The intrigue over what the New York Giants will do with the No. 5 draft pick this year is the most I’ve seen in several years. Last year, for example, it was pretty well known by the time of the draft that Cam Ward and Travis Hunter were going 1-2, and Abdul Carter was the slam dunk choice at No. 3. There was a bit more intrigue – in Giants fans’ minds, anyway – the year before, but in our hearts we knew that Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye were going to be off the board before the Giants picked,
and the only real intrigue was which of the top three wide receivers would be available (even though admittedly there were Joe Alt fans out there, and even a few devotees of the other three first round quarterbacks).
This year’s draft is different. Everyone will be shocked if Fernando Mendoza is not the No. 1 pick – not because he is a generational talent (which he may or may not turn out to be), but just because he is so clearly QB1 and maybe QB-only in this draft pool and Las Vegas needs a quarterback. After that, though, you can toss the names of about a dozen prospects into a hat and pick them out at random, and you’ll have as good a chance of getting the order correct as any draft expert.
What the Giants and general manager John Harbaugh – oh, excuse me, Joe Schoen is still the titular GM – will do with the No. 5 pick is anyone’s guess at this point. The Giants are continuing their unmatched tradition of having needs at many positions this year. Some of them will be filled in the next few weeks with free agent signings, so that will narrow the needs somewhat. Possible losses of their own free agents, though, especially Jermaine Eluemunor and Wan’Dale Robinson, will open new holes, and another may occur if Kayvon Thibodeaux is traded. Finally, regardless of what the Giants do pre-draft, what the three teams besides Las Vegas ahead of them will do is anyone’s guess.
Significant attention has been paid in recent weeks to off-ball linebacker and safety, two areas which the football cognoscenti have anointed as being of “low positional value.” In practice that has meant that a GM doesn’t dare use a top 10 pick on either position, much less a top 5 pick. Here are the positions GMs have used top 5 picks on in the past five and 10 years, along with the details for each year:
No linebackers or safeties have been drafted in the top five in past five years, and only one in the past 10 years. That one linebacker is a cautionary tale: Devin White was taken No. 5 by Tampa Bay in 2019, just before the Giants drafted Daniel Jones (another cautionary tale for different reasons, but that’s another story). The Bucs looked prescient in drafting White, who took the NFL by storm his first couple of years being a demon as a pass-rusher. That obscured the fact, though, that he was awful in run defense and pass coverage and that their other linebacker, Lavonte David, was doing all the dirty work that LBs are actually paid to do. Tampa Bay had seen enough after five seasons and let him walk.
A safety has not been taken in the top 5 since 2010, when Eric Berry was drafted No. 5 by Kansas City. Berry became a great player for the Chiefs, but it was interrupted multiple times by serious injuries, and he only wound up playing five complete seasons in a nine-year career. Prior to that, the last safety taken in the top 5 was Sean Taylor by Washington. Taylor also became a great player but was tragically murdered in a home burglary in the middle of his fourth NFL season.
A salient point, though, is that the recent history of the NFL Draft coincides with the rise of the Tom Brady-era Patriots, who took advantage of NFL rules changes that made defending the pass more challenging to revolutionize NFL offense. For most of the past two decades the NFL has increasingly become a pass-first league, and thus in addition to QBs, wide receivers and good pass-blocking offensive tackles, along with the edge defenders and cornerbacks who try to defend them, have been the most highly valued currency. That shows up in the charts above in several ways:
- 23 of 25 top 5 picks in the past 5 years have been QBs, edge defenders, WRs, CBs, and OTs (the 0.5 increments in the chart are for Travis Hunter).
- 43 of 50 top 5 picks in the past 10 years have been at these same positions
- After 3 running backs were drafted in the top 5 in 2016-2018, none have been drafted top 5 since Saquon Barkley.
That being said, defenses have adjusted, and running the ball has reclaimed its position somewhat as an important part of NFL offenses. The changes are subtle but seem to be real, per Pro Football Reference:
Other than 2017, league average passing yards per game have decreased by 20-30 yards per game from their highs of the previous decade while rushing yards have increased but more modestly. Total offensive yards are clearly down from their highs of the past decade. In other words, defense is once again becoming a thing in the NFL.
The other part of this is that John Harbaugh’s Ravens teams have not operated like most other NFL teams. Harbaugh is a “CEO-type” head coach rather than a defensive or offensive guru, and the Ravens have had one of the strongest personnel evaluation groups in the league, so it’s not clear exactly how much sway he had over who the Ravens drafted. In some fashion, though, the Ravens must have reflected his vision. If that showed up in the Ravens’ draft priorities, you see from the first chart above that the Ravens’ priorities have differed from those of the league as a whole.
We don’t have any data on how the Ravens’ used top 5 picks in the Harbaugh era – because they never drafted in the top 5 during his entire tenure, and only once did they even draft in the top 10 (they took OT Ronnie Stanley at No. 6 in 2016). The Giants over the same time period have had a top 5 pick four times and a top 10 pick eight times. The final column of the first chart instead shows how Baltimore used their first round picks, wherever they were, during the Harbaugh era. Some points worth noting:
- The Ravens only drafted 2 QBs in Round 1 the whole time and hit on both (Joe Flacco, Lamar Jackson)
- They never drafted an edge defender in Round 1 in all his years there. Sorry, Rueben Bain and David Bailey fans. Likewise, Jeremiyah Love fans may be out of luck – the Ravens never went RB in Round 1.
- They did go wide receiver four times, cornerback three times, and offensive tackle twice (including the year they picked No. 6), so players like Carnell Tate, Mansoor Delane, and Spencer Fano can’t be ruled out, though that wouldn’t be news since those are all considered high-value positions in today’s NFL.
- Of greater interest is that the Ravens drafted safeties three times and linebackers twice in Round 1 during Harbaugh’s tenure. Kyle Hamilton, taken No. 14 in 2022, is the most well known of the safeties, but just last year the Ravens used No. 27 on S Malaki Starks. At LB C.J. Mosley, taken No. 17 in 2014, was a great pick, while Patrick Queen, No. 28 in 2020, was not. Only two other NFL teams drafted safeties in Rd. 1 the past five years, both at the very bottom of the round, and only 6 drafted LBs, again late in the round.
Combine this history with the fact that this is not considered one of the most elite pool of draft-eligible players in recent years, and the bottom line is that we shouldn’t be surprised if the Giants break recent precedent and take either Sonny Styles (who wowed at the Combine) or Caleb Downs at No. 5 next month. The defenses Harbaugh has put on the field have valued those positions more, and used them more aggressively in defensive schemes, than many other teams have. For example, in 2025, the Ravens had safeties rush the passer 100 times and linebackers do so 190 times, per Pro Football Focus, while Giants’ safeties rushed only 55 times and their linebackers only 97 times. Or maybe Arvell Reese, who did a bit of everything (119 pass rush snaps, 251 coverage snaps, 281 run defense snaps; 286 snaps in the box, 327 on the defensive line) will be the pick. Some of the choice will be made for the Giants by whom the other three teams above them in the draft order pick, but it shouldn’t be a surprise if the Giants do break recent precedent and go linebacker or safety at No. 5.
