The Wisconsin Badgers offense has been one of the worst in the country to date this season. They’ve managed to get worse in each year so far of the Luke Fickell era, ranking 65th in yards per game in 2023
to 99th in 2024, and now an ugly 131st in 2025 with 271.3 yards per game.
That’s not all. Wisconsin is 133rd in the country in points per game (13.3) and is averaging just five points per game during Big Ten play after getting shut out over the past two weeks.
The offense has been completely nonexistent over the last three games. Here’s the outcome of Wisconsin’s last 31 drives:
21 punts
4 INTs
3 turnover on downs
1 Fumble
1 End of Game
1 Field goal
That’s inexcusable. But, the Badgers haven’t had any fixes or potential solutions yet to their offensive problems. So, let’s identify the problem and see where any success could be had.
Charting the last few games, Wisconsin’s biggest issue has come on first downs. And head coach Luke Fickell knows that.
Against Ohio State, the Badgers deviated from their previous gameplans and heavily ran the ball on first downs in the first half. On 10 first downs, the Badgers ran the ball eight times for just 14 yards. Subsequently, they dropped back twice, completing a pass for 15 yards and getting sacked on the other play.
Against Iowa, they were much more balanced, running seven times for 36 yards on first downs in the first half, while dropping back six times, completing three passes for 53 yards and an interception.
Wisconsin did get offensive momentum in that game a couple of times. Their opening drive was thwarted one yard short of a first down. An interception killed their next drive. After a 16-yard pass on first down, another interception ended their third drive. Then, Wisconsin had two chances to convert one yard and failed for a three-and-out. Then came an ugly fumble from Hunter Simmons, a turnover-on-downs on 4th & 1 in the air, and a punt in Iowa territory. Big yikes.
Wisconsin needs to be balanced, though, if it wants to move the ball on early downs.
Against Michigan, their offense was very similar to the Ohio State game. After a beautiful opening drive that had nine runs and three passes (all on first downs for 36 yards), the Badgers really tried to get their running game going, to no avail. Wisconsin ended up running eight times on first down for just 24 yards (one jet sweep for 5 yards), while completing 5/6 passes on first down for 59 yards in the first half.
After that first drive, Wisconsin had five rushes for 12 yards and was 2/3 on passes for 23 yards on first down.
Wisconsin did have success running against Maryland on first downs in Week 5, but they haven’t since, as defenses simply don’t respect them in the passing game. Instead, understanding that a run is likely coming, you see defensive ends crash the ball-carrier and not as much success on the ground.
Last weekend, it felt like the Badgers knew they had to be aggressive, especially with the “nothing to lose” mentality. But, the playcalling didn’t show that, with an 80 percent run rate on first down for minimal gains. That constantly set up deep second and third downs, which has not been a good formula for success this year for the Badgers.
I asked Luke Fickell about the lack of success on first downs with their run rate against Ohio State. Here’s what he said:
“What do you do on first down? I think that all those things are things that we continue to look at. It’s not like we don’t evaluate after the game exactly what it is that we did on every down and distance. Do we become predictable? Yes. We expect to get more [than two yards] whether we’re running it at 75 percent of the time on first down.
“But we also knew that there was a plan in place. And keeping ourselves out of third and longs are really important. And no, two yards and then two yards and then two yards is probably not going to get it done, but recognizing we are a little bit better on those third and medium situations, as opposed to putting yourself in the third long situation. So there’s a balance there. No matter what, you’ve got to be a hell of a lot more efficient. Everybody talks about third down, and that’s the most important down [as the] money down. Truth of the matter is, [it’s] first down. First down puts you in the driver’s seat on where you are and what predictability that you have moving forward. And so as much as anything, the focus on trying to be on track on first down is even more important to us than where we are in a lot of different other areas.”
I get what Fickell is trying to say. Wisconsin is looking to avoid being in 2nd & 10s or getting sacked on first down, which puts them even further behind, knowing that they struggle in those situations. But, playing to win is understanding where you might have a situational advantage. And right now, teams don’t respect the Badgers to throw the ball. Wisconsin still needs to win those 1-on-1 matchups on the boundary, but there are more favorable opportunities on earlier downs that the Badgers can take advantage of to at least spark some life in the offense.
Right now, the efficiency on first down runs just isn’t there, making it nearly as bad as an incompletion on a first down throw. And throws on first down don’t have to only be shot plays, though Fickell acknowledged once again they need to take more shots downfield to get defenses to respect them.
The quick game needs to be utilized as it was earlier in the season. Wisconsin has deviated from that a bit, be it the quarterback not getting the ball out in time, or the lack of plays that account for the ball to come out. Once that aspect is built, the Badgers will have more comfort in their passing game, without asking their quarterback to do too much.
Right now, there doesn’t seem to be any trust in Hunter Simmons. Which is understandable, given how the Badgers have played on offense recently. But, if the Badgers are truly adopting a “nothing to lose” mentality and actually are looking to play to win, they need to let it rip and give him those opportunities because that is the main situational advantage they currently have.
Wisconsin’s offensive line has also been very shaky in pass protection. So, putting a backup quarterback behind a leaky offensive line is also probably part of the thinking with the first down runs. But that also goes back to the quick passing game, which we really haven’t seen much since that first drive against Michigan and since Billy Edwards was on the field.
Wisconsin has been one of the worst offenses in the country this season. Negative or inefficient plays on first down play a big role in that, as this group isn’t built to come from behind, be it in a game or even on a drive.
Last week was a big step back with the predictability on first downs. Yes, the Badgers should still be getting more efficiency, even with the tell of a run for the defense. Previous offenses in Wisconsin history regularly were efficient when facing stacked boxes. But, this group right now isn’t capable of doing that, which is why they need to take advantage of situations more, understanding that the cost will be there.
Wisconsin will definitely have three-and-outs because incompletions on first down are also costly for this team. But, they punt at one of the highest rates in college football already. So, they’ve got to create more balance and let it rip at a higher rate on first down, which will help set up the run as it has in previous games this year.
