The ACC continues to boggle our minds as we enter the second day of the Sweet 16.
Two more ACC teams aim for upsets today, so let’s take a look at them, as well as the two from the SEC who are hoping for unexpected victories.
Here’s what to watch for on Saturday. Join the conversation in the comments below.
Is Louisville going to continue the ACC’s trend of success?
The ACC teams have had a collective chip on their shoulder in the NCAA Tournament, and it’s hard to wrap one’s mind around just how good they’ve been compared to how bad we thought they were.
No.
3-seed Louisville was the class of the ACC for much of the season, before Duke got hot and took the regular-season and tournament crowns from them. Still, the Cardinals beat every team in the league save for Duke and Virginia at least once, meaning they are battle-tested from a strong (yes!) conference.
Here’s a look at how the nine ACC tournament teams have fared in the Big Dance. Four (Duke, Notre Dame, Virginia, UNC and Syracuse) have exceeded expectations in my estimation. The other four have met expectations. I’ve also noted at the end of each team’s section how Louisville fared against them this year. Keep in mind that the SEC and Big Ten were considered the strongest conferences by far entering the tourney.
- No. 3-seed Louisville — expected win in first round, beat SEC No. 6-seed Alabama by one point in second round
- No. 3-seed Duke — expected win in first round, dominated Big 12 No. 6-seed Baylor by 23 points in second round, upset SEC No. 2-seed LSU by two in Sweet 16, Louisville went 0-2 against them (lost in overtime and by one point)
- No. 6-seed Notre Dame — proved popular first-round upset pick wrong by beating No. 11-seed Fairfield by 19 points, upset Big Ten No. 3-seed Ohio State by 10 points in second round, upset SEC No. 2-seed Vanderbilt by three points in Sweet 16, Louisville went 1-1 against them (won by 13 points and lost by three)
- No. 10-seed Virginia (First Four team) — beat Big 12 No. 10-seed Arizona State by two points in First Four, upset SEC No. 7-seed Georgia in overtime in first round, pulled off huge upset of Big Ten No. 2-seed Iowa in double overtime in second round, Louisville went 0-1 against them (lost by two points)
- No. 4-seed UNC — expected win in first round, upset Big Ten No. 5-seed Maryland in second round, played best team in country in No. 1-overall seed UConn within 21 points in Sweet 16, Louisville went 2-0 against them (won by eight points and in overtime)
- No. 7-seed NC State — took care of struggling SEC No. 10-seed Tennessee by 15 points in first round, expected loss to Big Ten No. 2-seed Michigan in second round, Louisville went 1-0 against them (won in overtime)
- No. 9-seed Syracuse — upset Big 12 No. 8-seed Iowa State by nine points in first round, expected loss to No. 1-seed UConn in second round, Louisville went 2-0 against them (won by 26 points and 19)
- No. 8-seed Clemson — expected loss to Big Ten No. 9-seed USC in first round (in overtime; potential game-winner in regulation by Tigers came just after buzzer), Louisville went 1-0 against them (won by 11 points)
- No. 9-seed Virginia Tech — expected loss to Big Ten No. 8-seed Oregon in first round by 10 points, Louisville went 1-0 against them (won by 25 points)
All of Louisville’s seven losses this year have come to Sweet 16 teams. We didn’t expect two of those teams—Virginia and Notre Dame—to be here, but now we have to face that reality.
The Cards’ opponent in the Sweet 16, Michigan, has three losses to teams that didn’t make the Sweet 16 with one to Washington and two to Iowa. Who would have thought the Hawkeyes wouldn’t be here?! Yet, that is what we are dealing with.
I have Michigan in my Final Four. But with each passing ACC feat, it’s been looking more and more like they won’t make it to the Elite Eight.
Louisville meets the Wolverines on Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
The Cards lack a true superstar, but their head coach Jeff Walz is a regular in the Elite Eight, while Michigan’s Kim Barnes Arico has only been there once. Do you think Louisville is good enough to get past the Wolverines’ stars in Olivia Olson, Syla Swords and Mila Holloway? Or is Michigan destined to get back to their second-ever Elite Eight? Do you, like me, think Michigan’s ceiling is even higher than the Elite Eight?
With Teonni Key healthy, is Kentucky also better than we think?
With Teonni Key available, Kentucky’s only losses have come to Sweet 16 teams OR Maryland with Kaylene Smikle, and all except the SEC Tournament loss to South Carolina have been close. Their stretch of four weaker losses in six games—to Alabama, Mississippi State, Tennessee and Georgia—came when Key was out with a dislocated elbow.
I don’t think it’s been talked about enough how the Wildcats would likely have a much higher seed had Key not missed a significant chunk of the season. Against No. 4-seed West Virginia in the Round of 32, she led Kentucky in scoring with 19 points (9-for-14 from the field) and was second with 10 rebounds. In the first round, she had nine points, 10 boards, three blocks and two steals. On the season, she is third on the team with 11.4 points per game and second with 7.4 boards; she is second in points per minute, only playing 26.6 per contest.
The loss to the Terrapins came too early in the season to be very relevant, plus, Maryland was on their way to becoming a juggernaut with Smikle available. The other losses with Key didn’t come to just any Sweet 16 teams. No, they were to No. 2-seed Vanderbilt (twice), No. 1-seed South Carolina (twice) and No. 1-seed Texas.
On Feb. 9 in Austin, the Wildcats trailed the Longhorns by just three with 4:46 remaining before Texas pulled away by 11.
Should the Longhorns fear Kentucky entering their Sweet 16 rematch Saturday (3 p.m. ET, ABC)? Do the Wildcats, like No. 4-seed Oklahoma who beat No. 1-seed South Carolina in the regular season, have a shot at knocking off one of the SEC’s two powerhouses? Or do you think the talent gap is just too big in Texas’ favor?
Can Aaliyah Chavez take over to spark an Oklahoma upset?
Yes, Oklahoma has a complete starting five, with each of Raegan Beers, Sahara Williams, Payton Verhulst and Zya Vann capable of being the hero in the Sweet 16.
However, the eyes of most fans are likely on Aaliyah Chavez entering this rematch against the Gamecocks. Not only did she score 15 of the Sooners’ 19 overtime-points to help them pull away from South Carolina by 12 on Jan. 22, but her electrifying energy is made for the big stage, serving as a strong indicator that she may be due for another outburst when the game is on the line on Saturday (5 p.m. ET, ESPN).
It’s going to take a gargantuan effort for Oklahoma to defeat the Gamecocks in an elimination game where they will be locked in tenfold compared to when they slipped up in the regular season. Chavez, though just a freshman, is the best thing the Sooners have going for them.
Do you agree that Chavez is the key to this game for Oklahoma? Do you think she will rise to the occasion?
Will Virginia’s nothing-to-lose attitude lead them into the Elite Eight?
If you’re not already familiar with the player who has led Virginia’s improbable tournament run, Kymora Johnson is one of only two players in the nation who is top 25 in both points and assists per game with 19.5 (No. 24) and 5.8 (No. 15), respectively.
The 5-foot-7 junior guard, who plays in her hometown of Charlottesville, is a three-time All-ACC honoree (First Team the past two years). She is sixth in the country with three made 3s per contest at a very good 36.1 percent clip, and leads the Cavaliers in steals per game (2.1) and free throw percentage (85.2), both very good as well. Her team leans on her heavily, as her 37.1 minutes per game (seventh in Division I) are 7.5 ahead of the Cavalier with the next-most (Paris Clark). Clark (9.4 points per game) is also second in scoring average, and Johnson more than doubles her.
It would be unwise to doubt this UVA team, as they’ve now beaten an Iowa team that had a good shot at the Elite Eight or beyond. Johnson seems willing to do whatever it takes to keep proving the world wrong, averaging 24.3 points, five helpers and 6.3 boards in the tourney. And the Cavaliers’ biggest advantage is that they are playing with house money—nobody expected them to get this far.
They face No. 3-seed TCU on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).
Do you think Johnson can outduel Olivia Miles in a battle between two of the best players in the country? Do you think the Cavs will thrive with all the pressure on the Horned Frogs? Or will TCU take advantage of not having to face Iowa and continue their march toward the Final Four?
