“If Player X gets a jumper”…
Ben Simmons Disease. If pigs could fly, we’d avoid walking under them, for what should be obvious reasons.
If Amen Thompson gets a jumper, he’ll be anywhere from a top-20 to top-1 player in the NBA, depending on whether “get a jumper” means “hit 35% of his two three-point attempts per game” or “hit 40% of his five attempts per game.
Look – If I inherit one million dollars, I’ve got a great idea for a video game. No, I’m not typing it out – nice try. If I don’t inherit one million dollars – by
far the likeliest outcome – I’m starting a new career as a substitute teacher in a week. It’s easy to fantasize about what Thompson can be if he develops a jumper:
What if he can’t?
Thompson has alternative paths to stardom
It should be said that if Thompson stopped developing right now, and never got one iota better than he currently is, he’d level out at “pretty good”.
But, we don’t evaluate NBA players in a vacuum. We evaluate them relative to their contract. Estimates for the Average Annual Value (AAV) of Thompson’s next deal seem to range from $33 million to $50 million. He’s already a $33 million player:
Can he earn $50 million without a reliable three-pointer?
It’s not a question that will be answered with a rigorous scientific method here. That said, if Thompson can’t hit threes, there are, to my mind, at least two paths he can take that still lead to top 20ish player status. The first is simple: If Thompson can’t hit threes, he needs to hit more twos.
In 2025-26, Thompson hit 76.0% of his field goal attempts between zero and three feet. That’s good, but Giannis Antetokounmpo hit 80.0% of his. The Greek Freak peaked at 83.7% in 2022-23.
Thompson doesn’t need to match Antetokounmpo’s offensive production, but if he’s going to be a primary offensive option without a three-ball, he needs to approximate it. If he can cross that 80% threshold at his current volume, he’ll be such a dominant force at the rim that he might be able to survive as a star player without a three-pointer.
Otherwise, there may be one more way.
Thompson can dominate on defense
It’s been written about in great detail, but last year, Thompson sacrificed some of his defensive impact in favor of an increased offensive workload. He averaged 18.3 points and 5.3 assists per game to 2024-25’s 14.1 and 3.8, but his blocks per game slipped from 1.3 to 0.6.
It’s not (strictly) about the blocks per game, though, is it? We all saw Thompson’s defensive efforts wane last year. It’s hard to even blame him:
But if he wants to earn $50 million, and he can’t hit threes, it can’t happen again.
It’s simple: 14.1 points and 3.8 assists per game along with real Defensive Player of the Year (DPOTY) candidacy is not a $50 million player. Neither is 18.3 points and 5.3 assists without Defensive Player of the Year-ish credentials:
But 18 and 5 along with DPOTY consideration?
That’s approaching max contract territory. It’s also a reasonable, albeit difficult, ask.
Did someone say Ben Simmons? He was as productive offensively as Thompson last season in his prime, and he was always near the top of the DPOTY. At the peak of his powers, LeBron James was the best player in the league on both ends of the floor. Oh, and he could shoot, too.
LeBron James. Giannis Antetokounmpo. Prime Ben Simmons. This is rarified air. Some will suggest that these comparisons air on the ambitious side.
Well, that’s what the article is about – how Thompson can become approximately worth $50 million every season if he doesn’t develop a three-pointer. Either his rim efficiency leaps from “great” to “excellent”, or he manages to be one of the best wing defenders in the NBA as well as a strong secondary playmaker. If he can’t forge either of those paths, I personally cannot imagine how he’ll be a superstar player short of developing a three:
And that’s true for far too many NBA players.
