Staff Predictions: No. 18 Florida State Seminoles welcome No. 3 Miami (FL) Hurricanes

The 18th-ranked Florida State Seminoles return home to a sold-out Doak Campbell Stadium for one of college football’s most storied rivalries against the 3rd-ranked Miami (FL) Hurricanes. The primetime

nationally televised matchup will kick off at 7:30 p.m. and be televised on ABC.

Florida State (3-1, 0-1 ACC) trails 33-36 in the all-time rivalry series against the Canes; however, the Noles have won three of the last four meetings, the last 2 games played at Doak, and hold a 13-8 advantage since Miami joined the ACC (All Canes Conference) at the beginning of the 2004 season. Miami (4-0, 0-0 ACC) won last season’s matchup, 36-14, during FSU’s lost 2024 season. It is looking to earn its third-ranked win of 2025, and is one of only three FBS teams to not have trailed at any point so far this season.

For the first time since 2013, both teams are ranked in the top 20 entering the matchup, with both programs firmly in the College Football Playoff hunt. The winner of this game will have the inside track to the ACC Championship Game and a possible CFP berth, although winning the ACC Championship no longer guarantees an automatic bid to the college playoffs, as recent history has proven.

The last time FSU and UM played as ranked opponents was in 2016, when Miami was ranked 10th and the Noles were ranked 21st. That game, also known as The Block at the Rock, ranked 2nd in our recent countdown of the 6 most memorable FSU upset wins over Miami.

Miami’s defense has been the key to the Canes’ 4-0 start this season. Nationally, UM ranks #9 in scoring defense, 13th in total defense, tied at 8th in rushing defense, and 25th in passing yards allowed. The Canes have allowed just 33 plays of 10 or more yards this season, tied for the ninth-fewest in all of FBS. Defensive ends Rueben Bain, Jr., and Akheem Mesidor are possibly the top DE tandem in the FBS so far this season.

In their last game against the Gators, UM’s defense held Florida’s offense to 141 yards—its fewest since 1999, held UF to under 10 points for the first time since 2022, did not allow a 3rd-down conversion (0-for-13), and only allowed QB DJ Lagway 61 yards on 12-for-23 passing.

Florida State will counter with the nation’s #1 ranked total offense, averaging 600 yards per game, #1 in scoring offense with 53 PPG, 2nd in rushing offense at 336 YPG, 6th in third-down conversion percentage; but 41st in passing offense despite FSU QB Tommy Castellanos leading the nation in yards per completion (18.84) and yards per attempt (12.11).

On offense, Miami transfer quarterback Carson Beck’s career 28-3 (.903) record as a starting FBS QB is the best among active players with a minimum of 5 starts. On the year, Beck has completed 82 of 112 attempts (73.2%), for 972 yards (8.7 avg), with 7 TDs and 3 INTs. His favorite targets are Malachi Toney (22 recs) and CJ Daniels with 3 touchdowns. Running back Mark Fletcher leads the team in rushing with a 5.9-yard average and 5 touchdowns, with CharMar Brown getting most of the rest of the carries.

FSU’s defense, after struggling last week against Virginia, is ranked 28th in total defense (296), 34th in rushing defense (111), and 40th in passing yards allowed (184).

The 2013 season was the last time FSU beat an AP Top-3 opponent—two times that season in fact, against No. 2 Auburn in the BCS National Championship Game and by beating No. 3 Clemson on the road. FSU did beat No. 8 Alabama, 31-17, to open the 2025 season.

According to FanDuel, FSU is a 4.5-point underdog, with the over/under set at 54.5 points.

As we await the kickoff, enjoy highlights from Miami’s last visit to Doak.

Read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown.
Then look over and digest all the FREE PRE-GAME CONTENT we’ve posted leading up to this game.
We would love to hear your thoughts about how you feel about this game and your final score prediction in the comments.

Matt Minnick (season record: 2-2; 2-2 ATS)

Well last week sure did suck. At halftime I was thinking, “exactly according to my predicted script! Now we just need to score first, take control, and pull away.” Womp womp.

The good news is, Carson Beck, while a solid-ish pro prospect, is not the dual threat challenge that Chandler Morris is, nor is he quite as consistent with his intermediate accuracy. Simply put, Beck is not as good of a college QB as Morris. The bad news is, Miami will likely feature a better OL than UVA and they also have the single best player in the game, Reuben Bain, Jr.

I’m confident Gus will scheme up some juicy stuff to mitigate the impact of Bain. I’m less confident FSU’s linebackers and interior DL will suddenly get markedly better in 6 days. But in sports we see time and time again where people overreact to performances on a week to week, game to game basis. Teams at every level struggle to string together high level performances while also displaying an uncanny ability to bounce back from disaster. I’m taking FSU to look more like the team that played Bama than UVA.

Florida State 31, Miami 24

Jordan Silversmith (season record: 2-2)

A week after the soft factors went against Florida State’s favor, there are a few that will benefit the Seminoles on Saturday. For starters, the Hurricanes are playing their first game on the road this season, and that clearly hampered Mike Norvell’s team a week ago. The head coach also does an excellent job preparing and pushing the right buttons for his squad when it comes to rivalry games (sans 2024).

The Noles seem to relish the underdog spirit and will have the first primetime crowd of the year rocking in their corner. But like Matt wrote earlier, there is one factor that I do not see Florida State overcoming: Miami’s run game. The Hurricanes have dominated the line of scrimmage while taking the air out of the ball and life out of their opponents with a powerful offensive line and a dominant ground game to start the season.

While I also did not see FSU succeeding against stopping the Alabama rush, the Tide were without their top running back, not coming off a bye with everyone healthy like Miami. The game stays close early, but a couple of back-breaking drives from the Canes hand FSU their second-straight loss.

Miami 28, FSU 21

NoleThruandThru (season record: 2—2)

I’m really tempted to take FSU. Yes, Miami is the smart bet. It has the advantage on both lines. Yes, FSU’s lack of pass rush is very concerning. Virginia also a solid blueprint on how to beat FSU… but it’s a blueprint that requires FSU to make several self-inflicted errors and get behind early. FSU easily played its worst game and still managed to take things into OT.

I’m not terribly impressed with Carson Beck, but Miami’s OV has done a nice job creating an attack that doesn’t require much of him aside from being accurate in the short-mid game. FSU’s offense is still potent, even with self-inflicted mistakes and a less-than-100% Castellanos. The one thing that continues to baffle and anger me is FSU’s complete lack of a punt return threat, or even just competence. What a huge difference that can make in a game like this (or UVA).

I’ve gone back and forth on this for a couple days. My head says Miami by 14-17. But I keep coming back to the one thing we’ve seen from this team consistently, which is resiliency. It’s FSU-Miami. Head be damned. The heart says:

FSU 31, Miami 29

Jacob Smith (season record: 2-1)

This will either be the funniest win or the most brutal loss of the season. I can already see it from a mile away. Florida State hadn’t played Virginia since 2019, and while I’m not saying that’s why they lost, that was the definition of a trap game. This is not. I simply believe that Miami will somehow find a way to get the victory over us.

The only saving grace preventing this from going into 2023 Orange Bowl territory is that it is in Doak Campbell Stadium. I expect hilarity of the highest order, but not an FSU win. Sorry, ya’ll.

Miami Tropical Storms 28, FSU 24

Jon Marchant (season record: 2-2)

So despite largely outplaying Virginia the Noles made all the mistakes they couldn’t make and at the worst field positions for maximum damage.

To make matters worse, the game seemed poorly managed and the defense was a huge disappointment. They got run over, even after staff should have been alerted to Morris’ injury and the fact he couldn’t throw for a short time.

That failure is especially concerning given Miami’s very good offensive line, especially their likely All American right guard. Carson Beck doesn’t scare me as much as their running game, as his velocity has clearly not recovered from UCL surgery last offseason. But if he has forever to throw, it won’t matter.

Florida State’s offense is good. Like, really good. They are both efficient and explosive. But they have to avoid the mistakes. And what scares me there is Miami’s pass rush duo of Bain and Mesidor (Bain especially).

I have no idea how this game is going to go. It is strength against strength. Bain is a game wrecker but I expect Gus to use the read game to take him out as much as possible and also to try and get Miami’s defense to over pursue. Miami’s offense doesn’t impress me but FSUs defense is on shaky ground at the moment. I have no idea what to expect from them.

I think FSU can not only win this game, but do so easily. However, I would agree that Miami is more likely to win it. I do think it’s critically important to note that FSU is more than capable of losing tomorrow and then running the table the rest of the way. Because of the loss to UVA, it won’t be good enough to make the ACC title game due to some teams’ weak schedules, and therefore playoffs are also off the table, but it’s still a good season.

Miami 23, FSU 20

Curt Weiler (season record: 2-2)

Struggling to figure out what to make of this game. The FSU team I saw play Alabama can hang with Miami. The team (the defense, really) that I saw vs. Virginia would make that a much tougher task.

In the end, I think FSU hangs around. Miami hasn’t faced an offense this good yet and hasn’t played a road game. Will the Seminoles deliver the moment? I’m choosing to believe in that Doak magic.

FSU 31, Miami 28

Tim Scribble (season record: 2—2)

After the Virginia game I’m back in “prove it” mode. Prove that this defense can get pressure on Beck. Prove that they can stop the run. I have confidence in the offense but Miami’s defensive line is stout. I’m just not sure FSU has the ability to consistently stop Miami.

Miami 35, FSU 28

Frank DaNolé (season record: 3-1)

History has proven time and time again that stats and rankings mean little once the ball gets kicked off in this rivalry game.

Miami’s defense is ranked higher, has played and beaten better competition than FSU has, and has an outstanding defensive line. Florida State’s offense is the fastest Miami has faced, and Gus’ Bus has been virtually unstoppable, except when they stopped themselves.

Miami’s run game is the strength of its offense. Beck is an average passing QB and is not a run threat. Hopefully, FSU DC Tony White’s focus, who some believe was on the UCLA job leading up to last week’s loss, has been on getting his squad to perform at the same level they performed at in the opener against Alabama. If that happens, Miami will have difficulty matching FSU’s explosiveness on offense.

The game will probably be close, as always, however I think it will be a higher scoring game than some others believe. Since we are throwing out rankings, YTD stats, and series won/loss records, it will come down to the team that wants it more, plays with more heart than their opponent, and give 112% effort every down on both sides of the ball. That team will be the FSU Seminoles.

FSU Seminoles 45, FMFFM 31

Perry Kostidakis (season record: 2-2, 3-1 ATS)

I’ve been going back and forth on this game ever since FSU’s week one upset of Alabama. I had this chalked up as a guaranteed loss in the preseason, moved to a one-score loss in the aftermath of the season-opener and then started feeling myself more and more on the side of “…..could FSU actually win this?”

The “actually” in the last sentence is a little unfair to FSU, since this wouldn’t be a seismic-level upset by most standards. The Hurricanes are just 4.5-point favorites, the moneyline odds indicating Vegas hedging in a way that you wouldn’t usually see in a No. 3 vs. No. 18 matchup.

Really, what makes it difficult to see a path to an FSU victory is that on the field, the Hurricanes not only just matchup well — they exceed the Seminoles in a few key areas (the trenches, especially). While the always-present “Mario Cristobal can’t coach” factor is in play, especially this season where just a few plays would have the Hurricanes sitting at 1-2, I’d agrue this year’s Miami team is quite clearly the best fielded in Coral Gables since the 2017 season. The Hurricanes’ offense lacks an explosive element, as Carson Beck enters into his final Game Manager Form, but their running offense is still one of the country’s best. Miami’s main weakness as a team in recent years has been its defense, but through three games, it has graded out as PFF’s No. 3 unit. You can chalk that up to games vs. Bethune-Cookman and Florida, but it managed to hold Notre Dame to just 24 points before the Irish reeled off a 40-point game and back-to-back 56-point performances.

FSU is 11-15 all-time vs. Miami teams ranked higher at the time of kickoff, with 2016 and 2005 being the only two instances in the past 20 years.

Conversely, Miami has beat just one FSU team with a winning record in the past 15 years, three in the past 20.

One thing has to give, and the deciding factor for me is coaching — Mike Norvell has shown an ability to (outside of 2024) have his team ready to go for high-profile matchups and I have witnessed Mario Cristobal pull a David Blaine and transform a guaranteed win into a hilarious loss on far too many occasions.

FSU 31, Miami 26