HAWAII @ AIR FORCE
RWP: Rainbow Warrior Perspective
Location: Honolulu, Oahu (Clarence T.C. Ching Complex)
Date/Time: Saturday, September 27th at 10:00 a.m. (Hawaii Time)
Television: FS1
Streaming: You’ll need a TV log-in
Radio:
ESPN Honolulu
Head-to-Head: Air Force leads the series 14-8-1, Hawaii winning the most recent contest in 2023 at Clarence T.C. Ching Complex. One of the few signature wins of the Chang era, that 23’ Air Force team was in the Top 25 at points that season. Hawaii somehow hasn’t made the trip to Colorado Springs since 2016, nearly a decade.
Three things to look for:
1. Adversity for Alejado
“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face,” the old Mike Tyson quote. Until this past Saturday, nobody had really landed a punch on Hawaii quarterback Micah Alejado. The former Bishop Gorman quarterback was borderline invincible in high school, hardly putting a foot wrong. You can see that confidence in how Alejado carries himself, he’s rightfully got a lot of belief in himself.
Alejado burst onto the scene late last season in stellar showings against Utah State and New Mexico, then parlayed that into a memorable start against Stanford this season. The ankle injury threw a monkey wrench into things, but Timmy Chang said that Alejado entered the Fresno State game relatively healthy.
Alejado finished the Fresno State game 28/47, 219 passing yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Two of those picks came in crucial moments in the fourth quarter, including K’Vion Thunderbird’s pick-six. Hawaii’s defense held Fresno State to under 300 total yards and it wasn’t enough.
Maybe his ankle is still hurting, maybe he was rusty after three weeks off. Whatever the reason, Alejado experienced something foreign to him: he was a big part of why Hawaii lost Saturday.
Now what? It’s too early to clamor for backup quarterback Luke Weaver, but now that adversity has arrived, can Alejado bounce back? All eyes will be on how the freshman gunslinger responds this week.
2. Has Air Force found a solution on offense?
Hard feelings are going to be a trend this fall, with the impending split between the Mountain West and Pac-12. Hawaii experienced that against Fresno State, and Air Force also had an emotional contest against departing Boise State. The Falcons lost 49-37, but might’ve found some answers on offense.
Quarterbacks Josh Johnson and Liam Szarka were going back and forth for the starting job to start the season, but it was Szarka that burst onto the scene against Boise State, finishing 13/18 for 246 passing yards and two touchdowns, and rushing for 110 yards. Sure, the Broncos defense looked poor, but Air Force was looking for someone to step up and Szarka answered the call.
The Falcons put up 445 total yards against Utah State and 500+ on Boise State. This will be defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman’s toughest test since the Arizona game, getting his unit prepared for a triple option that can run and pass.
3. Heavy dose of Sims and Barfield?
Well, if Air Force is that awesome, why did they open as a slight home favorite against the Rainbow Warriors? That would be because the Air Force defense is off to a rough start.
The Falcons were gouged by both the Aggies and Broncos. Their rushing defense ranks 118th-nationally through three games, and 106th in passing yards allowed. There will be opportunities for success in the passing game, but the Falcons defensive line was completely overwhelmed in recent games. Boise State in particular was running at will.
Does Hawaii have the rushing attack to take advantage of this? The Warriors rank 123rd-nationally in rushing offense, running back Landon Sims is averaging 4 yards per carry, and Cam Barfield is averaging 4.2 ypc. Can Hawaii provide the necessary push? Yes, Alejado and the passing attack underwhelmed against Fresno State, but the lack of a reliable running game is playing a role in these problems too.
Prediction:
According to FanDuel, Air Force is a 6.5-point favorite over Hawaii with an o/u set at 53.5. A tight game is expected. As usual with Hawaii road games, I’m naturally skeptical. Hawaii will be playing at 10 a.m. body clock time against the Falcons, and I fear it’ll take too long for the Warriors to wake up.
Air Force found some answers on offense this past weekend, and even with wide receiver Nick Cenacle possibly returning this weekend (listed as questionable), I expect the offense to struggle again. Prove me wrong, Warriors. Give me Rainbow Warriors 13, Falcons 31.
