Bad TV deals, west coast additions, stupid tie-breaker rules, and unmet expectations have put the ACC in the position they’re in. That position is potentially being left out of the 2025-2026 College Football
Playoff. Had UVA knocked off Duke in the ACC Championship Game the Hoos would probably have snuck in as the final team in the 12-team format. But the Blue Devils upset the Cavaliers and now the Miami Hurricanes play wait and see with the committee at noon. Congrats to Manny Diaz who won the ACC Championship at Duke before Mario Cristobal could at Miami- but at what cost to the ACC?
In 2004 we would’ve thought the ACC was at a turning point to compete with the big boys. Miami was fresh off of an 11-2 season and an Orange Bowl win over rival and ACC member Florida State. Virginia Tech, the program that came along for the ride with UM, had three double-digit winning seasons over the previous five years. The moves of VT and UM to the ACC marked the beginning of the end for The Big East. The Hokies and ‘Canes had won the 2001 BCS National Championship, and played for the title in 1999 (VT) and 2002 (Miami).
Boston College came a year later (2005) and the conference swelled to 12 teams prior to the departure of Maryland in 2014. The conference looked like it was on the rise with FSU, Miami, Va. Tech and Clemson as football ‘powers’ but something strange happened. The entire conference was built on an annual ACC Championship Game of FSU and Miami, a rematch every season, and it never happened. From 2004-2025 Miami made one single ACC Championship Game, the 2017 beatdown at the hands of Clemson.
The addition of Boston College was meaningless, Miami was on the decline at the end of the Larry Coker Era, FSU had yet to hire Jimbo Fisher, and Dabo Swinney wasn’t Dabo just yet. And then the TV deal with ESPN happened in 2010 for the 2011 season. A deal that was clearly short-sighted while being long-term at 12 years for around $150 million per year for the conference. It was quite a blunder in an era of serious blunders like Blockbuster Video turning down the chance to purchase Netflix for $50M in 2000, or anyone giving True Detective Season 2 the green light.
When the ACC deal was securing $12M per team in 2011, by 2015 the SEC deal was landing their teams $31M per season. Today the SEC teams are pulling in over $50M per season from their TV deal with ESPN while the ACC teams are only pulling in $40M. The Big Ten teams are raking in over $60M per year on TV alone. If you are wondering why the CFB Playoff Champions have been back-to-back Big Ten schools, just reference the checkbooks.
And then the ACC decided to add SMU, Cal and Stanford into the mix. While SMU was clearly a solid choice being in Dallas, having a huge financial backing, and fitting the academic mold I’m not sure what Cal and Stanford brought or bring to the ACC. Yes they’re both strong academic institutions but the ACC didn’t need academic help.
All this expansion has done is make the conference look even worse than it already did on the football field. For reference, Cal is 85th in SP+ and Stanford is 112th. Cal’s former QB is now playing for no.1 Indiana, yes, Indiana. While adding Miami and VT made sense, as did Louisville and SMU, the additions of the California teams still remains a mystery.
And now this bloated, nonsensical conference we call the ACC has to wait for the noon “Selection Sunday” show to see if the Miami Hurricanes can backdoor their way into the CFB Playoff. The committee has to decide between 12-1 Sun Belt Champs James Madison, and 10-2 teams in Notre Dame and Miami. Playing bottom feeders every year in Cal and Stanford has made the conference look worse.
In the pre-conference championship weekend SP+, Miami is 9th while SMU is 27th. UVA is 28th, Louisville is 30th, and Clemson is 32nd. Expected powers like FSU and VT are 43rd and 106th, respectively. Meanwhile ACC Champ Duke is 53rd, ranked one spot below 2-10 Arkansas.
Again, the ACC did this to themselves with a goofy tie-breaker that could’ve given Miami a playoff leg up had the conference used the CFBPO committee rankings which would have benefitted the ACC greatly. Instead, the ACC champ is unranked Duke at 8-5.
The ACC has one top-25 SP+ team in Miami. Compare that to the Big Ten which has seven top-25 SP+ teams, the SEC which has nine, the Big 12 which has four, and the G6 which has three and then of course there’s Notre Dame at no.5 in the SP+ rankings. Miami did play and beat ND in Week One to add to their strength of schedule, as well as 23rd ranked USF. A win over rival Florida is worthless as they’re 63rd in SP+.
The ACC has done this to themselves. The TV deal, the two California teams, the tie-breaker rules and the decline of FSU and Clemson has hurt the conference. The ACC has added James Franklin, a top-tier coach who will now command the Hokies in Blacksburg, but the conference will still be an also-ran if the G6 produces more top-25 teams than the ACC. And now the ’Canes wait on the committee rather than having handled business against Louisville and/or SMU during the regular season.
