Before the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 13 game against the Dallas Cowboys, all of our Arrowhead Pride panelists blew it: each one of us picked the Chiefs to win. As a group, we expected a 29-21 Kansas City win. That
prediction carried 22 points of error* from the Chiefs’ 31-28 loss. Our readers were a bit less enthusiastic about Kansas City’s chances. Just over one in five thought Dallas would win its Thanksgiving Day matchup — and most of those correctly believed it would be a close game.
In Week 14, the Chiefs face the Houston Texans on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by 3.5 points.
Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.
Nate Christensen (@natech32)
I’ve done a terrible job picking games this year, so it’ll probably go the opposite way I expect it to go. That being said, I am not picking the Chiefs this week.
I think this is the worst time to get a matchup like the Texans. The Houston defense is very similar to the Broncos’ unit. Both dominate with a four-man pass rush and play tight man coverage on the back end. Kansas City wide receivers are bad agains man coverage — and the team might be without 60% of its offensive line, including both tackles.
The Chiefs’ defense should be fine. The Texans’ offense is improving, but it can still be stopped. I expect Chris Jones to play a monster game inside. That will help limit points.
I could see Kansas City winning a 16-13 slugfest. But with the current status of the offensive line — and a bad matchup for the offense — I think Houston wins.
Texans 20, Chiefs 16
John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)
It’s noteworthy that Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson each have more than 10 sacks on the season. So yes… they will be bad matchups against the Chiefs’ tackles. But to me, that simply means Kansas City will have no choice but to downshift into the running game and quick passes. That’s fine by me. If the Chiefs had been doing that more often, I believe they’d have a much better record. So I see this as a low-scoring game — Steve Spagnuolo’s unit isn’t anything to sneeze at, either — but one that Kansas City can win at home.
Chiefs 16, Texans 13
Maurice Elston (@MrMauriceElston)
Both teams arrive with good defenses, though Houston’s front seven has been the more dominant unit to this point. Kansas City has played strong early-down defense but continues to struggle on third-and-long — and in late-game stop situations. The Texans’ offense has been inconsistent, so if the Chiefs can close out those long-yardage situations, they should create the extra possessions their offense needs.
Offensively, the edge still tilts slightly toward Kansas City. Injuries along the offensive line — potentially both tackles and guard Trey Smith — would likely shift the approach toward a quicker passing rhythm and a steadier run mix. When quarterback Patrick Mahomes is forced into the quick game, the offense often operates with more efficiency and fewer negative plays. A streamlined call sheet that emphasizes rhythm throws and early-down balance should keep the Chiefs on schedule.
Given the playoff implications, Kansas City enters with minimal margin. The first team to reach the low-20s likely controls the final stretch, and the Chiefs hold the slight offensive advantage needed to get there.
Chiefs 24, Texans 17
Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)
On paper, the Texans should win this game. The Chiefs will be without three of their starters on the offensive line.
It’s been well documented how good this Texans defense is — especially upfront with their elite edges. This should force the Chiefs to play the quick game — and they have the receivers to do it.
This feels like a game tailor-made for wide receiver Rashee Rice, who get open quickly in the middle of the field. On the other side, Kansas City will have to lean on Arrowhead to help on third downs. That will be key.
Somehow, some way… I think the Chiefs find a way to win.
Chiefs 23, Texans 20
Caleb James (@CJScoobs)
This game will be a rock fight. The Texans’ offense has not been good this season — and even though the Chiefs’ defense has sometimes struggled to get off the field, it should be able to handle what Houston throws at it.
On offense, the Chiefs will have to play smart — especially with injury issues up front. The Texans’ pair of stud pass rushers will reduce the time available to pass — and having as many as three backup offensive linemen in the game will make things even more tricky. I could see the offense trying to run behind Humphrey and Suamataia, but the Texans are still one of the best run-stuffing units in the league.
This game is do-or-die, so I do expect defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit to play with its hair on fire and keep the game close. So it will probably come down to what Ka’imi Fairbairn or Harrison Butker can do.
Chiefs 17, Texans 14
Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)
The Chiefs have a tough road ahead of them: they have to win out to make the playoffs. In this game, they have to do it without as many as three of their starting offensive linemen — while facing a Houston defense that recently sacked the Buffalo Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen eight times.
That doesn’t bode well for a Kansas City team that wants to pass. So the Chiefs will probably once again lean on their running game to grind the ball down the field.
On the defensive side of the ball, I don’t worry too much about Kansas City’s ability to stop Houston. The Texans’ offense doesn’t strike fear into anyone’s heart.
To win this game, the Chiefs need to get to 20 points. They must protect the football at all costs. Possessions are going to come at a premium.
Chiefs 20, Texans 16
Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)
I have been wavering on this one. On one hand, the prospect of the Chiefs — with backups probably manning both tackle spots — facing the Texans’ pass rush with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter is terrifying. On the other hand, the obvious run-heavy game plan should be easier with underrated Texans defensive tackle Tim Settle out for the season. I think Kansas City will find some success with runs and short passes to mitigate pressure from the edge.
The Chiefs’ defense has underwhelmed during the season’s second half, but Houston’s offense is prone to inconsistency of its own. On a cold night in Kansas City, points may be at a premium — and the Texans will also be under intense pressure to rise to the moment.
I have doubts about the Chiefs succeeding in their late playoff push. I do believe they have one more big moment left in them to push that decision to another day. I see a close and sloppy game, but I think Kansas City can win at home.
Chiefs 17, Texans 13
Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)
For the last few weeks, the Chiefs have had their backs against the wall. They responded against the Indianapolis Colts, but have let other opportunities slip through their fingers.
Sure… officiating has been terrible, but the defense couldn’t get off the field on third down, either. Still, what seems to really derail these games is when Kansas City’s playmakers can’t quite bring in a pass — or a big play is wiped out by a penalty.
For the Chiefs to save their season, they’ll need tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Rashee Rice to make plays. While I expect Mahomes to deliver under pressure, I worry that this is a season where he won’t get enough help to make a run. It’s going to take a full team effort to keep hope alive. That means the defense will have to make plays, too — with sacks and turnovers instead of pressures and near-picks.
I still believe in this team, but it will need an A-plus game plan — and guys not named Patrick coming through. Their Chiefs’ backs might now be nailed to the wall. Can they find it within themselves to break loose?
Chiefs 24, Texans 21
With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to win 20-17.
What do you think?
2025 Standings
| TW | LW | Staffer | W | L | Pct | Err |
| 1 | 1 | Maurice Elston | 7 | 5 | 0.5833 | 22.0 |
| 2 | 2 | Caleb James | 6 | 6 | 0.5000 | 22.8 |
| 3 | 3 | Mark Gunnels | 6 | 6 | 0.5000 | 24.0 |
| 4 | 4 | Jared Sapp | 6 | 6 | 0.5000 | 24.8 |
| 5 | 5 | Matt Stagner | 6 | 6 | 0.5000 | 29.2 |
| 6 | 6 | Rocky Magaña | 5 | 7 | 0.4167 | 21.7 |
| 7 | 7 | Nate Christensen | 5 | 7 | 0.4167 | 22.5 |
| 8 | 8 | John Dixon | 5 | 7 | 0.4167 | 25.7 |
In Week 13, Maurice Elston’s call for a 28-24 Kansas City win was the least wrong on our panel. It carried 14 points of error. Nate Christensen was right behind. His prediction for 30-24 Chiefs win missed by 18 total points.
*To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team score and away team score are added together. For example, a prediction calls for a 17-10 Chiefs win. They end up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Kansas City score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there were 28 points of error in the prediction: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores missed by 7.
