When the Yankees were besieged by injuries to pitchers at the outset of the season, among the most concerning was Luis Gil’s lat strain. After earning AL Rookie of the Year honors in 2024 on the strength of a 15-win, 3.50 ERA campaign, the right-hander was expected to serve as a key cog in this year’s rotation. Instead, his debut was delayed until last month. Since that time, he’s served as a welcome addition to a rotation that had lost ace Gerrit Cole and mainstay Clarke Schmidt for the season.
In seven starts since coming off the IL, Gil’s results have been all the Yankees could have asked for. Since his first outing, a five-run, 3.1-inning clunker in Miami, the 27-year-old has gone 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA, throwing at least five innings in each start and at least 90 pitches in all but one. In a rotation that features two rookies (Will Warren and Cam Schlittler), Gil has been a stabilizing force, providing quality innings during a crucial stretch for the Yankees.
As the Dominican native prepares to take the bump tonight at Fenway Park, though, there are some major red flags in his game. Among all starters with at least seven starts, only Lance McCullers Jr. has a higher walk rate than Gil’s 5.9 per nine. And the Astro’s ERA on the season (6.97) provides an alarming counterpoint to Gil’s surface-level success. The good news is Gil led all of baseball with 77 walks last season, demonstrating he can sustain an unorthodox level of success while permitting what for most would be an untenable number of free passes. Still, his walk rate has jumped more than a walk per game over last season. And some of the areas where Gil excelled last year to counterbalance his control issues have been lacking so far this season.
Last year, the right-hander was missing bats at above average rates, inducing whiffs on 29 percent of swings and punching out 26.8 percent of batters he faced. That ability to limit contact is critical when dealing with traffic on the bases caused by an excess of walks. So far this year, those numbers are down to a 23 percent whiff rate and 19.5 percent strikeout rate, both well below league average. Walks plus contact equals runs, plain and simple. It’s why just about any metric out there expects some major regression from Gil — his 3.31 ERA stands in stark opposition to his 4.88 expected ERA.
There are a couple of potential explanations for this discrepancy — either of which can be interpreted as luck, skill, or something in between. The first is that Gil is inducing significantly more weak contact than he did last year. Last year, 37.4 percent of balls put in play against him were hit at 95 mph or higher, a number that’s dropped to 35.6 percent this year. While that discrepancy may seem minor, it’s the difference between slightly above average and elite. The other explanation is a simple case of clutch. Statcast’s Run Value statistic, which measures a pitcher’s performance based on the outcome of each pitch, has Gil at -2 overall. But in its leverage-based version of the statistic, which takes into account game situation, has him at +3, a five-run swing based on his ability to perform better in clutch spots.
This distinction has been particularly relevant for Gil’s four-seamer, against which opponents are hitting .279 with a .426 slugging percentage overall. Both his average pitch speed (95.6 mph) and max pitch speed (98.8 mph) are down considerably from last year, when they were 96.6 mph and 100.6 mph, respectively. Key to the starter’s ability to build on his strong results so far this year will be whether that is a matter of rust and building back up to full strength or a long-term diminishing of his stuff.
When Luis Gil takes the mound tonight, don’t simply focus on his final line. Keep an eye on his fastball velocity, his ability to miss bats, how many free passes he allows, and whether he continues to dial it up in clutch situations. Including tonight, he likely has just three or four more starts for the rest of the regular season, making those outings not just vital opportunities for the Yankees to improve their playoff positioning but windows for key insights into the pitcher Gil could be if called upon to start an important game in October, a highly likely scenario.
