In watching Sean Manaea’s 2026 debut from the stands at Citi Field, it looked like the likable lefty was getting away with something against the Pirates. Velocity isn’t everything when it comes to pitching, but it definitely matters. Manaea averaged 89 miles per hour with his fastball yesterday afternoon, and his sweeper averaged just 75 miles per hour. His changeup averaged 84.
For context, all three of those pitches are down two miles per hour from their 2025 averages. And Manaea was in the 14th
percentile of pitchers with an average fastball of 91.7 miles per hour last year. If his current averages were to continue, he’d certainly rank even lower.
In one-and-one-third innings against the Pirates’ best available hitters, Manaea gets credit for making it work. He struck out two, walked two, and gave up a hit, but he didn’t allow any runs. But you got the feeling that everyone in the stands and Mets manager Carlos Mendoza knew that the team couldn’t stick with him for too much longer in a tight game.
It’s still very early, and for what it’s worth, both Manaea and Mendoza downplayed concerns about the lefty’s velocity when the topic arose in spring training. But if things don’t improve, it’s hard not to be alarmed by the current reality. Even with the two extra miles per hour that he had last year, Manaea gave up a staggering 1.93 home runs per nine innings, the primary reason he finished the injury-shortened year with a 5.64 ERA.
Right now, it’s not easy to figure out which game the Mets can get him into next. It’s for the best that the team doesn’t face a division rival until late April, as Manaea’s current stuff doesn’t look like it’ll play well against more formidable teams like the Phillies and Braves. But the Mets are set to play four games in San Francisco immediately after their three-game series with the Cardinals that begins tonight.
St. Louis might be an afterthought in the projected standings, but the Giants very much are not. And coming off a season that saw the Mets miss the postseason by one game, it’s tough to go into a series like that with one of the pitchers in your bullpen looking like he needs to get work in extremely low-leverage situations to see if he can regain his past stuff.
Manaea dealt with a loose body in his elbow last year and opted to avoid surgery over the offseason. If things don’t improve with his velocity, it wouldn’t be a stretch to think that an elbow issue like that could be used to justify an injured list stint. A rehab assignment that allowed him to get more work would certainly be appealing from our perspective as fans.
We’ll certainly be rooting or Manaea to get some velocity back or figure out a way to be effective in spite of the decline he’s seeing right now. If that doesn’t happen or it goes poorly, though, the Mets will be in a bit of a predicament with this season and next remaining on Manaea’s three-year, $75 million deal.
