Over the years we have seen a few pitchers who struggled in the MLB reinvent themselves in the KBO. A couple recent examples are Merrill Kelly and Erick Fedde. This offseason, there is a former big league pitcher who put up record setting numbers in Korea and his name is Cody Ponce.
If you have not heard of that name before, I do not blame you. In 2020 and 2021, Ponce made 20 appearances for the Pirates, including 5 starts. He was not very good in those outings. It seemed like he would be a player
who would just be forgotten about. However, he has remade his arsenal and looks like a new pitcher in Korea.
Ponce set the KBO record for strikeouts in a season, fanning 252 hitters in 180.1 innings. He also went 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA. Ponce was by far the best pitcher in Korea. While the competition is not elite, he overwhelmed the guys he faced.
It is not just the results that stand out to me though. His stuff is also much better these days. Ponce is throwing harder and has much better secondary stuff. He is not just a guy bullying inferior opposition while doing the same things he did before. This is a whole new pitcher.
There have been a couple main changes. The first one is that he is throwing harder. In the MLB, his fastball averaged around 93 MPH. Now, he is sitting at 95. Those two extra ticks make a big difference. However, his biggest change has been the addition of a kick changeup. The kick change is a unique take on the changeup. It is mostly a normal changeup, but the middle finger is spiked on the ball like a knuckleball.
The kick change gives the pitch even more movement than a normal changeup. It also is easier to throw for pitchers who are natural supinators. A normal changeup requires pronation of the wrist, a movement that does not come naturally to a lot of guys. With a kick change, you do not need to pronate. Here is a story that does a good job explaining all of the intricacies.
Back to Ponce, he has mastered that kick change and has made it a real weapon for him. The increase in velocity, along with this new pitch have made Ponce an exciting free agent target. At 6’6 255 pounds, he has always had the size to be a workhorse, but now he has the stuff.
The Nats should be all over this. Ponce has a chance to be a mid-rotation arm and he will not be expensive. Expect the contract to be a bit more than the 2-year $15 million that Fedde got. Maybe something along the lines of 2-20.
Fangraphs actually has Ponce listed as their 40th ranked free agent, ahead of established big league starters like Zack Littell and Tyler Mahle. I agree with that assessment. So much of pitching these days is about stuff. If you have the stuff, as well as command, which Ponce has always had, you can be a good pitcher.
Mediocre free agent pitchers have been getting heavily overpaid in the market over the last couple years. Guys like Frankie Montas, a washed up Charlie Morton and an unproven Tomoyuki Sugana have commanded at least $15 million a year. With that in mind, Ponce has a chance to be a real bargain.
Sure, that comes with risk. He could come back to the US and just not be able to cope with the better hitting. However, any pitcher that does not cost a fortune in the free agent market has risk. I think this is a risk worth taking for Paul Toboni, who I am sure is looking to be creative this offseason.
