Every year, the great folks at MLB Trade Rumors does a masterful job at trying to predict what players who are eligible for arbitration will make for the following season. This year’s version has quite a few numbers for the Phillies that are going to raise an eyebrow.
- Garrett Stubbs: $1MM
- Brandon Marsh: $8.3MM
- Jhoan Duran: $10.9MM
- Bryson Stott: $9.2MM
- Tanner Banks: $1.4MM
- Derek Hill: $1.5MM
- Rafael Marchán: $1MM
- Bryan De La Cruz: $1.2MM
- Orion Kerkering: $1.5MM
For the first time in a while, the Phillies don’t have anyone projected to make less than $1 million in arbitration. Maybe it’s just me that finds that interesting. However, there are some pretty easy and pretty complicated decisions
to make here.
The easiest is that they’re going to pick one of those catchers to retain. Maybe it’ll be through arbitration, maybe it’ll be through the split contract that Stubbs had last year where he was paid a decent amount of money to spend time in the minor leagues. However, neither are actually good at hitting the baseball, so hopefully the team looks to upgrade that position a bit better somehow.
de la Cruz is likely someone that is sent on his way. He was a good bench bat, but even that paltry amount could be spent better elsewhere on the roster. Banks might be an interesting choice, but when he came back from his injury, he was better so they’ll probably keep him around as a left handed option in the bullpen. Derek Hill is definitely a maybe, if not a probably when it comes to retaining his rights. He was a very good option for them off the bench and has the ability to play center field, something the team values in its outfield bench bats. That’s a good amount that could be settled for, meaning he’ll probably return in 2027.
The names at the top are a little more obvious. Stott and Duran are guarantees to return, if not gain extensions once the new financial landscape of the game is settled in CBA negotiations.
It’s the final two that will be discussed heavily in the coming weeks.
Brandon Marsh was an All-Star in the first half before cratering in the final two months. There was nothing redeemable about his game that we could pick out. He was just bad at everything he did at the plate once the players returned from their mid-July break. Any ideas he had about being something other than a platoon bat have evaporated; this is what he is. He was so bad that his spot on the roster feels tenuous. $8 million is nothing to sneeze at for a platoon bat, making it more of a question mark that he returns. My guess is that the team works the trade phones heavily for Marsh, trying to see if there is a team that is willing to work with him to get him back to where he was in the first half of the season, maybe even a bit more. The Phillies’ hitting program isn’t exactly one of national import, so there could be another team interested in seeing what they can do. In the end, I’ll bet he is wearing another uniform once 2027 begins.
Orion Kerkering is another case where we want the endgame to be obvious, but it may not be. He is such an obvious case of needing a change of scenery, yet the stuff he has is enough that the Phillies may still think they can do something with him. The amount of money he is projected to make should not be an issue and may actually make him enticing to another team in a trade, should the Phillies decided to shop him around. That’s more or less where I believe this one ends up, with another team taking the Phillies up on their offer and acquiring him to try and see if he can turn things around in a different environment. I’d be wary if someone like the Dodgers or Brewers or Rays sniffs around him, but if that’s what it would take, the team really should be moving on from him.
