Every other city we go; every other video; no matter where I go, I see the same… NFL power rankings for the Miami Dolphins. Pick a site… any site… and I guarantee you that you’ll see the Miami Dolphins ranked 32nd. That negative 3-star restaurant that gave you expired sushi and cold pizza rolls? They have a higher ranking than the Dolphins and they aren’t even an NFL team. Expectations are THAT low for the Dolphins. Everyone expects this team to be the Keystone Cops of the league, being a day off
for any opponent to play them. Even the most optimistic media source out there predicts a high total of 5 wins. Five. One, two, three, four, FIIIIIFFFFTH!
Well don’t let the eternal optimist within you listen to the negativity. The 2026 Miami Dolphins are here to spit in the wind face of all the doubters. Even if they don’t, they will be a tougher out than people are expecting and maybe even fun to watch. Ol’ Earl’s here with some bold predictions that will show you how.
1. MALIK WILLIS PROVES TO BE A FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK
I was firmly on board the “Sign Malik Willis” train in March and was incredibly excited when I saw the news he was going to be a Dolphin. Losing receiver Jaylen Waddle put a dent into the expectations for the signal caller, but the rookie class has stepped up and may give some electricity to the pass catching units. But they are rookies and rookies have growing pains and lessons to learn and all the other 90s sitcoms tropes.
But that won’t stop me from making this prediction. I highlighted what I think will be baseline expectations for Willis on Substack. Now, I’m predicting he will exceed them. I believe he will pass all the “eye test” criteria. I also think he will exceed the statistical baseline. I’m going to go with a 66% CP, 7.7 YPA, 5.7% TD%, and 1.8% INT%. Using my same dropbacks and attempts totals (595 dropbacks; 476 attempts), that gives him a stat line of 314-476, 3665 yards, 27 TDs, and 9 INTs. That would yield a passer rating of 100.17. Looking at 2025 stats, that would put 12th in yards (a grand total of 3 yards behind what Josh Allen threw for), 16th in completion percentage (just under, but in line with Burrow, Herbert, and Love), tied for 6th in TDs thrown, 7th in TD%, and 10th in passer rating. Those aren’t All-Pro numbers, MVP numbers, or numbers that necessarily stand out. But given the overall situation, these numbers mean that Miami has found their QB for now and the future.
2. TIGHT END GREG DULCICH ECLIPSES 1000 RECEIVING YARDS
Dulcich was an afterthought to most fans during the 2025 offseason. The Dolphins added him to the practice squad in late August, then elevated him in late October. He played in 10 games, with 3 starts. He didn’t play until week 8. He didn’t receive a target until week 9. He managed to get 33 targets, 26 catches, 335 yards, and 1 TD. His 33 targets in those 9 games works out to 3.7 or so per game. In 2026, he does not have any target hogs in front of him. There is no more Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, or Darren Waller. The rookie class looks promising, but they need to prove it. While that loss of proven talent hurts overall, this gives Dulcich a big opportunity step into a prominent role. He has already developed some chemistry with Malik Willis and he was making plays in OTAs. He was quiet in preseason, but the starters didn’t get much playing time.
Can he really get to 1000 yards though? Last season, his yards per reception average was 12.9. He had couple of games below 10, but he was mostly above 11. For the sake of argument, let’s say he averages 12 even. To get to 1000 yards, he would need 84 receptions. Based on his catch percentage, he’d need about 108 targets. On a per game basis, that’s 6.4 targets. Are you telling me that the Dolphins and all the questions regarding their pass catchers, can’t find 3 more targets per game to Dulcich? Yes, I know the Dolphins want to be more run oriented. But last season saw the Dolphins throw the least of any season under McDaniel. There were still targets to go around. It can be done.
3. THE OFFENSIVE LINE RANKS TOP 10 FOR THE SEASON
Ah yes… the dreaded profootballfocus talk. They posted their2026 OL rankings and surprisingly, the Dolphins were not ranked in the low 40s. They weren’t even last! They were in the bottom quartile, however. But do not fear folks… for I predict that the Miami Dolphins offensive line will have fans turning those thumbs the right way up and that the OL will be a top-10 unit in the league. In what you ask? Pressures allowed. Pressures allowed per game. Per dropback. Pass Block Win Rate. Run Block Win Rate. Best dressed. Iron Chef rankings. I care not for what metric is to be used. Miami’s offensive line will be top 10 in ALL of them. Outside of QB, I can’t think of a position or position group more polarizing to Dolphins fans. It doesn’t matter who they sign, how much they spend, who they draft, or how many players they draft. The offensive line remains a sore spot. In 2026, the OL will shut the fans up. Well… most of them. Patrick Paul continues to develop into one of the best LTs in the league and was named captain. Kadyn Proctor locks down the LG spot and strikes fear into the hearts of interior DL. Aaron Brewer continues his All-Pro run. Jonah Savaiinaea proves that his rookie season was an aberration and locks down the RG spot. Either Austin Jackson plays all season and plays well, or Caedan Wallace steps in and fills in seamlessly. In either case, the OL goes from constant weakness to a source of strength in 2026. And that’s the bottom line…
4. ALL THREE ROOKIE RECEIVERS HAVE A MINIMUM OF 500 YARDS EACH
The Dolphins knew they needed help in the receiver room and the cheap vets they signed weren’t going to be the answer. They added 3 rookies in the draft. But at the time, there were serious questions. The “consensus” board had Caleb Douglas – the 75th overall pick – as a late day three player and was considered a reach. Chris Bell was coming off an injury that would force him to redshirt his rookie season. Kevin Coleman Jr. was a slot specialist only and would be stuck behind Malik Washington. All that “help” was just half-truths and gorilla dust.
Fast forward to now… the “reach” earned his spot in the starting lineup. Bell hasn’t just returned from injury; he has played real football in a Dolphins uniform. It was real. I seent it. Oh… and guess who is the other outside starter at receiver? Coleman? Making plays in preseason. One could very easily argue that the rookies would have shown out more in preseason if the QB play hadn’t been buns. Well… except for Douglas. He only played the limited reps with the starters and was stashed for the regular season.
Of course, preseason doesn’t mean anything. We’ve all seen players show out, then disappear. But I don’t think this rookie group will. They will be used and used heavily. Receiver is a position that generally transitions quickly from college to the pros. Yeah, learning curve and growing pains and all that. But this trio is going to be a force. To the point they each get at least 500 yards.
Is that too bold? Following the previous predictions, I have Willis at 3665 yards. Dulcich is getting at least 1000 of those. If the rookie trio (assignment for the class: create a nickname for the trio) gets at least 1500 total, that leaves just over 1100 for everyone else. That’s Washington, Achane, and whomever else. So no, I don’t think it’s too bold. I would argue I’m underselling it.
5. CHOP ROBINSON GETS DOUBLE DIGIT SACKS AND MAKES A PRO BOWL
The Dolphins traded Jaelen Phillips last season and released Bradley Chubb this offseason. That left the edge room bereft of talent. They didn’t have the financial resources to go out and sign players. They didn’t really address it in the draft, with the first edge player being a 4th round pick and he is more of a hybrid player. That put the onus to lead the pass rush group firmly on the shoulders of the former 1st round pick. Chop flashed late in his rookie season but took a step back in 2025. Now, under the influence of coach Hafley and working with DL coach Austin Clark, the light bulb appears to be turning on and getting brighter. He has been tabbed as the biggest breakout star of training camp and his best contribution in the very limited preseason action was against the run. The Dolphins may have something with him now.
A prediction of double-digit sacks isn’t necessarily a bold one, though maybe due to the player. In 17 games, he just needs to average 0.6 sacks per game to get to 10. But to make a Pro Bowl? The range to get into what the normal Pro Bowler is in the neighborhood of 14-16 sacks. Robinson has some names to leap over if he wants to get into the Pro Bowl, but he earns the spot.
6. JACOB RODRIGUEZ PLAYS AT A DPOY LEVEL
With all the other needs Miami had, the selection of Rodriguez seemed unusual. They have an All-Pro in Brooks. They had a good starter in Dodson and added depth with Gay and Harrison. So why draft another LB?
Rodriguez is going to prove to everyone just exactly why. He won the starting spot opposite Brooks in camp and made Dodson expendable. He will be a tackling machine just like Brooks and will have close to or over the 129 tackles his predecessor Dodson got last year. Coach Hafley wants LBs that can play in space and cover. Rodriguez will become a force in coverage, getting himself a couple of INTS. We already know about his proclivity for punching out the football. He will force several fumbles this season.
He won’t win DPOY. That will go to the edge rusher with the most sacks or if some defensive back has a ton of interceptions. But his play will put him in the conversation. He’ll definitely be in the running for DROY and winning will again depend on the pass rusher stats.
7. JASON MARSHALL JR. BECOMES OUTSIDE CB1 AND FLASHES LOCKDOWN ABILITY
I don’t think Marshall will be CB1 in the overall scheme. That’s going to be Chris Johnson. But Johnson is also going to play inside when the need arises. Marshall is going to be on the outside primarily. I think he takes it a step further and becomes a lockdown CB. His ability to thrive both in zone and in man will make him tough for receivers to deal with. Quarterbacks will start to look in other places before challenging Marshall. This frees Hafley and Duggan to move pieces around knowing that Marshall has his side locked down.
The Dolphins felt comfortable enough with him this preseason that he primarily sat out like the rest of the starters. The secondary is considered a weakness, but that will fade into distant memory as quarterbacks start to avoid Marshall’s side of the field.
This prediction also comes knowing that Marshall has switched his number from 33 (meh) to 4 (🔥).
8. KYLE LOUIS EARNS A STARTING SAFETY JOB BY MIDSEASON
The Dolphins drafted rookie Kyle Louis as a linebacker. They had listed him on the team site as an ILB. But with Brooks, Rodriguez, Dodson, and Gay in the mix, it was going to be difficult to find a spot for Louis to contribute and get snaps. The safety room on the other hand needed lots of work. Outside of sophomore Dante Trader Jr., who has gotten rave reviews this offseason, the remaining players don’t give you a lot of confidence.
Louis was drafted to be a hybrid LB/SAF/BIG NICKEL defender that he a lot of teams are now employing. The Ravens use Kyle Hamilton in a LB/SAF role. The Seahawks deployed Nick Emmanwori in that role. The difference was those players are safeties playing LB, Louis is a LB playing safety.
The Dolphins have now removed all doubt as he is listed as a safety on the team site. Sully has mentioned him as a player who would play the big nickel. They are giving him the role that everyone expected. But… Sully also mentioned him as an impact player on special teams. That sounds like the transition to safety is going, well… as expected for a rookie changing positions. His snaps there in preseason were predictably rough. But I don’t believe the transition takes all season. By the midway point, Louis will have a firm command of the role and become a starting safety.
At least in the looks with 3 safeties. Not to backtrack here, but we really don’t know what Hafley will do with the secondary. They will use both Johnson and Louis in nickel roles, that will likely depend on the matchups. Regardless, I think Louis proves his worth and forces Hafley to keep him on the field.
9. DJ HERMAN SCORES A RUSHING TOUCHDOWN AND A RECEIVING TOUCHDOWN
Usually, players that get a “tryout” don’t end up making a 90-man roster for training camp. Teams try players out all the time and nothing ever comes of it. DJ Herman was an undrafted rookie linebacker from San Diego State with 56 tackles, 1 TFL, and 2 PD in 49 games in college. That’s not great production. But the Dolphins gave him a tryout anyway. As a fullback. What? The 6’1”, 242 lb. linebacker was now going to be an offensive player… at an NFL tryout. The odds were not in his favor.
Herman aced the tryout and earned a spot on the 90-man training camp roster. But there was no way he was going to make an ACTUAL NFL roster. Until he did. Herman got a ton of reps in preseason and played along side the starters. He did well enough that he survived all the cuts and waiver process. That is a success story that fans love to hear. It helps that the player listed ahead of him on the depth chart at fullback, Ben Sims, ended up on IR. But Herman can only play the hand he was dealt.
There were expected struggles. He had two targets in the passing game and dropped both. He did not have a single rush attempt. The Dolphins kept him because of his blocking and demeanor. He hits linebackers like… a linebacker. He is going to help Achane and the run game be very productive this season. But he likely isn’t going to be a focal point of the offense. I don’t think he’ll have more than 15 carries all season and no more than about 20 targets. But he will score at least one time on the ground and one time in the air (where Miami is ALWAYS in control). That will be quality work for a tryout player.
10. THE DOLPHINS CAN WIN AT LEAST 7 GAMES IN 2026
WHAT?!?!? There is no way the Dolphins can pull that off, right? They are just too weak on defense and don’t have enough playmakers to get it done. Well, maybe. I don’t worry too much about the strength of schedule and all of that. Teams change year-to-year, maybe not with the severity of what the Dolphins did, but they change, nonetheless.
Let’s start with the Dolphins themselves and my bold predictions. It starts with the quarterback. If Willis plays like I predict, then he will give opponents fits. If he throws like I predict AND uses the rushing aspect of his game effectively, the Dolphins will control the clock, extend drives, and put points on the board. If Dulcich and the rookie WRs get what I predict, the offense will not be a weakness.
The Dolphins are also going to be a more physical team, especially up front. The offensive line is one of the biggest in the league. The interior OL is the 2nd heaviest in the league at 975 lbs., second only to Dallas. They are going to move people. The defensive line is young, but they are going to be physical at the point of attack also. Phillips is already a solid run stuffing NT and is only tapping into his potential. This isn’t a finesse team with shiny toys. This is a team that has a converted linebacker as a fullback. Lacking talent? Maybe. Soft? Not a chance.
Finally, there is a mentality shift. Yeah, we have heard it all before but look at who is leading; look at the captains. You have Willis who has been overlooked and written off his entire life. You have guys with chips on their shoulders and a desire to be great. You have guys like Paul who stated he could have gone on vacation in his off time but stayed in Miami with the rest of the OL to work. All these captains are hard-hat, lunch pail players who eat, drink, and sleep football. Some have their big contracts but they’re still in the building working. Gone are the self-serving divas who care only about the dollars and “show me the money”. You think these guys don’t see the power rankings and predictions and the “March For Arch” tanking stuff? You don’t think that is a driving motivation for them? Sure, there is some areas that are lacking in overall talent. But many of these groups have young players just waiting to explode onto the scene. The safety room may be a weakness now, but why can’t Trader and Louis and Taaffe be answers? Why can’t these rookie receivers be dominant from the start? If you told me the starting WR room was Tolbert, Atwell, and some other cheap vet, then I’d be inclined to worry about the talent. But we haven’t seen what Douglas, Bell, and Coleman can do.
Now… (takes deep breath)… back to the prediction. I prefer to look at the schedule and see what games are winnable and which are not. Of course, the Dolphins tend to win some people don’t expect and lose some that people don’t expect. But barring all that, I see 7 games the Dolphins have a good chance to win.
Division games are always wildcards. The Dolphins beat the Bills last year for the 1st time since week 3 of 2022. They won handily too. But even being hard to predict, I don’t see the Jets as being so much better than the Dolphins that the Dolphins can’t win the game. In the last 10 years, the Jets have beaten the Dolphins 4 times in 20 tries. Does anyone remember the last time the Jets won in Miami? December 28, 2014 (the “home” game loss in 2015 was in London). I’m not going to tell you the Dolphins WILL win these games, but I wouldn’t bet on the Jets to win either. That’s 2 possible wins. And those Willis revenge games against Vrabel could be epic.
Out of division possible wins? Just need 5. That would be Las Vegas week 1, Minnesota week 4, Cincinnati week 5, Indianapolis week 10, Chicago week 14, and Los Angeles week 16. I could give some reasons for why, such as Cincinnati, Minnesota, and Chicago all having 21st or lower ranked run defenses last season. Or offensive changes such as a new quarterback for the Vikings. Or a west coast team traveling east to play a 1PM game like the Chargers.
Again, I’m not going to try and pick the ACTUAL games, because there are too many variables week to week. But I can tell you that there are several winnable games and if Miami’s young talent steps up like we hope, then 7 wins isn’t all that bold of a prediction. Don’t be shocked if/when it happens.
I SAID WHAT I SAID
You tell me… am I close? Are my predictions way out past the Oort Cloud in terms of closeness? Personally, I am simultaneously optimistic and pessimistic for the 2026 team. I don’t have expectations of a bunch of wins, and I really had to talk myself into seven. But I’m also willing to admit there is a great deal of mystery with this team. With so much youth and only potential to bank on at quarterback, I can understand why everyone is down on the team. But I can also see the silver lining of what that potential could be. It’s gonna be a wild ride for sure. Let us live the dream while we can.
