Howdy everyone, as Chris said last week, welcome to draft/prospect season. As we get deeper into these profiles, you will see there really seems to be no consensus beyond the top 2 (and even that is now being debated after the lottery). What I do know is there are five or six defenseman likely to get taken top 10, leaving the Devils in line to nab one of the top five or seven best forwards available. I am usually a “best player available” advocate, but yet another mess xGMTF left us with was a barren
forward prospect pipeline by virtue of his top-10 drafting.
Today, we’re going to look at Tynan Lawrence, two-way center from Boston University via New Brunswick. Lawrence is a 6’1” 185 center with a late (August) birthday making him one of the youngest players in the draft. According to his Elite Prospects page, he was on a relatively typical path from minor hockey to prep powerhouse Shattuck St. Mary’s to the USHL. Where things deviated for him was last season where he made the decision to leave Muskegon mid-season to go to BU. That decision was largely driven by his developmental needs and BUs need for better offensive play driving.
Rankings
Not only has his last year been a bit of a whirlwind, his draft rankings have seen him all over the map – as high as #1 early in the season to as low as #17. As you will see above, his production at BU was a little underwhelming with only 7 points in 18 games. However, don’t let that fool you – it can be attributed to his age, mid-season adjustment, and BUs flawed roster. The median ranking for him lands him at #7 and #4 among North American skaters. Below is where the “draft experts” have him ranked via his EP page:
- #4 by Smaht Scouting
- #4 by Dobber Prospects
- #4 by THN (Ferrari)
- #6 by TSN (Peters)
- #7 by NHL Central Scouting (North American Skaters)
- #9 by Sportsnet (Cosentino)
- #10 by Sportsnet (Bukala)
- #12 by McKeen’s Hockey
- #14 by Elite Prospects
- #17 by TSN (Button)
But what did some of these guys say about Lawrence? This was from SpokedZ at Smaht Scouting in their mid-season rankings:
He’s an excellent skater with a relentless motor who pushes pace and brings endless energy shift-in-shift-out. He’s a meticulous two-way center with a strong hockey IQ and tremendous details. When he’s on his game and playing with confidence, he’s constantly making plays in motion off the rush and inside the offensive zone.
And a little down the rankings, this is from Jason Bukala at Sportsnet in his most recent rankings (yesterday):
It took Lawrence time to find his offence at BU, but he ended with two goals and five assists in 18 games. At the U18s, he contributed two goals and four assists in six games. I appreciate how fast Lawrence is playing the game and the fact he tracked the entire 200 feet at the college level when he was struggling to find offence.
And this is from James Connelly at Dobber Prospects in their December rankings. Will he still be ranked four by them after his stint at BU?
Lawrence turns stout defensive play into transition offense in an instant. His speed is almost unparalleled in the USHL and will help him translate to the NHL smoothly one day. He works well off his teammates, which is quite impressive. Some players who have such a high skill gap compared to their teammates/competition can become too possessive of the puck and individualistic, but not Lawrence.
In his preliminary review, Ryan Ma at Dobber Prospects did note that while he is very fast, Lawrence is not the best puckhandler but is intelligent in his use of space in transition.
Let’s Go to the Videotape
From a raw skills perspective, Lawrence isn’t going to wow people with dangles or explosive speed. But that isn’t necessarily a bad thing, because he has a very well rounded game for a 17 year old. Every profile I’ve read, and from his highlights below you will see a smart, 2-way responsible center. His primary strengths lie in his intelligence and compete level and is relentless on backchecks. He is also dangerous in transition, uses his teammates well and has good speed. He doesn’t have a lot of wasted activity in his game, although I wouldn’t call him a simple North-South type of player because he does show a level of creativity East-West.
Admittedly, I had soured on Lawrence based on his raw production, but after watching a lot of film on him, you can see the details in his game are remarkable for someone as young as him. One niche skill that I noticed over and over was his backtracking and stick lifting, creating turnovers. Like a Ninja laying in wait for the right moment, and call me crazy, but we could use a little bit of that type of dog on the Devils.
What is also encouraging are his areas to improve are very coachable or can be developed as he ages. His commitment to the defensive side of the puck is typically the hardest things to teach a young player, and often the major hole seen in high end prospects.
First, while a good skater with decent speed, he does lack that first-step explosiveness. His skating mechanics are very good, so that can come with some training and coaching. Second, even though he is great defensively, that is largely due to his intelligence positionally and with his stick – he is not going to lay a big hit and does not seek out contact, but will engage (and win) 50/50 pucks. One of the reasons players like the NCAA development path is it allows for significant time in the weight room and training. Third, he sometimes tries to do too much – we will see if that continues or he gets a better understanding of the time and space he has at the NCAA level.
If you would like to see some shift-by-shift videos of Lawrence, you can see here for his first game with Boston. Below, there’s a later game after he got his feet wet.
My Thoughts
I don’t see the make/trade the pick debate as black and white and will likely be a more fluid situation in reality. If a big swing for a top 6 wing can be made I’m all for it, but I don’t think we should trade it just to trade it if nothing of value is there. And of value I mean Thomas, Tkachuk, Quinn, Matthews, Robertson. The tier below (McCann, Kyrou) I think can be finagled with a package that does not include this pick. I also agree with Chris that our prospect pool is sad, depressing, disgusting… and we need to build that back up, particularly at the forward position. I can see him sliding into the 3C role or an additional C/W slot in the top 6 in two years.
This is going to be an interesting draft, and with the amount of defenseman and likely run on them, I can see Lawrence sliding to 12 for the Devils. He is primed for a big sophomore campaign at BU, and if a trade doesn’t materialize he is one of a few players we should absolutely be targeting. One of his comps per Byron Bader’s NHLe model was Matt Boldy, and I would sprint to the podium to get that type of player. Oh, and Matt Boldy was also selected 12th.
I will leave you with this quote about great play he made against Vermont this past season to put the Terriers up 2-1 in the 3rd period:
“He’s on pucks, he’s got a good stick (and) when he’s moving his feet, he’s hard to handle. I thought that was the type of play he’s going to make — create a turnover and make a nice pass to the slot.” – Jay Pandolfo, Boston Terriers head coach
What do you think gang? How do we feel about Tynan Lawrence? I think I talked myself into him.
