Penn State tries to close out the regular season with a three-game winning streak as both teams fight for bowl eligibility.
Penn State (5-6, 2-6) vs. Rutgers (5-6, 2-6)
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m., SHI Stadium, Piscataway,
NJ
The Betting Line: Penn State -10.5
TV: BTN, 3:30 p.m., Jeff Levering (play-by-play), Jake Butt (analyst), Brooke Fletcher (sideline)
Weather: A cool but clear day, with sunshine and a high of 43 that falls to the upper 20s at night.
COACHES:
Terry Smith (Interim):
PENN STATE RECORD: 2-3, 1st Year
OVERALL RECORD: 2-3, 1st Year
VS. RUTGERS: 0-0
Greg Schiano:
RUTGERS RECORD: 99-107, 17th Year
OVERALL RECORD: Same
VS. PENN STATE: 0-4
FUN FACTS
Kaytron Allen can become the first player in program history with 4,000 career rushing yards with at least 46 rushing yards against Rutgers…Nicholas Singleton is tied with Saquon Barkley for both career rushing touchdowns (43) and total touchdowns (53)…Ethan Grunkemeyer became the first Penn State quarterback to complete over 90% of attempts in a game (10 or more attempts) since Todd Blackledge in 1981 against Syracuse…Penn State is on a 17-game win streak against Rutgers, and leads the all-time series 32-2
RUTGERS OFFENSE VS. PENN STATE DEFENSE
Rutgers offense has made strides that have helped them get to the brink of bowl eligibility. While they have proven to be more productive than recent years, they still struggled to get much going against the best defenses on their schedule, including Oregon, Illinois and Ohio State.
Athan Kaliakmanis, who spent time as QB1 at Minnesota, has been solid but not spectacular leading the Scarlet Knights offense. He is completing 61.6% of passes with 17 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. He has at least 250 passing yards in eight games this season, including a season-high 389 against Washington. However, he only tossed for 79 yards against Oregon, and 81 last Saturday against Ohio State.
Kaliakmanis does a good job of spreading the ball evenly among his top three targets, KJ Duff, Ian Strong, and DT Sheffield. It’s been typical for one of the three to get over 100 yards most weeks depending who has the most favorable match-up in the secondary. Duff is the big-play threat among the three, averaging 17.4 yards per catch and a team-leading six touchdown receptions.
Kaliakmanis has not had much help from the offensive line, which has given up 35 sacks on the year. They struggled to offer much protection at all at several points, allowing seven sacks to Minnesota, five to Purdue, and four against the Buckeyes top-ranked defense. Penn State has finally been able to unleash its pass rush in recent weeks, which could make for a long afternoon for Kaliakmanis.
Antwan Raymond is the workhorse back who carries nearly all of the rushing load for the Scarlet Knights. It’s not uncommon for him to reach nearly 30 carries in a game, including 41 against Maryland on a day where he ran for 240 yards.
PENN STATE OFFENSE VS. RUTGERS DEFENSE
While the Scarlets Knight offense has made strides, the defense has taken a large step back. This is not a familiar Rutgers squad from the last few years with a solid defense that lost due to an inability to put points on the scoreboard.
The defense has failed to find much to rally around this fall. They rarely make plays in the backfield, and are averaging less than a sack a game. They are one of the worst teams in the nation at stopping the run, giving up more than 200 yards per game. Overall, they are giving up 425.9 yards per game as well as a tick over 31 points per game. It’s been just been a bad season overall on the defensive side of the ball, regularly getting pushed around and allowing big games from even the most subpar offenses on the schedule.
This could be great match-up for a Penn State offense that has finally found something in the run game, with its veteran offensive line leading the charge and opening lanes for Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Allen is coming off back-to-back Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week performances, and will look to build on the all-time rushing yards mark he overtook against Nebraska.
Penn State’s offensive gameplan should be simple and predictable — plenty of Allen and Singleton, then setting up the play-action that Ethan Grunkemeyer operated so successfully against the Huskers. The redshirt freshman only threw the ball 12 times in the 37-10 victory, but completed all but one attempt which could have easily been a pass interference call.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Rutgers kicker Jai Patel has made 13 of 18 field goals on the year, with a long of 51 yards. Rutgers punter Jakob Anderson has a big leg that can flip the field, and is averaging 44.1 yards per punt with several punts over 60 yards.
PREDICTION
Penn State-31, Rutgers-10
A few weeks back, I could easily see a scenario where a motivated Scarlet Knights squad rallied around Schiano to give him a win over a depleted Penn State team. However, this is no longer the case with the Nittany Lions finding ways to take over both lines of scrimmage in performances more aligned with expectations over the last three weeks.
Penn State’s front seven should be able to get into Kaliakmanis face early and often, making it difficult for the Scarlet Knights to find rhythm in a pass-heavy attack they have been seeking. If the offensive line can continue the inspired play from the last six quarters, Allen and Singleton should have no problem moving the chains and wearing down the Rutgers defense while controlling the clock. Both have memorable afternoons, with Singleton becoming the all-time touchdowns leader in program history, and Allen continuing his hot streak with a 200-yard rushing game. The Nittany Lions close out the regular season with a workmanlike victory that sends them to a bowl game.
