verge of ending their debut MW season with a conference title. Nevada does hold the tiebreaker over GCU due to head-to-head record, so all the Lopes need to do is finish with at least one more conference win than the Wolf Pack get. That should be easy going into a series against a Colorado State team whose last home series resulted in a 36-10 combined sweep against the Wolf Pack.
Nevada’s only realistic hope is a series sweep over UNLV and a GCU series loss to Colorado State. Nevada has never swept UNLV in a three-game series in Las Vegas, and haven’t swept the Rebels at all in a three-game series since 2021. Nevada can also make it in via a simple series win against the Rebels, but that would require the Lopes to get swept in a conference series, which is something that the Lopes have not allowed since 2015, their second season at the Division 1 level. That’s not even considering the rivalry aspect of the UNLV series, or the fact that the Rebels can still take the #2 seed away from the Wolf Pack. If Nevada loses one game against the Rebels, and the Lopes get a single win against the Rams, the party will finally be able to begin for the team from Phoenix.
#2 Seed (First-Round Bye)
Eligible teams: 3 (Grand Canyon, Nevada, UNLV)
Grand Canyon: (1) Series loss vs. Colorado State + Nevada series sweep vs. UNLV (2) Series swept vs. Colorado State + Nevada series win vs. UNLV
Nevada: (1) Series win/sweep vs. UNLV + GCU series sweep/win vs. Colorado State
UNLV: (1) Series sweep/win vs. Nevada
Preview: Nevada is currently in the #2 seed spot, and while GCU technically can wind up in this slot, the most likely battle for this spot is between Nevada and UNLV. Unless GCU loses their series to Colorado State, the winner of this weekend’s Silver State Series clash will be the 2 seed in the tournament, thus avoiding the single-elimination first round.
#3 Seed
Eligible teams: 2 (Nevada, UNLV)
Nevada: (1) Series loss/swept vs. UNLV
UNLV: (1) Series loss/swept vs. Nevada
Preview: Same scenario as above, except flipped. The loser of the Nevada-UNLV series will be the conference’s #3 seed. Seeing as UNLV cannot win a tiebreaker against GCU at this point, the Lopes cannot wind up here.
#4 Seed
Eligible teams: 4 (Colorado State, Fresno State, New Mexico, San Diego State)
Colorado State: (1) Series sweep vs. GCU (2) Series win vs. GCU + Fresno St. 1 loss vs. San Diego St. (3) Series loss vs. GCU + Fresno St. series loss vs. San Diego St. + New Mexico 1 loss vs. Utah St. (4) Series swept vs. GCU + Fresno St. series swept vs. SDSU + New Mexico series loss/swept vs. Utah St. + Boise St. series sweep vs. San Jose St.
Fresno State: (1) Series sweep vs. San Diego St. + Colorado St. 1 loss vs. GCU + New Mexico 1 loss vs. Utah St. (2) Series win vs. San Diego St. + Colorado St. series loss vs. GCU + New Mexico series loss vs. Utah St. (3) Series loss vs. San Diego St. + Colorado St. series swept vs. GCU + New Mexico series swept vs. Utah St.
New Mexico: (1) Series sweep vs. Utah St. + Colorado St. series loss vs. GCU (2) Series win vs. Utah St. + Colorado St. series swept vs. GCU
San Diego State: (1) Series sweep vs. Fresno St. + Colorado St. series swept vs. GCU + New Mexico series swept vs. Utah St. + Boise St. 1 loss vs. San Jose St.
Preview: Now we get into the chaos. Four teams are eligible for the conference’s #4 seed, and that number will only grow for the rest of the list. Colorado State currently holds the #4 seed, but they are very unlikely to end up in this spot due to their final series being against GCU. The Rams clinch this spot if they swept the Lopes (yeah, sure), but would also take it home with an upset series win and at least one Bulldog loss to San Diego State. There are very complicated ways in which the Rams can still get it if they lose their series to the Lopes, but they all require a lot to go their way.
Fresno State can get the #4 seed if they sweep, win, or lose their series to the Aztecs, so long as both CSU and New Mexico each lose one more game than the Bulldogs do. Fresno State owns the season tiebreaker over the Rams, but does not over New Mexico. New Mexico, on the other hand, owns the tiebreaker over the Bulldogs, but does not hold it over the Rams. Thus, New Mexico must win two more games than the Rams do this weekend to have a chance at this spot. Finally, San Diego State can still technically get this spot due to holding the season tiebreaker over the Rams, but getting this spot would require them to sweep the Bulldogs, both CSU and UNM to get swept, and for Boise State to take at least one loss to San Jose State. In other words, this scenario is perhaps the least likely out of all of them.
#5 Seed
Eligible teams: 5 (Colorado State, Fresno State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Boise State)
Colorado State: (1) Series win vs. GCU + Fresno St. series sweep vs. San Diego St. (2) Series loss vs. GCU + Fresno State series sweep/win vs. San Diego St. OR New Mexico series sweep vs. Utah St. (3) Series swept vs. GCU + Fresno State series sweep/win/loss vs. San Diego St. OR New Mexico series sweep/win vs. Utah St.
Fresno State: (1) Series sweep vs. San Diego St. + Colorado St. series sweep vs. GCU + New Mexico 1 loss vs. Utah St. (2) Series win vs. San Diego St. + Colorado St. series sweep/win vs. GCU + New Mexico series loss vs. Utah St. (3) Series loss vs. San Diego St. + Colorado St. series sweep/win/loss vs. GCU + New Mexico series swept vs. Utah St. + Boise St. 1 loss vs. San Jose St.
New Mexico: (1) Series sweep vs. Utah St. + Colorado St. series sweep/win vs. GCU (2) Series win vs. Utah St. + Colorado St. series sweep/win/loss vs. GCU OR Fresno St. series sweep/win vs. San Diego St. (3) Series loss vs. Utah St. + Fresno St. series swept vs. San Diego St.
San Diego State: (1) Series sweep vs. Fresno St. + Colorado St. series sweep/win/loss vs. GCU + New Mexico series swept vs. Utah St. + Boise St. 1 loss vs. San Jose St. (2) Series sweep vs. Fresno St. + Colorado St. series swept vs. GCU + New Mexico series sweep/win vs. Utah St. + Boise St. 1 loss vs. San Jose St.
Boise State: (1) Series sweep vs. San Jose St. + San Diego St. series sweep/win vs. Fresno St. + New Mexico series swept vs. Utah St.
Preview: Moving on to the five seed, most scenarios from the four seed return, just with one fewer win for each team. Colorado State is most likely to end up here if they do end up losing their series to GCU, so long as both Fresno State and New Mexico do not both sweep their opponents. Fresno State can only wind up here if they win the same number of games as CSU does, as well as New Mexico losing one more game than they do. In the Lobos’ case, they simply need to win the same number of games this weekend as the Bulldogs do, and they will end up with the #5 seed unless that number of wins happens to be zero.
Both San Diego State and Boise State can wind up with the #5 seed, though both would have to sweep their opponents and have New Mexico get swept by Utah State. In SDSU’s case, Boise State would still have to win one fewer game than they did, as the Broncos hold the tiebreaker over the Aztecs.
#6 Seed
Eligible teams: 6 (Colorado State, Fresno State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Boise State, Utah State)
Colorado State: (1) Series loss vs. GCU + Fresno St. series sweep/win vs. San Diego St. + New Mexico series sweep vs. Utah St. (2) series swept vs. GCU + Fresno St. series sweep/win/loss vs. San Diego St. + New Mexico series sweep/win vs. Utah St. + Boise St. 1 loss vs. San Jose St.
Fresno State: (1) Series sweep vs. San Diego St. + Colorado St. series sweep vs. GCU + New Mexico series sweep vs. Utah St. (2) Series win vs. San Diego St. + Colorado St. series sweep/win vs. GCU + New Mexico series sweep/win vs. Utah St. (3) Series loss vs. San Diego St. + Colorado St. series sweep/win/loss vs. GCU + New Mexico series sweep/win/loss vs. Utah St. + Boise St. 1 loss vs. San Jose St.
New Mexico: (1) Series win vs. Utah St. + Colorado St. series sweep/win/loss vs. GCU + Fresno St. series sweep vs. San Diego St. (2) Series loss vs. Utah St. + Fresno St. series sweep vs. San Diego St. (3) Series swept vs. Utah St. + Fresno St. series swept vs. San Diego St.
San Diego State: (1) Series sweep vs. Fresno St. + Boise St. 1 loss vs. San Jose St. + Colorado St. 1 win vs. GCU OR New Mexico series loss/swept vs. Utah St.
Boise State: (1) Series sweep vs. San Jose St. + Fresno St. series loss/swept vs. San Diego St. OR New Mexico series loss/swept vs. Utah St.
Utah State: (1) Series sweep vs. New Mexico + San Diego St. series loss/swept vs. Fresno St. + Boise St. series swept vs. San Jose St.
Preview: Finally, we reach the chaos that is the #6 seed. As you can see above, there are so many different ways each team can wind up in this spot that explaining all of them would take all day. The most likely outcome based on recent team performance is actually Colorado State taking home this spot, which would take place if they got swept by GCU and Fresno State does not get swept by the Aztecs. If Fresno State did get swept by the Aztecs, they would be fully eliminated from conference tournament contention, regardless of what any other teams do.
San Diego State and Boise State’s most likely outcomes for making the tournament would be making it to this spot, but interestingly enough, Utah State can actually still make it to the tournament as the #6 seed. That would require them sweeping the Lobos, as well as San Diego State and Boise State both getting swept in their respective series. This is outlandish at best and impossible at worst, but I’m quite impressed that the Aggies are still eligible for the tournament at all, given their horrific run of form over the last two months.
Conclusion and Prediction
This should be a chaotic and fun way to close out an awesome season of Mountain West Softball. This will be the final time some of these teams play each other as members of the same conference for the foreseeable future, so it will also be a somber occasion for fans of the Mountain West as it has been since 2013. It is assured that these teams will meet again in preseason invitationals and nonconference series due to location alone, but it will feel weird seeing the Battle of the Valley and Sierra Series rivalries, among other budding feuds, not being conference matchups anymore. Mushy nostalgia aside, it’s time for a prediction of what I believe everything will shape out to be this weekend:
#1 seed: Grand Canyon (3-0 vs. CSU, 21-4 MW)
#2 seed: Nevada (2-1 vs. UNLV, 18-7 MW)
#3 seed: UNLV (1-2 vs. NEV, 16-9 MW)
#4 seed: New Mexico (3-0 vs. USU, 13-12 MW)
#5 seed: Fresno State (2-1 vs. SDSU, 12-13 MW)
#6 seed: Colorado State (0-3 vs. SDSU, 11-14 MW)
1st team out: Boise State (2-1 vs. SJSU, 10-15 MW)
2nd team out: San Diego State (1-2 vs. FST, 9-16 MW)
3rd team out: San Jose State (1-2 vs. BOIS, 8-17 MW)
4th team out: Utah State (0-3 vs. UNM, 7-18 MW)
