The Atlanta Falcons defense has caught many by surprise. Even the most faithful among Dirty Bird Nation didn’t anticipate the Falcons having one of the top passing defenses in the league through five weeks played.
The defense has overcome injuries and outbested well-respected offensive minds, but Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills offer the most formidable challenge yet. So, what questions do they need to answer to pass this test?
Can they neutralize the tight ends?
The Bills tight ends have played a critical role in the passing offense
over the first five weeks of play. Buffalo leads the NFL with 395 receiving yards from their tight ends, 287 of which belong to Dalton Kincaid. Atlanta has yet to face a passing attack that relies so heavily on tight ends, and it will be interesting to see how defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich gameplans for this unique passing offense.
If things are business as usual, the Falcons will deploy a mix of different blitzes and sim pressures, some of which will take Devine Deablo out of coverage. The Falcons have the highest blitz rate in the league at 43.5%. However, Deablo is the team’s best coverage linebacker, so should his time be spent mugging the A gap when a team is proficient at using its TEs in the passing game, on top of having to worry about Josh Allen’s legs? This could be a game where we see Deablo utilized almost exclusively in coverage.
There’s also a chance the Falcons use Jessie Bates in key situations to match up with Kincaid. Kincaid has the second most yards (193) among all TEs against zone coverage, but hasn’t been as destructive against man. The Falcons are hovering around league average in terms of man coverage rate at 21.6% per PFF. This could be a signature Jessie Bates game if this defense can be sound in coverage and prevent Josh Allen from running around.
How will they contain Josh Allen?
You can’t stop him; you can only hope to contain him. According to NFL Pro, Josh Allen has scrambled on 19.8% of his dropbacks this season, the 2nd-highest mark among qualified quarterbacks. Allen has 208 rushing yards (most in the league) and 83 passing yards (7th-most) on scrambles. Teams have failed to contain the best quarterback in the league this season, and if the Falcons want to give themselves a shot at winning this game, they’ll need to do better than those that came before them.
The Falcons appear to have legitimate solutions on paper, but the team has yet to prove it. We haven’t seen Ulbrich utilize ILB Devine Deablo as a QB spy, but this seems like a good time to tap into the linebacker’s athleticism. Deablo has the opportunity to be the X-factor in this game, and this defense will need to lean on his natural gifts. OLB Jalon Walker is another player who can be used in this capacity. Walker could be deployed as a spy in the 5-man fronts the Falcons like to use. It doesn’t take much creativity or effort to add these wrinkles.
The entire front will be tested, and staying disciplined is how they can come out on top. Josh Allen wants pass rushers to get aggressive and overplay their lanes and responsibilities, which makes it easier for him to do damage with his legs. Interior players need to push the pocket and keep their eyes on the QB, while those rushing from the edge need to condense the pocket as they work upfield. Easier said than done, especially when the Bills offense has registered the lowest pressure rate (22.3%) in the NextGenStats database. The Falcons defense has registered the 7th-highest pressure rate in that same database. This is where the rubber meets the road for these two groups.
Can the run defense make a stand?
While Allen gets all the attention, James Cook is no slouch, and when he’s kept in check like he was last against the New England Patriots, the Bills offense doesn’t look the same. Even with all the extra preparation, it’s very likely Allen is going to do something once or twice with his legs that you can’t coach or gameplan for, so that means Cook has to be a non-factor when the ball is put in his hands.
The Falcons defense hasn’t quite been exposed on the ground yet, but it is the team’s evident weakness. The Falcons are ranked 27th in EPA/Rush (+0.04) and 23rd in rushing yards per play (4.6). The Commanders broke off multiple explosive runs in Week 4, and the Bills are likely coming into the game with the same mindset as the Falcons: whoever runs the ball most effectively will likely win. That means Atlanta’s defense can’t allow Buffalo to churn out long, time-consuming drives.
The Falcons attacking front has shown a lot of promise, but they’ll need to stay under control or risk creating lanes and opportunities for the Bills rushing offense. Washington had success running gap concepts against Atlanta. Using gap concepts such as counter and trap is one way Buffalo could take advantage of the Falcons defensive ideology.
The Patriots game plan wasn’t complicated. They played clean football and executed their assignments, while the Bills shot themselves in the foot with mistake after mistake. It’s doubtful Atlanta will be gifted 11 penalties in this game, but this Bills team has shown itself to be sloppy.
This Falcons defense is facing one of the best quarterbacks and offenses in the league, a true measuring stick for their potential. It won’t be easy, but this isn’t a hopeless endeavor. There is a clear avenue to success, and it’s on the defense to go out and make it a reality.
