For several teams, the question of who will be their starters on opening night/day has already been answered at this point. In the case of the Golden State Warriors, that question is still partially in limbo
due to recent injury developments, most notably Moses Moody, who will miss the regular season opener due to a calf strain. Pending further unfortunate occurrences, it is almost assured that Steph Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green will comprise four of the five starting slots.
The huge question mark left, therefore, is who will slot into the final spot — and determine whether Steve Kerr will go with a traditional five-man to pair with Green at the frontcourt or have Green immediately slot into the five and start the season festivities with a small-ball bang.
In that regard, there are two immediate candidates that come to mind.
Jonathan Kuminga
Despite a minor ankle tweak suffered by Kuminga against the Portland Trail Blazers that resulted in an ejection and a $35,000 fine, the expectation is that he will be ready to go on Tuesday against the Los Angeles Lakers. If that turns out to be the case, Kerr will have his athletic forward at his disposal to slot into the four next to Green, allowing them to immediately play small (or save that option for the later stages of the game, should it be needed).
Kuminga has had a pretty noteworthy preseason, with a renewed emphasis on ball movement and creating passing windows off of the advantages he has been generating. Per 75 possessions in the preseason, Kuminga put up 16.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 9.4 assists, albeit with 7.9 turnovers to offset the high assists number per 75. Nonetheless, the focus on trying to find his open teammates is highly appreciated and is something that Kerr has commended publicly.
It hasn’t escaped my attention that Kerr has had Kuminga placed in spots where he could force defenses to collapse inward, resulting in openings being created for himself or for his teammates. He was deemed worthy enough to be the focus of a play once ran for Kevin Durant and Andrew Wiggins, and one that was run quite a few times for Butler last season.
Along with an emphasis on crashing the boards and tracking down rebounds, Kuminga has certainly made a case for himself as a rotation mainstay, let alone a starter (at least, situationally). But perhaps the one thing that could give Kerr pause: the fit with Butler. In 123 non-garbage-time minutes last season of the Butler-Kuminga pairing, the Warriors were outscored by nearly five points per 100 possessions; in 36 minutes of the Butler-Kuminga-Green trio, the Warriors were blitzed by 24 points per 100 possessions.
But all the data above could be set aside by one simple necessity: someone who would need to be guard Luka Dončić’s primary defender, a role that Moody was set to take and a role that perhaps only Kuminga can shoulder with Moody’s absence.
Al Horford
If Kerr were to go with a “traditional” five (in the sense that he would be putting someone with the size to suit that position) he would have two options at his disposal: Al Horford or Quinten Post, both non-traditional in the sense that they both space the floor with their outside shooting ability.
Horford would be the obvious choice over Post due to his experience and defensive pedigree, one that allows him to be much more versatile on that end of the floor over the second-year Dutch center. Much has been said (and witnessed) about Horford’s ability to play a variety of coverages, but perhaps the most intriguing aspect of his defense is allowing Green to slot into a more adventurous defensive role at the four, with Horford playing the role of rim protector, help defender, and last line of defense.
A center spacing the floor is a luxury Curry and Kerr haven’t had much of during their decade-long collaboration. Horford opens the playbook further and expands Kerr’s tactical repertoire. Opponents will not only have to worry about the possibility of Curry coming off of one or multiple screens — they will have to worry about whether Horford chooses to dive toward the rim:
Or chooses to stay put in pick-and-pop situations:
Or even more confusing for opponents: Horford being the recipient of an off-ball screen by a smaller teammate, who may choose to screen his own man. Often guarded by opposing bigs unaccustomed to navigating their way around screens, Horford will most likely find himself open in such scenarios.
While Horford may be Kerr’s choice as the fifth starter, it remains to be seen if Horford will close games. At 39-years old, Horford needs to be preserved as much as possible; the Boston Celtics were able to do by limiting Horford to 27.7 minutes per game last season and preventing him from playing both games of back-t0-back slates. It’s a no-brainer that the typically precautionary Warriors medical staff led by Rick Celebrini will take an equally cautious approach, if not more.
Wild Cards
Kerr is the kind of coach who will zag when everyone expects him to zig. It’s not completely out of the question that his zag will come in the form of an unexpected name to fill the fifth-starter spot.
Rookie Will Richard has had a promising preseason, flashing a skillset that is complementary on both ends of the floor. As a low-usage 3-and-D guard who compensates for his small stature (6’3”) with a relatively enormous wingspan (6’10”), Richard has been a willing cutter, passer, and shooter, whose quick gather and good form provides him with a promising base as an outside marksman. The hallmark of his defense has been how fundamentally sound he has been on close-outs, screen navigation, and in “blender” situations — a level of polish rarely seen in rookies.
Kerr may also opt to go with Post over Horford. While unlikely, the rationale for doing so may be due to Post’s size combined with the ability to replicate Horford’s shooting and spacing, all of which act as potential foils to Deandre Ayton. However, with the Lakers employing a matchup-hunting specialist in Dončić, Post may be too much of a target that can compromise the Warriors’ defensive framework.
Buddy Hield isn’t a name to be counted out. But Kerr may prefer to have a second ball-handling guard next to Curry in order to maximize Curry’s off-ball excellence. Hield doesn’t fit that profile despite his ability to space the floor and shoot the ball, while his less-than-stellar preseason performance hasn’t really helped his stock.
